發(fā)布時間：2018-01-19 00:04

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 低碳能源 綜合評價 情景分析 IPAC-Beijing模型　出處：《北京工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：由人為溫室氣體排放所引起的全球氣候變化問題日益引起國際社會的廣泛關(guān)注，而能源消耗則是其中最關(guān)鍵的因素，因此如何盡快開發(fā)出高效能源新技術(shù)并加快應(yīng)用，降低能源領(lǐng)域的溫室氣體排放已成了世界各國的重要政策著力點，許多國家和地區(qū)已經(jīng)為此設(shè)定了中長期的發(fā)展和減排目標(biāo)，展開低碳能源行動。北京市作為擁有兩千多萬人口的特大型城市，是我國的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化中心，社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度高于全國平均水平，其發(fā)展路徑和模式對其他地區(qū)乃至全國都有相當(dāng)?shù)挠绊懥�，在目前快速發(fā)展的時期，北京市盡管已經(jīng)較好的完成了國家設(shè)定的二氧化碳和節(jié)能指標(biāo)，但較低水平的能源利用技術(shù)和對化石能源的高度依賴不僅導(dǎo)致溫室氣體排放量絕對值的持續(xù)增加，，而且使大氣環(huán)境也受到了嚴(yán)重影響，PM2.5等有害顆粒物排放也在持續(xù)增加，嚴(yán)重影響了首都城市功能和居民身體健康,因此迫切需要找出一條城市低碳能源的發(fā)展路徑實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 具體研究方法上，在對北京經(jīng)濟(jì)能源環(huán)境現(xiàn)狀和國際主流能源系統(tǒng)分析模型詳細(xì)研究的基礎(chǔ)上，針對北京市在現(xiàn)階段要實現(xiàn)應(yīng)對氣候變化、解決大氣污染控制和能源安全的多重目標(biāo)，充分考慮能源環(huán)境新技術(shù)的應(yīng)用和創(chuàng)新對于發(fā)展質(zhì)量的提升的作用，建立IPAC-Beijing模型能源技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)庫，利用C++BULIDER語言、GAMS語言和IPAC模型框架開發(fā)了IPAC-Beijing模型，提出了理性預(yù)期的情景分析法，并以2005年為基年利用模型計算出了三種情景下的北京市優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu)改善大氣環(huán)境質(zhì)量的發(fā)展路徑，給出了2030年的低碳能源發(fā)展目標(biāo)和政策建議，同時為國內(nèi)其他省市在制定相關(guān)政策時提供了定量理論分析支撐。 研究最后提出，在強力政策驅(qū)動情景下，北京市在2030年的能源消費總量可以控制在1.1億噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)煤，其中2025年可達(dá)到1.4億噸左右的峰值，溫室氣體排放達(dá)到230萬噸，下降到2020年的水平，大氣污染水平也將大幅度降低。主要的政策建議是政府應(yīng)該全面構(gòu)建基于最先進(jìn)技術(shù)的能源體系，徹底取消終端領(lǐng)域的燃煤，促進(jìn)天然氣高效燃燒技術(shù)和新能源的應(yīng)用，爭取使北京市的用能效率在2020年到2030年期間達(dá)到國際領(lǐng)先水平，新能源和可再生能源在能源消費中的比例達(dá)到10%，其中城市太陽能光熱和工商業(yè)分布式光伏屋頂電站應(yīng)大力發(fā)展，淺層地溫能和污水源熱泵技術(shù)應(yīng)該是發(fā)展的重點，新能源汽車和生物燃油研發(fā)技術(shù)也應(yīng)是政府政策的著力點。此外，北京市應(yīng)進(jìn)一步明確首都城市功能定位，明確產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展負(fù)面清單，確立企業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新主體地位，積極發(fā)展以高新技術(shù)為主的低碳產(chǎn)業(yè)，在全社會積極營造綠色發(fā)展可持續(xù)發(fā)展的良好社會氛圍。
[Abstract]:The issue of global climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has increasingly attracted the attention of the international community, among which energy consumption is the most critical factor. Therefore, how to develop new efficient energy technology and accelerate its application as soon as possible, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the field of energy has become an important policy focus in the world. Many countries and regions have set medium- and long-term development and emission reduction targets, and launched low-carbon energy initiatives. As a super large city with more than 20 million people, Beijing is the political, economic and cultural center of our country. The level of social and economic development is higher than the national average, and its development path and model have considerable influence on other regions and even the whole country, in the current period of rapid development. Beijing has met its national targets for carbon dioxide and energy conservation. However, low levels of energy use technologies and high dependence on fossil energy not only led to a sustained increase in the absolute value of greenhouse gas emissions, but also seriously affected the atmospheric environment. The emission of PM2.5 and other harmful particulates is also increasing, which seriously affects the function of the capital city and the health of the residents. Therefore, it is urgent to find a way to realize the sustainable development of low-carbon energy in the city. On the basis of the detailed research on the current situation of economic energy and environment in Beijing and the analysis model of international mainstream energy system, this paper aims at the realization of coping with climate change in Beijing at the present stage. To solve the multiple objectives of air pollution control and energy security, fully consider the application and innovation of new energy environment technology to improve the quality of development. The energy technology and economy database of IPAC-Beijing model is established, and C BULIDER language is used. The IPAC-Beijing model is developed by GAMS language and IPAC model framework, and the scenario analysis method of rational expectation is put forward. Based on the model of 2005, the development path of optimizing energy structure in three scenarios to improve atmospheric environmental quality in Beijing is calculated, and the development goals and policy recommendations of low-carbon energy in 2030 are given. At the same time for other provinces and cities in the formulation of relevant policies to provide quantitative theoretical analysis support. Finally, under the strong policy driving scenario, the total energy consumption of Beijing in 2030 can be controlled at 110 million tons of standard coal, among which the peak value of 140 million tons can be reached in 2025. Greenhouse gas emissions reached 2.3 million tons, falling to 2020 levels, and air pollution levels will be significantly reduced. The main policy recommendation is that the government should build a comprehensive energy system based on the most advanced technologies. The coal burning in the terminal area will be completely eliminated, and the application of high efficiency natural gas combustion technology and new energy will be promoted, and the energy use efficiency of Beijing will reach the international leading level between 2020 and 2030. The proportion of new energy and renewable energy in energy consumption reaches 10, among which the urban solar energy and solar energy and industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic rooftop power station should be vigorously developed. Shallow geothermal energy and sewage source heat pump technology should be the focus of development, new energy vehicles and bio-fuel research and development technology should also be the focus of government policy. In addition, Beijing should further clarify the location of the capital city function. We should make clear the negative list of industrial development, establish the main position of technological innovation of enterprises, actively develop low-carbon industries with high and new technology, and create a good social atmosphere for the sustainable development of green development in the whole society.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.2;X24

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