發(fā)布時間：2018-07-10 17:58

  本文選題：資產(chǎn)價格波動 + 銀行信貸��； 參考：《江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來，我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生了翻天覆地的變化。這種變化包括兩個方面，一方面是產(chǎn)業(yè)與產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的變化，另一方面是某個產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部組成結(jié)構(gòu)的變化。第一個方面主要是指制造業(yè)（也稱為第二產(chǎn)業(yè)）與第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)在整個產(chǎn)業(yè)體系中所占比重的變化；第二個方面主要是指九大子制造業(yè)的產(chǎn)出比例關(guān)系的變化，主要表現(xiàn)是重化工和初級產(chǎn)品子行業(yè)的增長相對較快，其他行業(yè)的發(fā)展緩慢甚至出現(xiàn)了萎縮。這種變化有其歷史背景和現(xiàn)實意義，，它不僅僅是在我國經(jīng)濟(jì)處于快速發(fā)展階段出現(xiàn)的，更是我國加入WTO，面對經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化，各種資源要素在有限條件下所發(fā)生的變化。針對我國未來經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，目前這種產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化是利是弊尚難預(yù)測，但深入研究其變化的原因并以此來預(yù)測未來經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，是具有重大意義的。 在以往的文獻(xiàn)中，大多數(shù)學(xué)者是從地區(qū)的角度來研究產(chǎn)業(yè)“空心化”問題，很少有從具體的子制造業(yè)角度來展開研究。深入研究制造業(yè)發(fā)展與資產(chǎn)價格和銀行信貸之間的關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)理，既是具體實施“十二五”規(guī)劃的現(xiàn)實需要，也是促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型與升級，更是保證我國經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。 本文采用了理論與實證相結(jié)合的分析方法,以產(chǎn)業(yè)“空心化”理論為出發(fā)點，結(jié)合我國目前產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的狀況和美國與日本產(chǎn)業(yè)“空心化”的情況，探究了可能影響我國產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的因素，并在理論上分析了資產(chǎn)價格、銀行信貸與產(chǎn)業(yè)“空心化”之間的關(guān)系。文章以2001至2011年制造業(yè)中各個子制造業(yè)的上市公司數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，運用個體固定效應(yīng)模型，證實了資產(chǎn)價格、銀行信貸與產(chǎn)業(yè)“空心化”這三者之間確實存在著相關(guān)關(guān)系。本文得出的結(jié)論是：房地產(chǎn)價格的上升會阻礙實體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，從而引發(fā)產(chǎn)業(yè)“空心化”；股票價格的上漲能推動公司自身的發(fā)展，會在一定程度上抑制產(chǎn)業(yè)“空心化”，但要嚴(yán)防股市扭曲所帶來的“空心化”現(xiàn)象；外匯價格的上升，會促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展，防止產(chǎn)業(yè)“空心化”的蔓延；銀行信貸規(guī)模擴(kuò)大，能促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展，但要謹(jǐn)防信貸市場扭曲導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)業(yè)“空心化”。最后，根據(jù)實證結(jié)果提出一些對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展有益的建議。 本文系統(tǒng)、完善地揭示了我國銀行信貸、資產(chǎn)價格與產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的作用機(jī)理與相互影響關(guān)系，有助于尋找可以促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的信貸政策，出臺相關(guān)的樓市調(diào)控政策和股市規(guī)范政策，減慢人民幣升值的速度，防止出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)“空心化”的現(xiàn)象，從而實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the industrial structure of our country has changed dramatically. This change includes two aspects, one is the change between industry and industry, the other is the change of the internal structure of a certain industry. The first aspect is the manufacturing industry (also known as the second industry) with the first and third industries in the whole production. The change in the proportion of the proportion of the industry system; the second mainly refers to the change in the proportion of the output ratio of the nine manufacturing industries. The main performance is that the growth of the heavy chemical industry and the primary product sub industry is relatively fast, the development of other industries is slow or even atrophy. This change has its historical background and practical significance. It is not only in me. China's economy is in the rapid development stage, and it is our country's entry into the WTO. Facing the economic globalization, the various resource elements have changed under the limited conditions. In view of the future economic development of our country, it is difficult to predict the advantages and disadvantages of this industrial structure at present, but to study the reasons for the change in depth and to predict the future economy. The development is of great significance.
In the previous literature, most scholars study the "hollowing" problem from the point of view of the region, and seldom do research from the specific sub manufacturing point of view. The study of the relationship between the development of the manufacturing industry and the asset price and the bank credit is not only the actual need for the concrete implementation of the "12th Five-Year" plan, but also the promotion of the production. The transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is the key to ensure the sustainable development of China's economy.
Based on the theory of theory and empirical analysis, this paper takes the theory of "hollowing" as the starting point, combined with the current situation of China's industrial development and the "hollowing" situation in the United States and Japan, and explores the factors that may affect the development of China's industry, and theoretically analyzes asset prices, bank credit and industry "empty". The article takes the data of the listed companies of each manufacturing industry in the manufacturing industry from 2001 to 2011 as the sample, and uses the individual fixed effect model to confirm the asset price, and there is a correlation between the bank credit and the industrial "hollowing" between the three parties. The conclusion is that the rise of real estate prices will be blocked. Hindering the development of the real economy, thus causing the "hollow" of the industry, the rise of the stock price can promote the development of the company itself, to a certain extent, to restrain the "hollow" of the industry, but to prevent the "hollow" phenomenon brought about by the stock market distortion; the rise of the foreign exchange price will promote the development of the industry and prevent the "hollow" industry of the industry. The expansion of bank credit can promote the development of industry, but it should be beware of the "hollowing" of the credit market distortions. Finally, some suggestions on the development of China's industry are put forward according to the empirical results.
This paper systematically reveals the bank credit, the mechanism of the action between the asset price and the industry and the mutual influence, which will help to find the credit policy which can promote the adjustment of the industrial structure, introduce the relevant regulation policy of the property market and the stock market standard policy, slow down the rate of RMB appreciation and prevent the "hollow" of the industry. In order to realize the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.4;F832.45;F121.3

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本文編號：2114181