【摘要】：隨著房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的不斷發(fā)展以及住房制度改革的不斷深化，蘭州市住宅的商品化程度大幅提高，住房消費(fèi)也在城市居民生活消費(fèi)中占據(jù)了十分重要的位置，房?jī)r(jià)問(wèn)題曰益成為關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)，研究蘭州市商品住宅價(jià)格時(shí)空變化，具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文以蘭州市中心四區(qū)1997年至2011年商品住宅價(jià)格樣本數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，應(yīng)用Excel的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析功能描繪商品住宅價(jià)格散點(diǎn)圖和柱形圖，分析其總體變化趨勢(shì)以及各個(gè)區(qū)商品住宅均價(jià)的時(shí)間變化特點(diǎn)，揭示時(shí)間變化規(guī)律；應(yīng)用地理信息系統(tǒng)軟件建立蘭州市商品住宅價(jià)格空間數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，對(duì)商品住宅樓盤(pán)信息進(jìn)行數(shù)字化處理并制作專題地圖，通過(guò)住宅價(jià)格空間分布圖，分析商品住宅價(jià)格空間變化特點(diǎn)，揭示空間變化規(guī)律；通過(guò)對(duì)蘭州市房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響因素的定性分析，確定了房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響因素，并分析了各因素如何對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)變動(dòng)起作用。通過(guò)分析得出了以下結(jié)論： （1)時(shí)間變化方面，1997年到2011年，蘭州市中心四區(qū)商品住宅價(jià)格總體上不斷上升，由1997年的2496元/m~2上漲到2011年的6104元/m~2，年平均增幅為14.19%。商品住宅價(jià)格略低于商品房?jī)r(jià)格，兩者走勢(shì)大體相同；各區(qū)商品住宅價(jià)格漲幅差異明顯，城關(guān)區(qū)、七里河區(qū)、安寧區(qū)、西固區(qū)的漲幅分別為18.20%、16.26%、17.45%、11.03%。（2)空間變化方面，房?jī)r(jià)呈現(xiàn)帶狀圈層式分布規(guī)律，城關(guān)區(qū)、七里河區(qū)西站、 安寧區(qū)沿河一帶為中心向周邊遞減，中心區(qū)域9000元/m~2至15000元/m~2的價(jià)格區(qū)間，，遞減至周邊區(qū)域3000元/m~2到8000元/m~2的價(jià)格區(qū)間。安寧區(qū)沿南北濱河路一帶房?jī)r(jià)明顯高于該區(qū)其他區(qū)域。CBD對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的影響明顯，蘭州的城市中心商務(wù)區(qū)城關(guān)區(qū)中心房?jī)r(jià)最高。交通干線對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)影響明顯，交通發(fā)達(dá)程度直接決定了該區(qū)域的房?jī)r(jià)高低。城關(guān)區(qū)的九州開(kāi)發(fā)區(qū)、東崗鎮(zhèn)-紅山根一帶、西固區(qū)的大部分地區(qū)為房?jī)r(jià)低值區(qū)。（3)從影響因素來(lái)看，影響商品住宅價(jià)格的最主要因素為供給因素，需求因 素，金融因素和區(qū)位因素，作為供給因素的房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資額、竣工房屋面積、竣工房屋價(jià)值等指標(biāo)大幅增加，但由于供給結(jié)構(gòu)不合理，有效供給不足，導(dǎo)致價(jià)格不斷上升；作為需求因素的商品房銷售面積、城市人均居住使用面積，居民收入等也持續(xù)上升，需求增加激化供需矛盾導(dǎo)致價(jià)格上漲；金融因素包括企業(yè)和個(gè)人從金融機(jī)構(gòu)可獲得的資金總和，這一因素同時(shí)作用于供給和需求，在房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)和消費(fèi)環(huán)節(jié)商業(yè)貸款比例過(guò)大導(dǎo)致金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加大；區(qū)位因素對(duì)蘭州市房?jī)r(jià)的影響比較大，主要影響因素為交通，距市中心的距離，環(huán)境等。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of the real estate market and the deepening of housing system reform, the degree of housing commercialization in Lanzhou City has been greatly improved, and housing consumption has also occupied a very important position in urban residents' daily consumption. The problem of house price has become the focus of attention. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the temporal and spatial changes of commodity housing prices in Lanzhou. Based on the sample data of commodity housing prices from 1997 to 2011 in the central four districts of Lanzhou City, this paper applies the statistical analysis function of Excel to depict the scattered and columnar charts of commodity housing prices. This paper analyzes the general change trend and the time change characteristics of the average price of commercial housing in various districts, reveals the law of time change, and establishes the spatial database of the commodity house price in Lanzhou City by using GIS software. The information of commercial residential buildings is digitally processed and thematic maps are made. Through the spatial distribution map of housing prices, the characteristics of spatial changes of commodity housing prices are analyzed, and the laws of spatial changes are revealed. Based on the qualitative analysis of the influencing factors of real estate prices in Lanzhou, this paper determines the influencing factors of real estate prices, and analyzes how each factor plays an important role in the change of real estate prices. The conclusions are as follows: (1) from 1997 to 2011, the price of commercial housing in the four districts of Lanzhou city center has been rising, from 2496 yuan / m ~ (2) in 1997 to 6104 yuan / m ~ (2) in 2011, with an average annual increase of 14.19%. Commodity housing prices are slightly lower than commercial housing prices, and the two trends are roughly the same; there is a marked difference in the increase in commodity housing prices in various districts. The increase in Chengguan District, Qilihe District, Anning District and Xigu District is 18.20 and 16.26 and 17.45 respectively. (2) in terms of spatial changes, Housing prices show a zonal distribution pattern. Chengguan District, Qilihe District West Station, Anning District along the River area are the center of the decline toward the periphery, the central area of the price range of 9000 yuan / mt2 to 15000 yuan / mm2, is a price range of 9000 yuan / m ~ (2) to 15000 yuan / m ~ (2). A range of $3000 / m-2 to $8000 / mm2 decreasing to the surrounding area. The housing price along the north and south riverside road in Anning district is obviously higher than that in other areas. CBD has obvious influence on the house price, and the central housing price in the city central business district of Lanzhou is the highest. The traffic trunk has obvious influence on the housing price, and the degree of traffic development directly determines the housing price in this area. Jiuzhou Development Zone in Chengguan District, Donggang Township-Hongshanggen area, and most areas in Xigu District are low-value housing prices. (3) from the perspective of influencing factors, the most important factors affecting commodity housing prices are supply factors, and demand is due to factors. Financial factors and location factors, as a supply factor of real estate development investment, completed housing area, completed housing value and other indicators increased significantly, but due to unreasonable supply structure, insufficient effective supply, resulting in rising prices; As a demand factor of commercial housing sales area, urban per capita living area, residents' income and so on continue to rise, the increase of demand sharpens the contradiction between supply and demand, leading to price rise; Financial factors include the sum of funds that enterprises and individuals can obtain from financial institutions. This factor acts on both supply and demand. The excessive proportion of commercial loans in real estate development and consumption leads to increased financial risks. Location factors have great influence on house price in Lanzhou. The main influencing factors are traffic, distance from city center, environment and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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