本文選題：制度環(huán)境　切入點(diǎn)：金融開放　出處：《暨南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)“突然停止”是指一個(gè)國(guó)家的資本流入在短期內(nèi)急劇下降并對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成重創(chuàng)的現(xiàn)象。突然停止的爆發(fā)會(huì)造成金融市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)蕩與恐慌,導(dǎo)致資產(chǎn)價(jià)格下跌、貨幣貶值、產(chǎn)出下降、實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條等一系列后果。本文的研究對(duì)有關(guān)制度環(huán)境的建設(shè)與金融開放政策的設(shè)計(jì)具有一定的導(dǎo)向性作用,研究結(jié)論有助于為國(guó)家制定相關(guān)政策以及決定政策落實(shí)的時(shí)機(jī)順序提供相應(yīng)理論依據(jù)與實(shí)證支持。本文以1995-2012年全球106個(gè)國(guó)家作為研究對(duì)象,通過邏輯回歸與泊松回歸模型,探討以全球治理指標(biāo)、經(jīng)濟(jì)自由化指數(shù)、Hofstede文化六維度為代表的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化三方面的制度環(huán)境與金融開放對(duì)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)突然停止發(fā)生與否以及發(fā)生頻率的影響。實(shí)證分析發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)政治制度環(huán)境的改善能夠在當(dāng)期降低突然停止發(fā)生的可能性。(2)經(jīng)濟(jì)自由化與突然停止當(dāng)期發(fā)生與否間呈倒U型關(guān)系,而在引入政治制度環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)自由化的交互項(xiàng)之后,交互項(xiàng)與突然停止間呈顯著的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。(3)文化制度環(huán)境中,僅不確定性回避文化與突然停止的發(fā)生頻率間存在正向變動(dòng)關(guān)系。(4)金融開放可以降低樣本期間突然停止發(fā)生的頻率,但與當(dāng)期突然停止發(fā)生的概率間不存在顯著的線性或者曲線關(guān)系。同時(shí),隨著政治制度環(huán)境由極差逐漸改善,實(shí)施金融開放對(duì)突然停止當(dāng)期發(fā)生與否存在先增后降的影響。
[Abstract]:"sudden cessation" of international capital flows is a phenomenon in which capital inflows to a country fall sharply in the short term and cause severe economic damage. A sudden halt in capital flows can cause turmoil and panic in financial markets and lead to a fall in asset prices. A series of consequences, such as devaluation of currency, decline of output, depression of real economy, etc., the research in this paper has certain guiding effect on the construction of institutional environment and the design of financial opening policy. The conclusions are helpful to provide theoretical basis and empirical support for countries to formulate relevant policies and decide the timing sequence of policy implementation. This paper takes 106 countries in the world from 1995 to 2012 as the research object, through logical regression and Poisson regression model. This paper discusses politics and economy represented by global governance index, economic liberalization index and Hofstede culture. The impact of the three aspects of cultural institutional environment and financial opening on the sudden stoppage of international capital flows and the frequency of occurrence. The empirical analysis shows that the improvement of the political institutional environment can reduce the sudden stoppage in the current period. Possibility 2) the relationship between economic liberalization and sudden cessation is inversely U-shaped. After introducing the interaction between political institutional environment and economic liberalization, there is a significant negative correlation between the interaction item and sudden cessation. There is only a positive change relationship between the culture of uncertainty avoidance and the frequency of sudden cessation. (4) Financial openness can reduce the frequency of sudden stoppage during the sample period. However, there is no significant linear or curvilinear relationship between the probability of sudden stoppage in the current period. At the same time, with the gradual improvement of the political system environment, the effect of financial opening on the occurrence or not of sudden stoppage in the current period is increased first and then decreased.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F831.6

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