本文關(guān)鍵詞： 四川省地方公債 制度設(shè)計(jì) 發(fā)債規(guī)模 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范　出處：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：1994年分稅制改革使得地方政府事權(quán)和財(cái)權(quán)不對(duì)稱。而隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革的深入,地方政府越來越多的承擔(dān)起經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)的重任,巨大的財(cái)政壓力使地方政府有迫切舉債融資的需要。但在我國(guó)法律的明令禁止下,地方政府不得不另辟蹊徑,變相舉債,如以政府的名義成立各種投資公司或基金公司。盡管這些債務(wù)資金在促進(jìn)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,改善居民福利上發(fā)揮了重要作用,但是其自身具有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也是不容忽視的。這些債務(wù)性質(zhì)不清、規(guī)模巨大、管理不規(guī)范,被稱為“威脅中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)安全和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定的頭號(hào)殺手”,對(duì)其應(yīng)如何化解和管理的問題已經(jīng)搬上了決策者的議事日程。2013年,地方政府債務(wù)已達(dá)到20.6萬億,如此龐大的數(shù)據(jù)不得不引發(fā)人們的深思。2011年,我國(guó)進(jìn)行了地方政府發(fā)債的試點(diǎn),批準(zhǔn)廣州、上海、浙江、深圳進(jìn)行自主發(fā)債的試點(diǎn)工作。2013年,地方政府自行發(fā)債試點(diǎn)范圍進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大,由四個(gè)省市增至六個(gè)省市,賦予了江蘇省和山東省自行發(fā)債權(quán),這一系列舉動(dòng)意味著地方債券市場(chǎng)已逐步放開。所以,發(fā)行地方政府債券可以成為新的融資方式,是緩解地方財(cái)政壓力,治理地方政府債務(wù)的一種有效途徑。由于目前四川省并沒有發(fā)行地方政府債務(wù),所以本文研究的問題主要是四川省地方公債發(fā)行的必要性、可行性,以及發(fā)行制度的設(shè)計(jì),包括四川省公債制度的基本框架、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范機(jī)制和配套措施的完善。 論文選題之初是對(duì)我國(guó)地方政府債務(wù)的分析和思考。從目前的趨勢(shì)來看,地方債券市場(chǎng)已逐步放開,地方政府能否發(fā)債以及如何發(fā)債將成為新的研究熱點(diǎn)。本文作者認(rèn)為：賦予地方政府發(fā)債權(quán),可以將隱性的債務(wù)顯性化、陽光化,無序的融資行為有序化。當(dāng)前我國(guó)地方公債發(fā)行仍在過渡階段,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看,在研究地方公債發(fā)行的必要性和可行性的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合國(guó)外經(jīng)驗(yàn)和試點(diǎn)工作經(jīng)驗(yàn),科學(xué)地設(shè)計(jì)發(fā)債程序,并通過有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制,全面的監(jiān)管體系,建立我國(guó)地方公債發(fā)行制度具有重大的意義。圍繞這一目的,本文的研究框架如下： 第一部分緒論,主要介紹文章的研究背景、方法、內(nèi)在邏輯結(jié)構(gòu)、國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)綜述。研究背景從我國(guó)當(dāng)前地方政府債務(wù)龐大的事實(shí)出發(fā),且在現(xiàn)有的財(cái)稅體制和法律制度下,地方政府出現(xiàn)不規(guī)范融資的行為,引出賦予地方政府發(fā)債權(quán)的重要性。同時(shí)闡述了從2005年到2013年地方公債循序漸進(jìn)的發(fā)展過程。文獻(xiàn)綜述部分包含了我國(guó)學(xué)者對(duì)地方公債發(fā)行的必要性、可行性及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范、制度建設(shè)的研究和國(guó)外學(xué)者對(duì)地方政府是否應(yīng)該發(fā)展及怎樣適度舉債的研究。 第二部分為地方公債的理論分析部分,包括地方公債的內(nèi)涵和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析。首先,從地方公債的概念、種類和特點(diǎn)描述了地方公債的內(nèi)涵。其次,從公共產(chǎn)品理論、財(cái)政分權(quán)理論、政府職能劃分理論進(jìn)行了地方公債的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析。此部分的研究為地方公債發(fā)行奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。 第三部分回顧了地方公債發(fā)行的歷史,詳細(xì)介紹了從建國(guó)初期我國(guó)第一次地方公債發(fā)行階段、禁止發(fā)行階段、由財(cái)政部代理發(fā)行階段到目前地方公債自行發(fā)債試點(diǎn)階段。通過歷史分析為地方公債的長(zhǎng)期運(yùn)作提供經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)。同時(shí),由于本文的核心是研究四川省地方公債發(fā)行,所以,詳細(xì)闡述了四川省地方公債的發(fā)行歷史,結(jié)合四川省當(dāng)時(shí)的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)條件,將地方公債的歷史劃分為軍閥割據(jù)下的防區(qū)制時(shí)期和川政統(tǒng)一時(shí)期。最后根據(jù)歷史總結(jié)了這一階段地方公債的特點(diǎn),并表明建設(shè)宏觀環(huán)境、完善發(fā)行制度、控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要性。 第四部分以美國(guó)市政債券和日本地方公債為例分析了國(guó)外地方公債的運(yùn)行情況。從美國(guó)市政債券的發(fā)行主體、條件和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范三個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了研究。特別是美國(guó)市政債券的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范機(jī)制,包括發(fā)行制度、監(jiān)管制度、信用評(píng)級(jí)制度、財(cái)稅制度和保險(xiǎn)制度五個(gè)方面,一系列完善成熟的機(jī)制值得我國(guó)學(xué)習(xí)。另外,選取日本地方公債為研究對(duì)象在于日本中央集權(quán)的政治體制與我國(guó)類似,在發(fā)行管理上可以借鑒日本模式。當(dāng)然,我國(guó)的國(guó)情不同于美國(guó)和日本,需要結(jié)合實(shí)際情況將美、日兩國(guó)的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)融入我國(guó)地方公債發(fā)行中,切不可生搬硬套。 第五部分為四川省地方公債發(fā)行的必要性和可行性分析。首先,明確了當(dāng)前四川省政府面臨著財(cái)政壓力和債務(wù)困境,存在著不規(guī)范融資的行為。同時(shí),又從中央財(cái)政壓力巨大、金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展需要和推動(dòng)四川省城市化進(jìn)程三個(gè)角度說明了允許四川省自行發(fā)債的必要性。然后,又進(jìn)一步分析了發(fā)債的可行性。四川省巨大的居民儲(chǔ)蓄存款量為地方公債的發(fā)行提供了良好的外部基礎(chǔ),而分稅制改革又提供了體制可行性。同時(shí),根據(jù)1993-2013年四川省GDP和財(cái)政收入數(shù)據(jù)說明了四川省政府具備一定的承債能力。另外,國(guó)債的發(fā)行經(jīng)驗(yàn)和國(guó)外地方公債運(yùn)行經(jīng)驗(yàn)可供四川省借鑒。 第六部分為四川省地方公債發(fā)行問題研究。在具備了發(fā)債的必要性和可行性后,進(jìn)一步深入研究發(fā)債的制度設(shè)計(jì)。首先分析了2009年后四川省地方公債發(fā)行情況,主要是研究由財(cái)政部代理發(fā)行債券的規(guī)模、期限、利率和用途,初步了解四川省公債的運(yùn)行情況。然后根據(jù)前幾部分的內(nèi)容,進(jìn)行四川省地方公債發(fā)行的制度設(shè)計(jì)。邏輯安排是基本框架,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范機(jī)制的設(shè)計(jì),和相關(guān)配套措施的完善�；究蚣苤饕òl(fā)債主體、發(fā)行期限、發(fā)行利率、債券種類和稅收政策。針對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范,由于地方公債運(yùn)作風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大,所以從發(fā)債前、中、后為線條設(shè)計(jì)了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范機(jī)制。包括通過KMV模型確定了四川省地方公債的發(fā)行規(guī)模、審批制度、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警機(jī)制、信用評(píng)級(jí)制度、信息披露機(jī)制和償債準(zhǔn)備金制度。由于現(xiàn)階段四川省仍通過財(cái)政部代理發(fā)行,所以重點(diǎn)評(píng)估了發(fā)債規(guī)模,建立了動(dòng)態(tài)的違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)模型。在配套措施完善上,主要從法律法規(guī)建設(shè)、政府監(jiān)督體系、預(yù)算管理和中介機(jī)構(gòu)約束四個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了論述。
[Abstract]:The 1994 tax reform makes the local government powers and financial authority and asymmetry. With the deepening of economic system reform, the responsibility of local government more and more to assume the economic construction of the huge financial pressure to local government debt financing needs urgent. But in our country the law banned, the local government had to find a way of borrowing in disguise on behalf of the government, such as the establishment of a variety of investment companies or fund companies. Although these debt funds in promoting regional economic development, improve the welfare of the residents has played an important role, but its risk can not be ignored. The nature of the debt is not clear, the huge scale, management is not standardized, known as the "threat Chinese economic security and social stability, it should be the first killer" on how to resolve the management problems already onto the decision maker's schedule for.2013 years, local government debt Has reached 20 trillion and 600 billion, such a huge data have caused people to think.2011 years, our country has carried on the local government bonds pilot, approved by the Guangzhou Shanghai, Zhejiang, Shenzhen, independent bonds pilot work.2013 years, local governments to further expand the scope of pilot bonds, from four provinces to six provinces and cities, to Jiangsu province and Shandong province to issue bonds on their own right, this series of moves mean that the local bond market has been gradually liberalized. Therefore, local government bonds can become a new way of financing, is to ease the pressure on local finance, an effective way to control the local government debt. Due to the current Sichuan province did not issue local government debt, so this paper is mainly the necessity and feasibility of local government bonds issued by the province of Sichuan, and the design of the distribution system, the basic framework of Sichuan Province, including bond system, risk prevention The improvement of the model and supporting measures.
The topic of this thesis is the beginning of the analysis and reflection of China's local government debt. From the current trend, the local bond market has been gradually liberalized, local governments can issue bonds and bonds will become a new research hotspot. The author thinks that: giving local governments the right to issuing bonds, the debt explicit, implicit in the sunshine and the financing behavior of disorderly orderly. The issue of local government bonds in China is still in the transition period, from a long-term perspective, based on the necessity and feasibility of the research on the issue of local government bonds, according to foreign experience and work experience of the pilot program, the design issue scientifically, and through effective risk control, comprehensive supervision system, set up the local government bonds issued in our country system is of great significance. For this purpose, the framework is as follows:
The first part is the introduction, mainly introduces the research background, method, logical structure, literature review at home and abroad. The research background from the current local government debt and the fact that in the current tax system and legal system, the local government does not regulate the behavior of financing, leads to the importance to give local governments the right to issuing bonds at the same time. This paper expounds the development process from 2005 to 2013, local government bonds progressively. The literature review part includes the necessity of Chinese scholars on the issue of local government bonds, feasibility and risk prevention research, system construction and foreign scholars to study on whether the local government should develop and how to moderate debt.
The second part is the local government bond in the part of theoretical analysis, including the connotation and economic analysis of local government bonds. First of all, from the concept of local government bonds, describes the types and characteristics of connotation of local government bonds. Secondly, from the theory of public goods, the theory of fiscal decentralization, division of government function theory of economics analysis of local government bonds. This part of research provides a theoretical basis for local government bonds.
The third part reviews the history of local government bonds, introduced in the early years of China's first local government bond issuance stage, prohibit the distribution stage, issued by the Ministry of finance to the current pilot phase of local government bonds in their own bonds. Providing the experience of long-term operation through historical analysis for local government bonds. At the same time, because this is the core of study on local government bonds issued in Sichuan Province, so the details of local government bonds issued in Sichuan province history, Sichuan province with the political, economic and social conditions, the local bond's history into the warlord period and the defense area of Sichuan political unification period. According to the history and summarizes the characteristics of local government bonds in this stage, and show that the construction of macro environment, improve the distribution system, the importance of risk control.
The fourth part of the United States municipal bonds and local government bonds in Japan as an example to analyze the operation of foreign bonds from the United States. The local municipal bond issuers, conditions and risk prevention three aspects were studied. Especially the municipal bond risk prevention mechanism, including distribution system, supervision system, credit rating system, five aspects taxation system and insurance system, a series of perfect and mature mechanism is worth our study. In addition, selection of local government bonds in Japan as the research object in the Japanese centralized political system similar to China, on the issue of management can learn from the Japanese model. Of course, the situation of our country is different from the United States and Japan, combined with the actual situation the beautiful, successful experience of Japan into the local government bonds issued in our country, must not be applied mechanically.
Necessity and feasibility analysis of the fifth part is the local government bonds issued by the province of Sichuan. Firstly, the current Sichuan province government is facing financial pressure and debt problems, there is no standard financing behavior. At the same time, from the central government is enormous pressure to the three aspects and promote Sichuan province city urbanization explains the necessity to allow Sichuan province to issue bonds on their own financial market development. Then, further analysis of the issue. The feasibility of the external good foundation of the huge resident savings amount in Sichuan province to issue local government bonds, and the reform of the tax system and provide the system feasibility. At the same time, according to the 1993-2013 GDP in Sichuan province and revenue data show Sichuan the provincial government has certain debt bearing capacity. In addition, the issuance of government bonds and local government bonds abroad experience operation experience for the Sichuan province for reference.
The sixth part is the Sichuan Province, local government bonds issue research. The necessity and feasibility of issuing bonds, further research on the system design bonds. Firstly analyzes the issue of local government bonds in 2009 in Sichuan Province, is mainly studied by the Ministry of finance agency issuing bonds, term, interest rates and purposes, a preliminary understanding of operation Sichuan provincial government bonds. Then according to the previous parts, design of the system of local government bonds issued by the province of Sichuan. The logical arrangement is the basic framework, the design of risk prevention mechanism, and improve the relevant supporting measures. The basic framework mainly includes the main issue bonds issued for a period, the issue of interest rates, bond type and tax policy for risk prevention. Because of the advantages, operation risk, so from the bonds before, after line design of a risk prevention mechanism. Including Sichuan province were determined by KMV model The bond issue size, approval system, risk warning mechanism, credit rating system, information disclosure system and the debt service reserve system. Due to the issue of the present stage Sichuan province still by the Ministry of finance, so the evaluation focused on the issue size, a default risk estimation model. The dynamic perfect supporting measures, mainly from the construction of laws and regulations. The government supervision system, four aspects of budget management and intermediary institutions constraints are discussed.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5;F832.51

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