本文選題：黃金價(jià)格 + 波動(dòng)因素　； 參考：《云南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：黃金自古以來(lái)就是財(cái)富的象征。自上世紀(jì)70年代“雙掛鉤”的布雷頓森林體系瓦解以來(lái),黃金價(jià)格波動(dòng)劇烈。黃金被越來(lái)越多的國(guó)際金商、各國(guó)央行和商業(yè)銀行、黃金ETF和個(gè)人投資者作為重要的資產(chǎn)組合之一。 黃金的商品、貨幣和金融的三重屬性決定了黃金價(jià)格波動(dòng)因素的多樣性與復(fù)雜性。本文在對(duì)黃金三重屬性的分析基礎(chǔ)上,分別從國(guó)際地緣政治、國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)、國(guó)際金融形勢(shì)和國(guó)際投資市場(chǎng)四個(gè)層面分析各因素對(duì)黃金價(jià)格的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)：(1)國(guó)際地緣政治出現(xiàn)不穩(wěn)定預(yù)期,黃金的貨幣非負(fù)債性和投資避險(xiǎn)屬性將會(huì)推動(dòng)金價(jià)上升。(2)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)不樂(lè)觀(guān)時(shí),美國(guó)物價(jià)和貨幣量出現(xiàn)大幅波動(dòng),黃金價(jià)格趨于上升。(3)美國(guó)金融形勢(shì)不穩(wěn)定時(shí),美元承壓,而以美元標(biāo)價(jià)的黃金價(jià)格則上漲。(4)國(guó)際投資市場(chǎng)中的資金分布,影響著黃金投資工具的價(jià)格。這四層因素層次分明而又相互影響。因此,個(gè)人投資者在分析黃金影響因素時(shí),要注意哪個(gè)層次的因素起主導(dǎo)作用。 在實(shí)證分析中,本文選取黃金價(jià)格作為被解釋變量,選取構(gòu)造的十國(guó)加權(quán)馬歇爾K值、美國(guó)失業(yè)率及美國(guó)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比增長(zhǎng)率來(lái)作為解釋變量。本文對(duì)各變量進(jìn)行平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、并對(duì)回歸加過(guò)的殘差進(jìn)行協(xié)整性檢驗(yàn),最后構(gòu)建VAR模型,從而得出各解釋變量能夠?qū)S金價(jià)格產(chǎn)生一定影響的結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:Gold has been a symbol of wealth since ancient times. Gold prices have fluctuated sharply since the collapse of the double-linked Bretton Woods system in the 1970s. Gold is being used by a growing number of international gold traders, central banks and commercial banks, gold ETF and individual investors as one of the important asset portfolios. The commodity, currency and finance of gold determine the diversity and complexity of gold price fluctuation factors. Based on the analysis of the triple attribute of gold, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of each factor to gold price from four aspects: international geopolitics, international economic situation, international financial situation and international investment market. This paper finds that: 1) International geopolitical instability is expected, and gold's currency non-debt and risk-averse nature will promote gold's rise. (2) when the US economic situation is not optimistic, US prices and currency volume fluctuate substantially. Gold prices tend to rise.) when U.S. financial conditions are unstable, the dollar comes under pressure, while dollar-denominated gold prices rise. 4) the distribution of funds in international investment markets affects the price of gold investment vehicles. These four layers of factors are clearly stratified and interact with each other. Therefore, individual investors should pay attention to which level of factors play a leading role in the analysis of gold influencing factors. In the empirical analysis, this paper selects gold price as explained variable, ten countries weighted Marshall K value, American unemployment rate and American consumer price index growth rate as explanatory variables. In this paper, the stability of each variable is tested, and the residual value added by regression is tested by cointegration test. Finally, the VAR model is constructed, and the conclusion is drawn that each explanatory variable can influence the gold price to a certain extent.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F831.54

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本文編號(hào)：1779329