本文選題：信貸渠道 + 風(fēng)險承擔(dān)渠道��； 參考：《江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機制一直是學(xué)術(shù)界的研究熱點，從央行發(fā)布貨幣政策信息到作用于實體經(jīng)濟需要一條具體的渠道，學(xué)術(shù)界對它的研究形成了諸多觀點。早期的研究建立在IS-LM分析框架之下，貨幣政策通過利率的調(diào)整影響企業(yè)投資規(guī)模，因此被稱為貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)的利率渠道。在這個理論中有一個重要的假設(shè)，就是金融市場是完全的，只存在債券和貨幣兩種資產(chǎn)，而銀行貸款和債券是完全替代的，企業(yè)在受到貨幣政策沖擊時能夠通過調(diào)整兩種資產(chǎn)的持有比率來改變經(jīng)濟行為。隨著研究的進展，學(xué)者們發(fā)現(xiàn)金融市場并不是完全的，企業(yè)存在諸多外部融資成本，債券融資渠道并不通暢，且在緊縮性貨幣政策下商業(yè)銀行的信貸資金有限，存在信貸配給的現(xiàn)象。因此，貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)的信貸渠道理論應(yīng)運而生。在這個渠道下，貨幣政策的變化會影響商業(yè)銀行的信貸行為，從而影響企業(yè)獲得資金的規(guī)模，最終作用到實體經(jīng)濟。信貸渠道觀點的形成背景是20世紀(jì)90年代西方各國普遍實施緊縮性的貨幣政策，同時《巴塞爾協(xié)議》的出現(xiàn)加強了對商業(yè)銀行的資本監(jiān)管，使得商業(yè)銀行的信貸投放受到約束。進入21世紀(jì)后，隨著美國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟泡沫的破滅，美聯(lián)儲開始長期實行寬松的貨幣政策，市場上出現(xiàn)流動性過剩的局面，此時信貸渠道觀點強調(diào)的信貸配給現(xiàn)象已不是很明顯。寬松的貨幣政策提高了商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險承擔(dān)意愿，也引起了學(xué)術(shù)界的關(guān)注，直到2007-2009年金融危機的爆發(fā)，貨幣政策的銀行風(fēng)險承擔(dān)渠道觀點被正式提出。該觀點作為信貸渠道觀點的補充，重點討論貨幣政策變動對銀行風(fēng)險承擔(dān)意愿的影響，但其理論分析的框架基礎(chǔ)與信貸渠道觀點是相同的。 本文在貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)的信貸渠道和銀行風(fēng)險承擔(dān)渠道的理論框架之下，結(jié)合我國實際情況，分析貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)下我國商業(yè)銀行的信貸行為。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)長期的流動性過剩造成了商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險承擔(dān)意愿增強，另外為控制通貨膨脹和市場風(fēng)險實行的穩(wěn)健貨幣政策又約束了商業(yè)銀行的信貸投放，兩者同時對我國商業(yè)銀行的信貸行為產(chǎn)生影響。前者對商業(yè)銀行信貸行為的影響是正向的，后者則是負(fù)向的，在兩者的同時作用下商業(yè)銀行的信貸行為面臨矛盾的抉擇。因此，需要在研究中加入新的因素，分析其對商業(yè)銀行信貸行為的影響，以及在這種情況下商業(yè)銀行如何在兩者之間進行權(quán)衡。 本文首先對影響商業(yè)銀行信貸行為的因素進行區(qū)分和解釋，發(fā)現(xiàn)它們分別為宏觀經(jīng)濟因素、貨幣政策因素、金融監(jiān)管因素和銀行自身因素，并且根據(jù)理性預(yù)期理論提出了商業(yè)銀行對貨幣政策的預(yù)期因素。這些因素同時在宏觀和微觀層面對商業(yè)銀行的信貸行為產(chǎn)生影響，并且因銀行自身特征的不同，影響程度也不相同。在參考前人對貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道的實證研究之后，結(jié)合以上因素，本文選擇了實證分析所需的變量，并建立了實證模型。然后根據(jù)變量選取搜集了我國20家商業(yè)銀行2004-2011年的微觀數(shù)據(jù)，還有相應(yīng)的宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)和貨幣政策數(shù)據(jù)，并對20家商業(yè)銀行按照規(guī)模和產(chǎn)權(quán)進行分類。 通過傳統(tǒng)的實證模型回歸結(jié)果，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)我國貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)的信貸渠道和銀行風(fēng)險承擔(dān)渠道是同時存在的，，而且商業(yè)銀行的自身特征對銀行信貸的影響是顯著的。資本充足率雖然約束了商業(yè)銀行信貸擴張的能力，但增強了商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定經(jīng)營的信心，銀行上市同樣會約束商業(yè)銀行的信貸擴張，但資本充足率高的銀行通過上市融資更容易擴大信貸規(guī)模。大型的國有商業(yè)銀行擁有更多樣化的融資渠道，貨幣政策沖擊難以影響其信貸行為，其大多是在固定的發(fā)展軌道上經(jīng)營。在引入貨幣政策預(yù)期變量的模型回歸中，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)商業(yè)銀行對貨幣政策的預(yù)期是存在的，且有效影響了股份制商業(yè)銀行的信貸行為，但是對國有大型商業(yè)銀行信貸行為的影響幾乎不存在。根據(jù)所得結(jié)論，本文提出了五點政策建議：（1）商業(yè)銀行要通過自身實力的增強提高抵御風(fēng)險的能力；（2）要加強對國有大型商業(yè)銀行的監(jiān)管，促進金融穩(wěn)定；（3）積極引導(dǎo)銀行資金流向中小企業(yè)；（4）加強對商業(yè)銀行的預(yù)期引導(dǎo)，使其對可能出現(xiàn)的貨幣政策變化提前做出業(yè)務(wù)調(diào)整；（5）加強對非銀行業(yè)金融機構(gòu)的監(jiān)管，使貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)能夠真正發(fā)揮效力。
[Abstract]:The transmission mechanism of monetary policy has been a hot topic in academic circles, the monetary policy information released from the central bank to apply to the real economy needs a specific channel, the academic researches on it formed many views. Early studies based on the IS-LM analysis framework, monetary policy through the adjustment of interest rates affect the enterprise investment scale, because This is called the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission. There is an important assumption in the theory, that financial markets are complete, there are only two kinds of bonds and currency assets, and bank loans and bonds are imperfect substitutes, holding ratio of enterprises can through two kinds of assets under monetary policy impact to change the behavior of the economy . with the progress of the study, researchers found that the financial market is not perfect, there are many enterprises in the cost of external financing and bond financing channel is not smooth, and the commercial banks to tighten monetary policy under the credit funds are limited, there is credit rationing phenomenon. Therefore, as monetary policy conduction in the credit channel theory. This A channel, changes in monetary policy will affect the credit behavior of commercial banks, thus affecting the enterprises access to capital scale, and ultimately affects the real economy. The formation of credit channel view is the background of the 1990s western countries generally implement the tight monetary policy, at the same time, Basel agreement > < strengthening of the commercial bank Capital regulation, the commercial bank credit constrained. After entering in twenty-first Century, with the Internet economy bubble burst, the Fed began to implement monetary policy for a long time, the situation of excess liquidity in the market, credit rationing in the credit channel view that is not obvious. The loose monetary policy Policy to increase the risk of commercial banks will undertake, also attracted the attention of the academic circles for 2007-2009 years, until the outbreak of the financial crisis, the bank risk-taking channel of monetary policy point of view. The view was put forward as a supplement to the credit channel view, focuses on the influence of changes in monetary policy will bear the risk of the bank, but the On the basis of analysis of the framework and the credit channel view is the same.
Under the theoretical framework of this article assume the credit channel in the monetary policy transmission channel and bank risk, combined with China's actual situation, analysis of credit behavior of commercial banks in China's monetary policy conduction. This paper found that long-term excess liquidity caused by commercial banks risk taking will increase, in addition to control inflation and market The implementation of prudent monetary policy risk and constraints of the commercial bank credit, both have an impact on the credit behavior of commercial banks in China. The influence of commercial bank credit behavior is positive, the latter is negative, faced with contradictory choice in the credit behavior of commercial banks under the action of both. Therefore, to To add a new factor in the research, analyzes its influence on the credit behavior of commercial banks, and in this case how the commercial banks in the trade-off between the two.
Firstly, differentiate and explain the influence factors of commercial bank credit behavior, found that they are macroeconomic factors, monetary policy, financial regulatory factors and the bank's own factors, and according to the rational expectations theory put forward the factors of commercial banks on monetary policy expected. At the same time these factors in the macro and micro level Have an impact on the credit behavior of commercial banks, and banks due to the different characteristics of the influence degree is not the same. After the empirical basis of the previous research on the monetary policy transmission channel, combined with the above factors, this paper choose the empirical analysis of the variables required, and established the empirical model. Then according to the variables collected in China 20 Micro data of commercial banks for 2004-2011 years, as well as the corresponding macroeconomic data and monetary policy data of 20 commercial banks in accordance with the size and property classification.
Through the empirical model of traditional regression results, we found that China's monetary policy transmission channels of credit and bank risk taking channel exist simultaneously, and the impact of commercial banks on bank credit characteristics is significant. Although the capacity constraints of capital adequacy ratio of commercial bank credit expansion, but enhanced the stability of commercial banks Fixed business confidence, banks will also restrain the banks credit expansion, but the capital adequacy rate of banks through the listing and financing to expand the scale of credit. Large state-owned commercial banks have more diversified financing channels, the impact of monetary policy to affect the credit behavior, which is mostly in the development of rail fixed on by Camp. The introduction of monetary policy is expected to return variable model, this paper found that the expected commercial banks on monetary policy exists, and effectively influence the credit behavior of joint-stock commercial banks, but the impact on the large state-owned commercial bank credit behavior is almost non-existent. According to the conclusion, this paper puts forward five suggestions: (1 ) commercial banks should improve the ability to resist risks through their strength; (2) to strengthen the supervision of large state-owned commercial banks, to promote financial stability; (3) actively guide bank capital flows to small and medium-sized enterprises; (4) strengthening the guidance on commercial banks is expected to make the business adjustment of monetary policy may change the advance ; (5) to strengthen the supervision of non bank financial institutions, so that monetary policy can really play effect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.4;F822.0

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