本文選題：住房流動(dòng)性 + 吸納周期��； 參考：《中國(guó)軟科學(xué)》2014年01期

【摘要】：吸納周期是表征住房市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性特征的重要指標(biāo),本文研究了這一指標(biāo)在住房市場(chǎng)監(jiān)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用原理與方法,并使用我國(guó)40個(gè)大中城市數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。研究表明:吸納周期存在一個(gè)表征市場(chǎng)供求均衡與價(jià)格穩(wěn)定的均衡水平,市場(chǎng)當(dāng)前吸納周期水平與其均衡水平的對(duì)比關(guān)系可以作為判斷市場(chǎng)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)變化的重要參考。當(dāng)吸納周期高于均衡水平時(shí),價(jià)格下跌的概率增加,土地購置與開發(fā)活動(dòng)減弱;當(dāng)吸納周期低于均衡水平時(shí),價(jià)格上漲的概率增加,土地購置與開發(fā)活動(dòng)增強(qiáng)。通過實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn),我國(guó)40個(gè)主要城市平均的吸納周期均衡水平約為12個(gè)月,但存在著較大的城市間差異。除了數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)質(zhì)量的影響以外,住房?jī)r(jià)格上漲預(yù)期、土地與開發(fā)成本、市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及市場(chǎng)壟斷程度等因素都會(huì)影響到均衡水平的大小。因此,在實(shí)際應(yīng)用中,需要在不同城市設(shè)置相應(yīng)的吸納周期均衡水平。
[Abstract]:The absorption cycle is an important indicator to characterize the liquidity characteristics of the housing market. This paper studies the application principle and method of this index in housing market monitoring, and makes an empirical analysis using the data of 40 large and medium-sized cities in China. The study shows that there exists an equilibrium level of market supply and demand equilibrium and price stability in the absorption cycle. The contrast between the current absorption cycle level and its equilibrium level can be used as an important reference to judge the change of market development trend. When the absorption cycle is higher than the equilibrium level, the probability of price falling increases and the land acquisition and development activities weaken, and when the absorption cycle is below the equilibrium level, the probability of price rising increases and the land acquisition and development activities increase. Through empirical research, it is found that the average equilibrium level of absorption cycle is about 12 months in 40 major cities in China, but there are large differences among cities. In addition to the impact of statistical quality, the expected rise in housing prices, land and development costs, market risks and market monopoly will affect the size of the equilibrium level. Therefore, in practical application, it is necessary to set up corresponding absorption cycle equilibrium level in different cities.
【作者單位】： 清華大學(xué)恒隆房地產(chǎn)研究中心;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(70873072) 國(guó)家社科基金重大項(xiàng)目(09&ZD042)
【分類號(hào)】：F293.3

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前4條

1 鄭思齊 ,劉洪玉;吸納周期:一個(gè)比空置率更能有效反映住宅市場(chǎng)供求狀況的指標(biāo)[J];中國(guó)房地產(chǎn);2004年02期

2 楊振鵬;劉洪玉;;新建住房吸納周期:一個(gè)領(lǐng)先的預(yù)警指標(biāo)[J];中國(guó)房地產(chǎn);2011年02期

3 吳t，

本文編號(hào)：1960712