本文選題：貨幣政策 + 銀行信貸渠道��； 參考：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著貨幣政策在一國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中起著越來越重要的作用，各國的中央銀行利用貨幣政策來調(diào)節(jié)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的頻率越來越頻繁。這也促使各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)流派推動(dòng)了貨幣基礎(chǔ)理論的發(fā)展，其中主要理論有：貨幣內(nèi)生性和外生性理論、貨幣中性和非中性理論、貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。貨幣政策可以通過利率、資產(chǎn)價(jià)格、匯率、信貸規(guī)模等不同的渠道來影響實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，并且其傳導(dǎo)的速度和效果依據(jù)各國的發(fā)展情況而有不同。 現(xiàn)如今，中國處于計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)體制向市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制過渡的時(shí)期，雖然金融市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷了從無到有的迅猛發(fā)展過程，但是還是處于初級(jí)階段，存在著金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展不完善、金融資產(chǎn)種類單一等缺陷，所以在我國的金融市場(chǎng)還是以銀行體系為主的間接融資市場(chǎng)，從而我國的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制是以銀行信貸渠道為主導(dǎo)渠道的，所以對(duì)銀行信貸渠道的研究是重要的，可以證實(shí)貨幣政策的有效性問題。 通過數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的理論知識(shí)和計(jì)量軟件Eviews的運(yùn)用，對(duì)銀行信貸渠道分階段和整體研究的實(shí)證分析得出：貨幣政策通過信貸渠道的傳導(dǎo)是有效的，三個(gè)層次的貨幣供應(yīng)量和金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款總額存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系，能夠影響貸款總額的變動(dòng)，但對(duì)其作用的顯著性和穩(wěn)定性又是各不相同的；而金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款總額和產(chǎn)出、通貨膨脹也存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系，貸款總額的增長會(huì)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。從VAR模型的脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解結(jié)果來看，貨幣供應(yīng)量和金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款總額對(duì)產(chǎn)出都有一定促進(jìn)作用，其中貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)GDP的影響要大于貸款總額對(duì)產(chǎn)出的影響，這說明我國在運(yùn)用貨幣政策進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控時(shí)，短期內(nèi)主要依靠貸款總額，長期內(nèi)主要依靠調(diào)整貨幣供應(yīng)量。經(jīng)過實(shí)證分析可得，，我國銀行信貸渠道傳導(dǎo)是有效的，但也存在著不暢通的情況，并對(duì)不暢通的方面進(jìn)行分析和提出解決建議。
[Abstract]:With the monetary policy playing a more and more important role in the economic development of a country, the central banks of various countries use monetary policy to adjust the frequency of macro-economy more and more frequently. This also promotes the development of monetary basic theory in various economic schools, among which the main theories are: endogenous and exogenous monetary theory, monetary neutral and non-neutral theory, monetary policy transmission mechanism. Monetary policy can influence the development of real economy through different channels, such as interest rate, asset price, exchange rate, credit scale, etc. Nowadays, China is in the period of transition from planned economy system to market economy system. Although the financial market has experienced a rapid development from scratch, it is still in the primary stage, and there is an imperfect financial market development. Because of the defects such as the single type of financial assets, the financial market in our country is still an indirect financing market dominated by the banking system. Thus, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in our country is dominated by the credit channels of banks. Therefore, the study of bank credit channels is important to verify the effectiveness of monetary policy. Based on the theoretical knowledge of quantitative economics and the application of econometric software Eviews, it is concluded that the transmission of monetary policy through credit channels is effective through the empirical analysis of bank credit channels in stages and as a whole. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the three levels of money supply and the total amount of loans of financial institutions, which can affect the changes of the total amount of loans, but the significance and stability of their effects are different, while the total amount of loans and output of financial institutions are different. Inflation also has a long-term co-integration relationship, the growth of total loans will promote economic growth. According to the results of impulse response and variance decomposition of VAR model, both money supply and total loan amount of financial institutions can promote the output to some extent, in which the effect of money supply on GDP is greater than that of total loan on output. This shows that in the use of monetary policy for economic regulation, China mainly depends on the total amount of loans in the short term, and mainly on the adjustment of the money supply in the long term. Through empirical analysis, we can find that the transmission of bank credit channels in China is effective, but there is also a lack of smooth situation, and the unsmooth aspects are analyzed and some suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.4

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