本文選題：房地產(chǎn)市場 + 股票市場��； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：在現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)中,房地產(chǎn)與股票在任何國家都是兩種最主要的投資品種,它們的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r已經(jīng)對(duì)各國經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行起到至關(guān)重要的作用。股票市場是最容易滋生泡沫的虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì),房地產(chǎn)市場作為實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)與虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)兼具的產(chǎn)業(yè)也容易產(chǎn)生泡沫,兩個(gè)市場是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)聚集的重要載體。大量的歷史事實(shí)顯示,股票市場的波動(dòng)與房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展存在較強(qiáng)的相關(guān)性,當(dāng)這種相關(guān)性達(dá)到一定程度時(shí),會(huì)加劇兩個(gè)市場之間風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳導(dǎo),給整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成嚴(yán)重后果。系統(tǒng)探討房地產(chǎn)業(yè)和股票市場之間的關(guān)聯(lián)和互動(dòng),對(duì)決策者和監(jiān)管者來說,對(duì)防范金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和制定國家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策具有重要的意義；與此同時(shí),站在投資者的角度,通過研究房地產(chǎn)和股票市場波動(dòng)的相關(guān)性,對(duì)于各個(gè)投資者建立有效的投資組合、做出正確的投資決策、獲得更豐厚的投資回報(bào)無疑也具有重要意義。 本文通過選取中房上海住宅指數(shù)和上證綜指作為研究對(duì)象,首先比較研究兩指數(shù)的編制方法,對(duì)比發(fā)現(xiàn)兩指數(shù)都是通過定基期的加權(quán)平均的方法計(jì)算得出,同時(shí),對(duì)比研究中房指數(shù)與國房指數(shù)的異同,發(fā)現(xiàn)中房指數(shù)具有縱向橫向?qū)Ρ鹊膬?yōu)勢,更能及時(shí)準(zhǔn)確的反應(yīng)房地產(chǎn)周期和未來的發(fā)展趨勢。 接著,文章闡述房地產(chǎn)與股票的相關(guān)概念及特性,指出房地產(chǎn)與其他實(shí)體產(chǎn)業(yè)的不同之處,結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)與虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)兼具的二重屬性,從消費(fèi)渠道、融資渠道、投資渠道、市場波動(dòng)渠道來研究與股票市場的作用機(jī)制。 之后,文章通過對(duì)中房上海住宅指數(shù)與上證綜指進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)兩指數(shù)的收益率存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系,且股票市場對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場表現(xiàn)為財(cái)富效應(yīng),而房地產(chǎn)市場對(duì)股票市場具有強(qiáng)烈的替代效應(yīng)和擠占效應(yīng)。并且結(jié)合中國的具體國情對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行解釋。 最后,文章結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)市場與股票市場所呈現(xiàn)的關(guān)聯(lián)性特點(diǎn),站在決策者和監(jiān)管部門的角度得到一些思考和見解,同時(shí)也為投資者和消費(fèi)者提出資產(chǎn)配置的建議。
[Abstract]:In modern economic society, real estate and stock are the two most important kinds of investment in any country. Their development has played a vital role in the economic operation of all countries. Stock market is the most likely to breed bubble virtual economy, real estate market as both real economy and virtual economy industry is prone to bubble, the two markets are the important carrier of risk aggregation. A large number of historical facts show that there is a strong correlation between the fluctuation of stock market and the development of real estate market. When the correlation reaches a certain degree, it will aggravate the transmission of risk between the two markets and cause serious consequences to the whole economy. Systematically exploring the linkages and interactions between real estate and the stock market is important for policymakers and regulators to prevent financial risks and formulate national macroeconomic policies; at the same time, from the perspective of investors, By studying the correlation between the fluctuation of real estate and stock market, it is of great significance for each investor to establish an effective investment portfolio, to make the right investment decision and to obtain a better return on investment. In this paper, the Shanghai Housing Index and Shanghai Composite Index are selected as the research objects. Firstly, the compilation methods of the two indices are compared and studied. It is found that the two indices are calculated by the weighted average method of the fixed base period, and at the same time, Comparing and studying the similarities and differences between the middle house index and the national house index, it is found that the middle house index has the advantage of vertical and horizontal contrast, and can reflect the real estate cycle and the future development trend in time and accurately. Then, the paper expounds the related concepts and characteristics of real estate and stock, points out the differences between real estate and other real estate industries, combines the dual attributes of real estate economy and virtual economy, from consumption channels and financing channels. Investment channels, market volatility channels to study the role of the stock market mechanism. Then, through the empirical study of Shanghai Housing Index and Shanghai Composite Index, the paper finds that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the returns of the two indices, and the stock market has a wealth effect on the real estate market. But the real estate market has the strong substitution effect and the crowding effect to the stock market. And combined with the specific situation of China to explain the empirical results. Finally, according to the characteristics of the relationship between the real estate market and the stock market, this paper obtains some thoughts and opinions from the perspective of policy makers and regulators, and puts forward some suggestions on asset allocation for investors and consumers at the same time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F832.51

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本文編號(hào)：1842470