本文選題：現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制養(yǎng)老金 + 完全積累制養(yǎng)老金��； 參考：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：自上世紀(jì)90年代初,人口老齡化的問(wèn)題逐漸在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家凸顯,世界各國(guó)都開(kāi)始了針對(duì)公共養(yǎng)老金體制的改革。在這樣的大背景下我國(guó)也開(kāi)始了以建立個(gè)人賬戶(hù)為標(biāo)志的養(yǎng)老金制度改革。然而隨著十多年的發(fā)展,改革目前陷入了兩難的境地,一方面?zhèn)�人賬戶(hù)難以做實(shí),投資回報(bào)率低,另一方面各省的社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌財(cái)務(wù)狀況差距大,個(gè)別省份收不抵支嚴(yán)重。個(gè)人賬戶(hù)的存廢和養(yǎng)老金制度的費(fèi)率一直是學(xué)術(shù)爭(zhēng)論的焦點(diǎn),也與廣大民眾息息相關(guān)。 基于此,本文通過(guò)對(duì)現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制與完全積累制養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃的分析,揭示其背后的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義并且在收益風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和分散化效應(yīng)等方面對(duì)二者進(jìn)行了全面的比較。隨后本文在資產(chǎn)投資組合的框架下,通過(guò)歷史數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算出我國(guó)與數(shù)個(gè)OECD國(guó)家現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制與完全積累制養(yǎng)老金的最優(yōu)配比,并進(jìn)行了橫向和縱向的對(duì)比。通過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),我國(guó)個(gè)人賬戶(hù)費(fèi)率所占的比例遠(yuǎn)高于最優(yōu)比例。如果保持現(xiàn)有的總體費(fèi)率不變,個(gè)人賬戶(hù)的合理費(fèi)率應(yīng)該在2%左右。除此之外,通過(guò)繪制不同情景下的有效邊界,本文證明了對(duì)中國(guó)的個(gè)體而言,社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌的存在能夠有效地分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn),提高收益,更有效地實(shí)現(xiàn)資源跨期配置。最后本文給出了三個(gè)結(jié)論：第一,個(gè)人賬戶(hù)費(fèi)率應(yīng)該適當(dāng)下調(diào),以減輕政府做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶(hù)的財(cái)政壓力和企業(yè)與個(gè)人的繳費(fèi)負(fù)擔(dān)；第二,應(yīng)當(dāng)提高社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌的效率,降低費(fèi)率或提高替代率以吸引更多年輕勞動(dòng)者加入,提高覆蓋率,形成良性循環(huán)；第三,個(gè)人賬戶(hù)可以保留,但是僅作為社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌計(jì)劃面對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)或人口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)的緩沖基金。作者期望借助本文的研究,為科學(xué)地確定我國(guó)社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌和個(gè)人賬戶(hù)配比,合理化我國(guó)的公共養(yǎng)老金制度提供潛在的理論支持框架和決策實(shí)證依據(jù)。 本文創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)在于方法的創(chuàng)新,對(duì)原有計(jì)算最優(yōu)配比的模型進(jìn)行了三點(diǎn)改進(jìn)：一、本文假設(shè)完全積累制養(yǎng)老金不僅僅投資于股票市場(chǎng),還投資于債券市場(chǎng),為了簡(jiǎn)化模型,假設(shè)債券投資都為長(zhǎng)期政府債券。二、由于養(yǎng)老基金投資期限都非常長(zhǎng),所以本文計(jì)算時(shí)將政府債券視為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)。三、原模型是假設(shè)完全積累制養(yǎng)老金計(jì)劃的資產(chǎn)配置確定,由于目前中國(guó)的個(gè)人賬戶(hù)入市問(wèn)題仍存在較大爭(zhēng)議,本文構(gòu)建模型時(shí)放松了這個(gè)假設(shè),這些改進(jìn)使模型更加貼近于實(shí)際。本文存在的不足在于,將收益率的均值和方差的歷史值作為對(duì)未來(lái)的估計(jì),這是由于各國(guó)居民收入僅有年度數(shù)據(jù),相應(yīng)地股票和債券收益率也只能選取年度數(shù)據(jù),數(shù)據(jù)樣本過(guò)少,無(wú)法采用Garch模型等方法對(duì)未來(lái)的收益率方差等進(jìn)行估計(jì)。
[Abstract]:Since the early 1990s , the problem of population ageing has gradually become prominent in the developed countries , and the countries of the world have begun to reform the public pension system . However , with the development of more than ten years , the reform is now in a dilemma . On the one hand , the individual accounts are hard to do , the return on investment is low , on the other hand , the social integration and financial situation of the provinces are large , and the income of individual provinces is not serious . The deposit and retirement of individual accounts and the rate of pension system have been the focus of academic debate and are closely related to the general public .

On the basis of this , this paper makes a comprehensive comparison between the current payment system and the fully accumulated pension plan , reveals the economic significance behind it and compares them in terms of income risk and decentralization effect .
Second , it should improve the efficiency of social integration , reduce the rate or increase the substitution rate to attract more young workers to join , improve the coverage rate and form a virtuous circle ;
Third , the individual account can be retained , but only as the buffer fund when the social integration plan faces the economic or demographic risk . The author expects to use the research in this paper to scientifically determine the proportion of social integration and individual account in our country , and to provide the potential theoretical support frame and decision - making evidence base for the public pension system in our country .

This paper points out that the innovation of the method is the innovation of the method . Three - point improvement is made to the original model of calculating the optimal proportion : firstly , it is assumed that the fully accumulated pension is not only invested in the stock market but also in the bond market . In order to simplify the model , it is assumed that the bond investment is a long - term government bond .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F842.6;F832.51

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