本文選題：房地產(chǎn)上市公司 + 負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)�。� 參考：《廣西師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)迅猛發(fā)展,已經(jīng)成為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),與許多行業(yè)關(guān)系密切,高杠桿,高風(fēng)險的財務(wù)運作模式引起了社會的廣泛關(guān)注。由于我國金融市場體制發(fā)展不完善,融資方式單一,造成大部分房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)依靠大量負(fù)債經(jīng)營,債券市場發(fā)展的滯后性,造成負(fù)債過度依賴銀行的貸款。融資方式的單一性無形中放大了房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的財務(wù)風(fēng)險。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),關(guān)系到社會每一個人的利益,由于具有高度的關(guān)聯(lián)性,深入研究分析該行業(yè)的債務(wù)籌資結(jié)構(gòu),找出影響負(fù)債結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)鍵因素,尋找優(yōu)化現(xiàn)階段我國房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)負(fù)債結(jié)構(gòu)的方法,并通過調(diào)整債務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu),降低房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的財務(wù)風(fēng)險,不僅對房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)自身有著重要的現(xiàn)實意義,對與其相關(guān)聯(lián)的債權(quán)人、政策制定者等利益相關(guān)者也同樣具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 MM理論的提出,標(biāo)志著現(xiàn)代資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論研究的開始。隨著研究的深入,學(xué)者們由僅僅關(guān)注負(fù)債與權(quán)益的配比過渡到研究負(fù)債內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整,越來越多中外學(xué)者開始重視研究負(fù)債的期限結(jié)構(gòu),并提出了代理成本理論、信號傳遞理論和期限匹配理論。隨著計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)被廣泛應(yīng)用于經(jīng)濟(jì)研究領(lǐng)域,這些理論在90年度后逐步被西方學(xué)者的實證檢驗所證實,但是由于中國對負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)的研究起步較晚,加上國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)市場狀況異于西方的成熟市場,盲目套用西方現(xiàn)有理論可能得出錯誤的結(jié)論,因此有必要結(jié)合國內(nèi)自身經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況對負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行研究。 負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)的決策不但影響公司自身財務(wù)風(fēng)險、融資成本,而且涉及到債權(quán)人的利益。作為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展重要行業(yè)的房地產(chǎn)業(yè),不合理的債務(wù)匹配將導(dǎo)致較高的流動性風(fēng)險,進(jìn)而提高作為房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)主要債權(quán)人——銀行業(yè)的經(jīng)營風(fēng)險,銀行業(yè)又與其他行業(yè)關(guān)系密切,可謂是牽一發(fā)而動全身。因此研究房地產(chǎn)上市公司負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)的現(xiàn)狀和影響因素,進(jìn)而提出合理對策,引導(dǎo)房地產(chǎn)上市公司選擇合理的負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)就變得非常重要了。 本文首先對國內(nèi)外有關(guān)負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)的的理論和文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行綜述,回顧國外負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)相關(guān)的經(jīng)典理論和實證研究現(xiàn)狀,包括代理成本理論、信號傳遞理論和期限匹配理論,介紹國內(nèi)外對負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)影響因素的實證研究現(xiàn)狀,在吸取前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,評價國內(nèi)學(xué)者對負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)研究的不足之處；其次分析現(xiàn)階段我國房地產(chǎn)上市公司的負(fù)債融資方式和負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀,從整體上把握房地產(chǎn)上市公司負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)的特點,對房地產(chǎn)上市公司負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)時間序列的變換情況進(jìn)行分析并簡要解釋可能的原因：再次,對可能影響房地產(chǎn)上市公司負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)的因素進(jìn)行理論分析并提出研究假設(shè),選取2006-2010年在滬深A(yù)股上市的房地產(chǎn)公司作為研究樣本,通過構(gòu)建非平衡面板計量模型對所選樣本公司的負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)影響因素進(jìn)行實證研究和分析。采用描述性統(tǒng)計和構(gòu)建面板數(shù)據(jù)多元回歸模型來檢驗提出的理論假設(shè),面板數(shù)據(jù)模型經(jīng)冗余固定效應(yīng)檢驗和豪斯曼檢驗后選擇個體固定效應(yīng)模型作為最佳的面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,在檢驗確定不存在多重共線、異方差和序列相關(guān)以及剔除不顯著變量后得出最終的回歸結(jié)果。實證結(jié)果表明,公司規(guī)模、成長機(jī)會、股權(quán)集中度、盈利能力、資本充足率、流動性狀況、周轉(zhuǎn)能力和資產(chǎn)期限這八個因素與房地產(chǎn)上市公司負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)有顯著關(guān)系,而董事長變更未得到驗證。資本充足率、資產(chǎn)期限、流動性狀況、股權(quán)集中度對負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)影響較大,公司規(guī)模、成長性、周轉(zhuǎn)能力和盈利能力對負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)的影響較小。實證結(jié)果也證實了代理成本理論、信號傳遞理論和期限匹配理論,說明這些理論在解釋我國房地產(chǎn)上市公司負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)時同樣適用。最后,本文對實證分析結(jié)果進(jìn)行歸納總結(jié),進(jìn)而針對我國房地產(chǎn)上市公司負(fù)債期限結(jié)構(gòu)存在的問題提出政策建議,并對研究的不足之處進(jìn)行分析。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate industry has developed rapidly and has become the pillar industry of the national economy. It is closely related to many industries. The high leverage and high risk financial operation mode has aroused wide attention of the society. Because of the imperfect development of the financial market system and the single financing mode, most real estate enterprises rely on a large amount of debt management and debt. The lag of the development of the coupon market causes the debt to overrely on the loan of the bank. The single nature of the financing mode has greatly enlarged the financial risk of the real estate enterprises. As the pillar industry of the national economy, the real estate industry is related to the interests of every one of the society, and the debt financing of the industry is deeply studied and analyzed because of its high connection. Structure, find out the key factors that affect the debt structure, look for the method to optimize the current stage of the debt structure of our real estate enterprises, and reduce the financial risk of the real estate enterprises by adjusting the debt structure, not only to the real estate enterprise itself, but also to the related creditors, policy makers and other stakeholders. It is also of great practical significance.
The introduction of MM theory marks the beginning of the research on the theory of modern capital structure. With the deepening of the research, scholars have changed from the ratio of debt to equity to the adjustment of internal structure of debt. More and more scholars and Chinese and foreign scholars began to pay attention to the term structure of debt, and put forward the theory of agency cost, the theory of signal transmission and the period. With the extensive application of econometrics in the field of economic research, these theories have been confirmed by western scholars' empirical tests after 90. However, because of the late start of the study of debt maturity structure in China, and the domestic economic market situation is different from the western mature market, it is possible to blindly apply the existing western theories. It is necessary to draw a wrong conclusion, so it is necessary to study the term structure of debt with domestic economic conditions.
The decision of debt maturity structure not only affects the company's own financial risk, the cost of financing, but also involves the interests of the creditor. As an important industry of the national economy, the irrational matching of debt will lead to higher liquidity risk, and then improve the management risk of the main creditor of the real estate enterprise, the banking industry. As the banking industry is closely related to other industries, it can be described as a whole body. Therefore, it is not often important to study the current situation and influence factors of the debt maturity structure of the listed real estate companies, and then put forward a reasonable countermeasure to guide the real estate listed companies to choose a reasonable debt maturity structure.
This paper first reviews the theory and literature of debt maturity structure at home and abroad, reviews the classical theories and empirical studies of foreign debt maturity structure, including the theory of agency cost, the theory of signal transmission and the theory of term matching, and introduces the status of the empirical research on the factors affecting the limit structure of debt period at home and abroad. On the basis of previous research results, we evaluate the shortcomings of the domestic scholars on the study of debt maturity structure; secondly, analyze the current situation of debt financing and debt maturity structure of listed real estate companies in China, grasp the characteristics of the debt maturity structure of the listed real estate companies and the debt maturity period of the listed real estate companies. The transformation of time series is analyzed and the possible reasons are briefly explained: again, the factors that may affect the debt maturity structure of the real estate listed companies are analyzed and the research hypothesis is put forward, and the 2006-2010 year Real Estate Company listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market are selected as the research sample, and the non balanced panel measurement model is constructed. Empirical research and analysis are carried out on the influence factors of the term structure of the liabilities of the selected Sample Firms. The descriptive statistics and the construction of panel data multiple regression model are used to test the proposed theoretical hypothesis. The panel data model is selected as the best panel data model after the redundant fixed effect test and Houseman test. The results show that the eight factors of company size, growth opportunity, equity concentration, profitability, capital adequacy, liquidity, turnover capacity and asset maturity are negative to the real estate listed companies. The term structure of debt has a significant relationship, while the chairman's change has not been verified. Capital adequacy, asset maturity, liquidity, ownership concentration have a greater impact on debt maturity structure, company size, growth, turnover ability and profitability have little effect on debt maturity structure. Empirical results also confirm the agency cost theory, signal transmission The theory of recursion and term matching shows that these theories are equally applicable in explaining the debt maturity structure of the listed real estate companies in our country. Finally, this paper sums up the results of the empirical analysis, and then puts forward some policy suggestions on the existing problems of the debt maturity structure of the listed real estate companies in China, and divides the research inadequacies into some points. Analysis.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F299.233.4

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