本文選題：分析師 + 盈利預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：與一般投資者相比,證券分析師具有專業(yè)優(yōu)勢(shì)和信息優(yōu)勢(shì),能夠通過(guò)發(fā)布盈利預(yù)測(cè)向資本市場(chǎng)提供新的信息,從而減少資本市場(chǎng)的信息不對(duì)稱,提高資源配置效率。大量研究表明,分析師的盈利預(yù)測(cè)具有一定的準(zhǔn)確性和價(jià)值相關(guān)性,但影響分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性的因素較多,主要可以分為目標(biāo)公司方面的影響因素和分析師方面的影響因素。本文主要研究實(shí)地調(diào)研對(duì)分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性的影響,是對(duì)分析師方面影響因素研究的一個(gè)有效補(bǔ)充。 本文以2008～2010年中國(guó)證券分析師的盈利預(yù)測(cè)和實(shí)地調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,對(duì)實(shí)地調(diào)研對(duì)分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性的影響,以及目標(biāo)公司盈余管理動(dòng)機(jī)、信息披露質(zhì)量對(duì)這種影響的作用進(jìn)行了深入研究,研究結(jié)果表明,目前我國(guó)分析師的實(shí)地調(diào)研具有一定的有效性。 本文發(fā)現(xiàn),實(shí)地調(diào)研能夠顯著降低分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)的誤差,提高盈利預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性,即實(shí)地調(diào)研作為分析師獲取私有信息的重要渠道,能夠提供有價(jià)值的信息。本文的實(shí)證結(jié)果也為之前學(xué)者的研究提供了證據(jù)支持,即預(yù)測(cè)期的長(zhǎng)短、目標(biāo)公司的規(guī)模、盈利波動(dòng)性、盈余管理動(dòng)機(jī)的存在會(huì)對(duì)分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性產(chǎn)生負(fù)向影響,而信息披露質(zhì)量、目標(biāo)公司得到的分析師關(guān)注度會(huì)對(duì)分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性產(chǎn)生正向影響。 本文還發(fā)現(xiàn),對(duì)于存在明顯盈余管理動(dòng)機(jī)和信息披露質(zhì)量較低的公司進(jìn)行實(shí)地調(diào)研,對(duì)分析師盈利預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性的提高效應(yīng)越大。因?yàn)樵谶@類公司中,公共信息的可獲得性較差、信息質(zhì)量較低,針對(duì)這些公司的實(shí)地調(diào)研所獲取的私有信息具有更高的邊際收益,是對(duì)公共信息披露不足的一種有效補(bǔ)充。
[Abstract]:Compared with general investors, securities analysts have professional advantages and information advantages, and can provide new information to the capital market by issuing profit forecasts, thus reducing the information asymmetry in the capital market and improving the efficiency of resource allocation. A large number of studies have shown that analysts' earnings forecasts have certain accuracy and value correlation, but there are many factors that affect the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. It can be divided into the influence factors of the target company and the influence factors of the analysts. This paper focuses on the impact of field research on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts, which is an effective complement to the research on the factors affecting analysts. This paper takes the profit forecast and field survey data of Chinese securities analysts from 2008 to 2010 as samples to analyze the impact of field research on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast, as well as the earnings management motivation of target companies. The effect of the quality of information disclosure on this kind of influence has been studied in depth. The results show that the field research of Chinese analysts is effective. This paper finds that field research can significantly reduce the error of analysts' earnings forecasts and improve the accuracy of earnings forecasts. As an important channel for analysts to obtain private information, field research can provide valuable information. The empirical results of this paper also provide evidence support for previous studies, that is, the length of the forecast period, the size of the target company, the volatility of earnings, and the existence of earnings management motivation will have a negative impact on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast. And the quality of information disclosure and the analyst focus on target companies will have a positive impact on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. It is also found that the higher the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts, the greater the effect of field research on companies with obvious earnings management motivation and low disclosure quality. Because of the poor availability of public information and the low quality of information in these companies, the private information obtained by field research for these companies has higher marginal income, which is an effective supplement to the insufficient disclosure of public information.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F275

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