本文選題：人民幣國際化　切入點：資本賬戶開放　出處：《吉林大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：我國的人民幣國際化是在經(jīng)歷了數(shù)十年的人民幣非國際化政策階段、非國際化政策調(diào)整階段后,逐漸過渡到的人民幣國際化政策階段。從人民幣走出國門的情況來看,人民幣從嚴密的禁止境外流通到逐步放開限制、開始在周邊國家進行邊境貿(mào)易結(jié)算,再到與世界上許多非周邊國家建立經(jīng)濟合作和貿(mào)易往來,走出了一條從“人民幣周邊化”發(fā)展成為“人民幣區(qū)域化”,又逐漸成為“人民幣國際化”的道路。人民幣自2016年10月1日起加入了SDR特別提款權(quán)貨幣籃子,開創(chuàng)了新興國家貨幣加入世界貨幣籃子的首例,成為了全球第五種加入特別提款權(quán)的貨幣。這項進程昭示著我國政府對人民幣國際化進程的重視,也顯示了國際貨幣基金組織對人民幣及我國政治經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的贊許。但與此同時,為了進一步提升人民幣的國際化水平,需要我國國際收支兩大賬戶(經(jīng)常賬戶、資本賬戶)逐漸開放,拓寬人民幣在世界范圍內(nèi)的可使用途徑。目前我國已經(jīng)順利開放了經(jīng)常賬戶,非居民可以通過經(jīng)常帳戶下的貿(mào)易結(jié)算來進行人民幣投資,但仍需要資本賬戶的開放來支撐未來人民幣國際化進程下的人民幣結(jié)算交易。而對于資本賬戶的開放,我國遇到了較大的挑戰(zhàn)。目前,我國匯率市場化改革仍存在較大問題。事實上,自2005年匯率制度改革以來,我國的外匯管理體制發(fā)生了翻天覆地的變化。在放棄了單一釘住美元的匯率體制后,我國朝著有管理的浮動匯率制度的方向進行著長期的匯率制度改革,到目前為止談及成功還言之尚早。人民幣對美元升值預期明顯,經(jīng)常賬戶和資本賬戶的“雙順差”持續(xù),人民幣均衡匯率很難形成。同時,當下國內(nèi)金融監(jiān)管的最高機構(gòu)-中央銀行和主流金融機構(gòu)的風險管控能力尚不足以抵抗資本賬戶開放帶來的沖擊,資本賬戶一旦開放,外資銀行的介入加上短期資本的大量流入會導致金融危機的風險加劇,部分中低收益率行業(yè)將受到重創(chuàng)。因此,在人民幣逐步踏上國際化正規(guī)的當下,我國需要借助國際上已有的資本賬戶開放經(jīng)驗,結(jié)合自身國情,加大力度完善開放資本賬戶所需要的前提條件,逐步放開我國政府對資本項目下的交易及貨幣兌換的管控,嚴懲腐敗尋租,利用香港人民幣離岸市場的有利條件,刺激國際貨幣市場上投資者對人民幣的需求、合理利用香港人民幣離岸市場的政治、經(jīng)濟優(yōu)勢,保持金融市場化改革的強勁勢頭,提高我國在世界經(jīng)濟市場中的競爭力。本文在對人民幣國際化與資本項目開放的復雜相關(guān)關(guān)系進行論述后,著力探討了在現(xiàn)有資本賬戶管理狀況下,我國資本賬戶開放面對的挑戰(zhàn),從宏觀經(jīng)濟水平與微觀主體兩方面看待我國資本賬戶開放前提條件的不足,并引入國際上具有代表性的資本賬戶開放路徑作為參照系,從中得到啟發(fā),以期對我國政府金融監(jiān)管及資本賬戶開放提出一定建議。
[Abstract]:China's RMB internationalization is a gradual transition to the RMB internationalization policy stage after several decades of non-internationalization policy stage and non-internationalization policy adjustment stage. From the point of view of RMB going abroad, From a strict ban on overseas circulation to gradual liberalization of restrictions, RMB began to settle border trade in neighboring countries, and then to establish economic cooperation and trade exchanges with many non-peripheral countries in the world. It has made its way from "RMB periphery" to "RMB regionalization" and gradually becoming "RMB internationalization." the RMB has joined the SDR special drawing right basket since October 1st 2016. It marks the first time that the currencies of emerging countries have joined the basket of world currencies, and has become the 5th currencies that have joined the special drawing rights in the world. This process demonstrates the importance that our government attaches to the internationalization of the renminbi. It also shows the International Monetary Fund's praise for the renminbi and the political and economic development of our country. But at the same time, in order to further enhance the internationalization of the renminbi, we need two major balance of payments accounts (the current account). Capital account) gradually opening up, widening the way the RMB can be used around the world. At present, China has successfully opened its current account, and non-residents can invest in RMB through trade settlement under the current account. However, we still need to open the capital account to support the RMB settlement in the process of RMB internationalization in the future. However, the opening of the capital account in China has encountered great challenges. At present, In fact, since the reform of the exchange rate system in 2005, the foreign exchange management system of our country has undergone tremendous changes. After giving up the single exchange rate system pegging to the US dollar, China has been carrying out a long-term reform of the exchange rate regime towards a managed floating exchange rate system. So far, it is still too early to talk about success. The RMB is clearly expected to appreciate against the US dollar, and the "double surplus" between the current account and the capital account continues. It is difficult to form a balanced RMB exchange rate. At the same time, the risk control capacity of the central bank and the mainstream financial institutions, the highest institutions for domestic financial supervision, is not yet strong enough to resist the impact of the opening of the capital account, once the capital account is opened, The involvement of foreign banks and the massive inflow of short-term capital will increase the risk of the financial crisis, and some of the low and medium yield industries will be hard hit. China needs to make use of the international capital account opening experience, combine with its own national conditions, strengthen efforts to improve the necessary preconditions for opening the capital account, and gradually liberalize the government's control over transactions and currency exchange under the capital account. To severely punish corruption for rent-seeking, to take advantage of the favorable conditions of the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong, to stimulate the demand for renminbi in the international currency market, and to make rational use of the political and economic advantages of the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong. Maintain the strong momentum of financial market-oriented reform, improve our country's competitiveness in the world economic market. This paper discusses the complex correlation between RMB internationalization and capital account opening. This paper probes into the challenges facing the opening of China's capital account under the current situation of capital account management, and looks at the deficiencies of the preconditions of opening the capital account from the two aspects of the macroeconomic level and the micro subject. The paper also introduces the representative international capital account opening path as a reference frame and draws inspiration from it in order to put forward some suggestions for the financial supervision and capital account opening of our government.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6

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