本文選題：碎片化政黨制度　切入點：開放名單比例代表制　出處：《四川外國語大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：巴西國內(nèi)周期性的經(jīng)濟危機和混亂的社會秩序貫穿于巴西殖民時期、威權(quán)統(tǒng)治時期以及民主轉(zhuǎn)型時期各階段。近年來巴西政治、經(jīng)濟局勢的急劇變化再次將政治制度與社會治理的關系引入大眾關注的視野。為何擁有相似執(zhí)政綱領,同屬勞工黨的執(zhí)政者盧拉、羅塞夫,會產(chǎn)生截然相反的社會治理績效?站在不同政治立場的卡多佐與盧拉卻創(chuàng)造了經(jīng)濟奇跡?又是何原因?qū)е旅裰髦葡碌陌臀饕廊慌腔苍诮?jīng)濟危機與混亂社會的邊緣?本文將通過離心型民主政體理論模型,運用多元回歸分析的方法來解釋上述問題。首先,基于政治制度理論構(gòu)建離心型民主政體理論模型,并簡要介紹該理論模型的基本因素:碎片化政黨、比例代表制下的總統(tǒng)制、超大規(guī)模執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟和社會治理。該理論模型主要是從政黨—行政和行政—立法兩個維度來解釋巴西離心型的政治制度是如何塑造政治參與者行為,進而導致不同的社會治理結(jié)果。其次,基于理論模型提出回歸分析的命題假設,并對各變量進行操作化。本文以1994-2015年的相關數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,運用多元回歸的方法分析碎片化政黨與超大規(guī)模執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟、超大規(guī)模執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟與經(jīng)濟形勢、經(jīng)濟形勢與社會暴力這三個不同階段內(nèi)基本因素的相關性。通過分析發(fā)現(xiàn)議會有效政黨分化程度越高,執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟規(guī)模就越大;而執(zhí)政規(guī)模又加劇了議會有效政黨數(shù)對經(jīng)濟形勢的影響,二者取值越大,經(jīng)濟形勢越惡劣;而經(jīng)濟形勢的惡化使失業(yè)率激增,進而引發(fā)大規(guī)模的罷工活動,導致社會失序。最后,采用多案例分析離心型民主政體下卡多佐、盧拉及羅塞夫三屆政府的執(zhí)政策略及社會治理績效。發(fā)現(xiàn)執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟策略影響著巴西經(jīng)濟危機和社會失序的循環(huán)往復。具體而言:巴西政治制度從政黨—行政和立法—行政兩個維度共同塑造了超大執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟,成為總統(tǒng)推行社會治理政策的重要阻力。但卡多佐和盧拉通過內(nèi)閣職位分配、政治交易及談判的方式獲得了議會多數(shù)的支持,使社會改革政策維持在共識、妥協(xié)類別。即羅塞夫執(zhí)政時期,其減裁內(nèi)閣規(guī)模、增稅、透支財政支出等舉措遭到了議會精英階層的烈反對,進而導致社會改革政策走向沖突類別,所以經(jīng)濟形勢與社會秩序持續(xù)弱化。
[Abstract]:The cyclical economic crisis and chaotic social order in Brazil run through the colonial period, the authoritarian period and the period of democratic transition. The sharp changes in the economic situation have once again brought the relationship between the political system and social governance to the attention of the public. Why does Lula Rousseff, the leader of the Labor Party, have a similar ruling program? Cardoso and Lula, on different political grounds, have created economic miracles? And why is it that Brazil, under democracy, is still on the brink of economic crisis and chaos? In this paper, the theoretical model of centrifugal democracy is used to explain the above problems by means of multiple regression analysis. Firstly, the theoretical model of centrifugal democracy is constructed based on the theory of political system. And briefly introduces the basic factors of the theoretical model: fragmentation of political parties, proportional representation under the presidential system, The theoretical model mainly explains how the centrifugal political system in Brazil shapes the behavior of political participants from the two dimensions of party-administrative and executive-legislative. Then it leads to different results of social governance. Secondly, the proposition hypothesis of regression analysis is put forward based on the theoretical model, and the variables are operated. This paper takes the relevant data from 1994-2015 as the sample. Using the method of multiple regression to analyze the fragmented political party and the super-large ruling alliance, the super-large-scale ruling alliance and the economic situation. The correlation between the economic situation and the basic factors in the three different stages of social violence. It is found through the analysis that the higher the degree of differentiation of the effective political parties in parliament, the larger the scale of the ruling coalition; However, the ruling scale has aggravated the influence of the number of effective political parties in Parliament on the economic situation. The greater the value of the two parties, the worse the economic situation; and the worsening economic situation has led to a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, which has led to large-scale strikes. Leading to social disorder. Finally, a multi-case study of Cardoso in a centrifugal democracy, The governance strategy and social governance performance of the three governments of Lula and Rousseff. It is found that the strategy of ruling coalition affects the cycle of economic crisis and social disorder in Brazil. The two dimensions of law and administration have shaped the super ruling coalition together. It has been a major resistance to the president's policies of social governance. But Cardoso and Lula have won the support of a parliamentary majority through cabinet assignments, political transactions and negotiations, keeping social reform policies in agreement. Compromise categories. In Rousseff's administration, measures such as cutting the size of the cabinet, raising taxes, and overdrawing fiscal spending were strongly opposed by the parliamentary elite, which led to social reform policies moving into conflict categories. So the economic situation and social order continue to weaken.
【學位授予單位】：四川外國語大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：D777.7

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