【摘要】：漳衛(wèi)河所屬的海河流域在我國政治、經(jīng)濟、文化領域占有重要地位,也是我國水旱災害十分嚴重的地區(qū),所以,洪水預報工作顯得尤為重要。本文介紹了以EasyDHM分布式水文模型為基礎的洪水預報模型,并在此基礎上增加了考慮氣象因素的數(shù)值預報和考慮下墊面變化情況的坡洼、水庫、引水口門對預報結(jié)果的干預功能。根據(jù)實際情況對原有EasyDHM作出了改進,為漳衛(wèi)河流域洪水預報提供了有力的依據(jù)。(1)根據(jù)漳衛(wèi)河流域站點、水系、氣象、地形、土壤等情況建立了漳衛(wèi)河流域分布式水文模型,并根據(jù)歷史洪水進行了參數(shù)率定,結(jié)果表明,EasyDHM分布式水文模型在漳衛(wèi)河地區(qū)具有較好的適應性,可以支持洪水預報工作。(2)使用率定整理后的參數(shù),進行歷史洪水模擬驗證和實時洪水的預報,將實時洪水預報結(jié)果與考慮數(shù)值預報的結(jié)果對比分析,表明數(shù)值預報可以作為降雨輸入。(3)將漳衛(wèi)河流域的大小水庫分別考慮,大水庫作為可控流量的點,中小水庫以及蓄滯洪區(qū)按照坡洼考慮,并根據(jù)實際情況,增設了引水口門,用來控制徑流量,結(jié)果表明,這些措施一定程度上反映了下墊面變化對洪水預報的影響。
[Abstract]:The Haihe River Basin, which belongs to the Zhangwei River, plays an important role in the political, economic and cultural fields of our country, and is also a very serious area of flood and drought disasters in China. Therefore, flood forecasting is particularly important. In this paper, a flood forecasting model based on EasyDHM distributed hydrological model is introduced, and on this basis, the intervention function of Powa, reservoir and diversion gate considering the change of underlying surface to forecast results is added. According to the actual situation, the original EasyDHM is improved, which provides a powerful basis for flood forecast in Zhangwei River basin. (1) according to the station, water system, meteorology, topography, soil and so on, the distributed hydrological model of Zhangwei River basin is established. The results show that the EasyDHM distributed hydrological model has good adaptability in Zhangwei River area and can support flood forecast work. (2) the parameters after the utilization rate are determined. The results of historical flood simulation and real time flood forecasting are compared with the results of numerical forecast. The results show that numerical forecast can be used as rainfall input. (3) the size and size of reservoirs in Zhangwei River Basin are considered separately. The large reservoir is the point of controllable discharge, the small and medium reservoirs and the flood storage and detention areas are considered according to the slope depression, and according to the actual situation, the diversion gate is added to control the runoff. The results show that, To some extent, these measures reflect the influence of the change of underlying surface on flood forecast.
【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV124;TV697.11

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