本文選題：金融穩(wěn)定性評估 + 金融創(chuàng)新��； 參考：《上海師范大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：金融業(yè)的穩(wěn)定與否與政治、經(jīng)濟和社會穩(wěn)定關系密切。金融危機的頻繁發(fā)生,更是使得金融穩(wěn)定問題越來越受到世界各國的關注。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)于2011年6月首次對中國金融穩(wěn)定進行了評估,強調(diào)中國政府需盡快加強金融穩(wěn)定評估體系的構(gòu)建。目前對我國金融穩(wěn)定評估的研究主要側(cè)重于定性分析,定量研究也主要以銀行脆弱性指數(shù)或者金融脆弱性指數(shù)作為衡量金融穩(wěn)定的代理變量來對金融體系的穩(wěn)定性進行度量,并沒有對我國金融穩(wěn)定性進行整體上的測度。因此針對我國國情建立綜合性指標體系勢在必行。本文首先在理論層面上總結(jié)了金融穩(wěn)定機制的相關理論,進一步確定了隨著金融的發(fā)展和創(chuàng)新,現(xiàn)階段金融穩(wěn)定的內(nèi)涵,闡述了金融穩(wěn)定的特征。列出了宏觀經(jīng)濟金融因素、金融系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部因素、國際金融環(huán)境因素這三個方面影響金融穩(wěn)定性的因素,并從理論機制上闡述各個因素對于金融穩(wěn)定性的影響機理。在實證部分,通過借鑒前人研究,結(jié)合數(shù)據(jù)的可得性,選取了宏觀經(jīng)濟金融因素、金融系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部因素、國際金融環(huán)境因素三個方面共21個指標,構(gòu)建出了適應現(xiàn)代金融發(fā)展狀況的我國金融穩(wěn)定性指標體系。首先使用主成分分析將21個指標聚成了6大類,分別是與國際金融環(huán)境沖擊因素相關的類別、與銀行子系統(tǒng)運行情況相關的類別、與貨幣金融市場風險因素相關的類別、與宏觀經(jīng)濟運行密切相關的類別、與資本市場子系統(tǒng)風險密切相關的類別以及與財政風險密切相關的類別,通過旋轉(zhuǎn)成分矩陣發(fā)現(xiàn)與國際金融環(huán)境沖擊因素相關的因素占的比重最大,為33.06%。在對比了諸多評估方法后,選取BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡法進行評估預警,運用1997年至2012年的數(shù)據(jù)對所構(gòu)建的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡進行培訓,得到了可以針對我國現(xiàn)實進行預警的網(wǎng)絡,隨之帶入2013年的數(shù)據(jù),得出了結(jié)論,2014年我國的金融環(huán)境總體處于相對穩(wěn)定的狀態(tài),其中銀行子系統(tǒng)與財政風險、國際金融環(huán)境處于較為穩(wěn)定的狀態(tài),貨幣金融系統(tǒng)、宏觀經(jīng)濟、資本市場子系統(tǒng)處于中度風險的狀態(tài),最后針對這一結(jié)論進行的分析。
[Abstract]:The stability of the financial industry is closely related to political, economic and social stability. The frequent occurrence of financial crisis makes the problem of financial stability more and more concerned all over the world. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) made its first assessment of China's financial stability in June 2011, stressing the need for the Chinese government to strengthen the construction of a financial stability assessment system as soon as possible. At present, the research of financial stability assessment in our country mainly focuses on qualitative analysis, and quantitative research also measures the stability of financial system mainly by using bank vulnerability index or financial vulnerability index as proxy variable to measure financial stability. There is no overall measure of financial stability in China. Therefore, it is imperative to establish a comprehensive index system for China's national conditions. This paper first summarizes the relevant theories of financial stability mechanism at the theoretical level, further determines the connotation of financial stability at present with the development and innovation of finance, and expounds the characteristics of financial stability. This paper lists three factors that influence financial stability from three aspects: macroeconomic and financial factors, internal factors of financial system, and international financial environment factors, and expounds the influence mechanism of each factor on financial stability from the theoretical mechanism. In the empirical part, by drawing lessons from previous studies and combining with the availability of data, this paper selects 21 indicators in three aspects: macroeconomic and financial factors, internal factors of financial system and international financial environment factors. The index system of China's financial stability is constructed, which adapts to the development of modern finance. Firstly, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used to group 21 indicators into 6 categories, which are related to the impact factors of the international financial environment, to the operation of the banking subsystem, to the risk factors in the money and financial markets, and to the risk factors in the money and financial markets. Categories closely related to macroeconomic operations, closely related to risks in the capital market subsystem, and closely related to fiscal risks, The proportion of factors related to the impact factors of international financial environment was found to be the largest (33.06) by rotating component matrix. After comparing many evaluation methods, the BP neural network method is selected to evaluate the early warning, and the data from 1997 to 2012 are used to train the neural network, and the network which can be used to predict the reality of our country is obtained. With the data in 2013, the conclusion is drawn that the financial environment of our country in 2014 is relatively stable, in which the banking subsystem and financial risk, the international financial environment is in a more stable state, the monetary and financial system, the macroeconomic, The capital market subsystem is in the state of moderate risk.
【學位授予單位】：上海師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F832

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