發(fā)布時間：2018-06-24 01:16

  本文選題：產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)劃發(fā)布 + 股價波動��； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：信息技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)在國民生活中應用廣泛和國民經(jīng)濟中的支柱作用日益明顯，市場前景廣闊。但信息技術(shù)帶有明顯的新興產(chǎn)業(yè)特征，尚未成熟，大多企業(yè)仍處于成長期，資本積累不足，面對市場競爭的快速反應和大量前期投入的要求，企業(yè)難以僅依靠自身健康發(fā)展，這就對政府提出要求。而政府基于自身職能與產(chǎn)業(yè)需求制定并發(fā)布了一系列規(guī)劃文件，以期明確產(chǎn)業(yè)定位、合理資源配置。如2009年《國務院關(guān)于加快培育和發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的決定》、2012年系列“十二五”發(fā)展規(guī)劃。 本文主要研究政府發(fā)布信息技術(shù)相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)劃文件對產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)上市企業(yè)的資本市場價值是否存在短期影響，建立了產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)劃文件發(fā)布與上市企業(yè)股票價格短期波動的理論模型，選取兩類宏觀層面的規(guī)劃文件，利用滬深市場信息技術(shù)上市企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)進行實證研究。采用事件研究方法進行模型檢驗，結(jié)果表明，政府發(fā)布信息技術(shù)相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)劃文件后，將使投資者迅速調(diào)整預期和投資行為，引起短期內(nèi)的企業(yè)股價波動，波動的方向與規(guī)劃文件的內(nèi)容和投資者預期有關(guān)。 在證實事件影響存在的基礎上，本文建立股價異常收益調(diào)節(jié)因素的多元回歸模型，以檢驗企業(yè)個體間波動幅度差異的原因。該部分實證結(jié)果表明，企業(yè)規(guī)模對異常收益存在顯著正向影響，規(guī)模越大的企業(yè)在事件發(fā)生期間會有更大程度的股價上升或更小程度的股價下降。此外，還選取了財務杠桿中的資產(chǎn)負債率指標和股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)中的第一大股東持股比例指標作為考察因素，適度的資產(chǎn)負債率是增強投資者信心，，適度的股權(quán)集中度是治理結(jié)構(gòu)合理的表現(xiàn)，二者與短期股價異常收益均呈倒U形曲線關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:The information technology industry is widely used in the national life and plays an increasingly important role in the national economy. However, information technology has obvious characteristics of emerging industry, it is not mature, most enterprises are still in the growing period, and the capital accumulation is insufficient. In the face of the rapid reaction of market competition and the requirement of a large amount of pre-investment, it is difficult for enterprises to rely on their own healthy development. This demands the government. The government formulates and issues a series of planning documents based on its own functions and industrial needs in order to define the position of industry and allocate resources reasonably. For example, the State Council's decision on speeding up the cultivation and Development of Strategic emerging Industries in 2009, 2012 series "12-5" Development Plan. This paper mainly studies whether there is a short-term impact on the capital market value of the listed enterprises in the industry when the government releases the information technology-related industrial planning documents, and establishes a theoretical model of the short-term fluctuation of the industrial planning documents and the stock prices of the listed enterprises. Two kinds of macro-level planning documents are selected and the data of listed enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen market are used to carry out empirical research. The results show that after the government releases the information technology related industry planning documents, it will make investors adjust their expectations and investment behavior quickly, and cause short-term enterprise stock price fluctuations. The direction of the fluctuation is related to the contents of the planning documents and investors' expectations. On the basis of confirming the existence of the influence of events, this paper establishes a multivariate regression model of the regulating factors of abnormal return on stock price to examine the reasons for the fluctuation range difference among enterprises. The empirical results show that there is a significant positive impact of firm size on abnormal returns, and the larger the firm size is, the greater the stock price will be during the event. In addition, the asset-liability ratio index in financial leverage and the largest shareholder shareholding ratio index in equity structure are selected as the test factors, and the moderate asset-liability ratio is to enhance investors' confidence. Moderate concentration of equity is the reasonable performance of governance structure, and both of them are inversely U-shaped curve with abnormal return of short-term stock price.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.51;F275;F276.44

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 劉紅霞,韓Z

本文編號：2059317