【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的發(fā)展，民間借貸規(guī)模、用途、交易主體、交易方式和運(yùn)行環(huán)境均發(fā)生了較大的變化，區(qū)域性民間借貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成為我國(guó)民間金融發(fā)展過(guò)程中一個(gè)日益凸顯的問(wèn)題，例如2011年溫州“跑路”事件。因此，，探討民間借貸危機(jī)的成因，提出一個(gè)切實(shí)可行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制模式，對(duì)民間金融健康發(fā)展具有重要意義。 本文運(yùn)用結(jié)構(gòu)洞理論、博弈理論及效用理論從微觀和宏觀兩個(gè)層面研究民間借貸債務(wù)危機(jī)生成機(jī)理。以民間借貸債務(wù)危機(jī)生成、擴(kuò)散和傳染、防范為明線，闡述結(jié)構(gòu)洞逐利機(jī)制對(duì)民間借貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響；以民間借貸社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中參與者之間的博弈為暗線，分析民間借貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)生的影響因素。在此基礎(chǔ)上，提出民間借貸債務(wù)危機(jī)防范的主要措施。本文主要結(jié)論是： 1、民間借貸主體和資金來(lái)源多元化，市場(chǎng)主體相互依存度和外部關(guān)聯(lián)度逐步提高，導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)同質(zhì)化，以及城鄉(xiāng)人口流動(dòng)加快導(dǎo)致信息不對(duì)稱加劇和產(chǎn)業(yè)資本利潤(rùn)率下降不足以支撐金融資本的利潤(rùn)分割，是民間借貸債務(wù)危機(jī)形成的微觀原因。不連續(xù)的貨幣政策對(duì)民間借貸市場(chǎng)和中小企業(yè)的沖擊是民間借貸債務(wù)危機(jī)形成的宏觀原因。 2、小范圍熟人關(guān)系借貸效率極高，而當(dāng)民間借貸跨越特定區(qū)域則風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極大。其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大小受以下因素影響：民間借貸規(guī)模和利率、借款者經(jīng)營(yíng)項(xiàng)目的收益率、借款違約不被第三方知道的概率、折現(xiàn)因子、監(jiān)督成本和聲譽(yù)價(jià)值。 3、民間借貸債務(wù)危機(jī)微觀防范措施主要有：完善民間借貸債務(wù)合約；培養(yǎng)社會(huì)信用觀念、加大社會(huì)聲譽(yù)懲罰力度；推進(jìn)企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)、提高企業(yè)項(xiàng)目收益率。民間借貸債務(wù)危機(jī)宏觀防范措施主要有：暢通各種渠道、提高中小企業(yè)融資能力；推行逆周期宏觀審慎監(jiān)管框架。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society, the scale, use, transaction subject, transaction mode and operating environment of folk loan have all changed greatly. The risk of regional folk loan has become an increasingly prominent problem in the development of folk finance in our country. For example, Wenzhou 2011 "run Road" incident. Therefore, it is of great significance for the healthy development of private finance to probe into the causes of the private lending crisis and put forward a feasible risk control model. In this paper, we use the theory of structural hole, game theory and utility theory to study the formation mechanism of private loan debt crisis from the micro and macro levels. Taking the emergence, diffusion, contagion and prevention of private borrowing debt crisis as the clear line, this paper expounds the influence of the structural hole and profit banishing mechanism on the private lending risk, and takes the game among the participants in the private lending social network as the dark line. Analyze the influencing factors of private lending risk. On this basis, put forward the main measures to prevent private borrowing debt crisis. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. The diversification of private lending and capital sources, the gradual improvement of mutual dependence and external correlation of market subjects lead to the homogeneity of market structure. And the acceleration of urban and rural population flow leads to the aggravation of information asymmetry and the decline of profit margin of industrial capital, which is not enough to support the profit division of financial capital, which is the micro reason for the formation of private borrowing debt crisis. The impact of discontinuous monetary policy on the private lending market and small and medium-sized enterprises is the macro reason for the formation of the private lending debt crisis. The risk is affected by the following factors: the scale and interest rate of private lending, the yield of the project operated by the borrower, the probability that the loan default is unknown to the third party, the discount factor, Third, the microcosmic measures to prevent the non-government loan debt crisis mainly include: perfecting the private loan debt contract; cultivating the social credit concept, increasing the social reputation punishment; promoting the enterprise transformation and upgrading, Increase the rate of return on enterprise projects. The macroscopical preventive measures of private loan debt crisis include: unblocking all kinds of channels to improve the financing ability of small and medium-sized enterprises; carrying out counter-cyclical macro-prudential regulatory framework.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.4

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本文編號(hào)：2288089