本文選題：股票收益率 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率　； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：伴隨著我國(guó)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展完善,我國(guó)的股票市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷20多年的發(fā)展變化,初步具有了成熟的金融市場(chǎng)功能,取得了令中外矚目的成績(jī),股票得到了越來越多的投資者的青睞,因此股票成為一種被大眾普遍廣泛接受的投資品種,與此同時(shí),股票等金融資產(chǎn)的投資比例穩(wěn)步升高。近幾年,居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)連續(xù)走高引起了人們的高度關(guān)注,人們?cè)絹碓疥P(guān)注股票等金融資產(chǎn)能否具有這種抵御通貨膨脹引起的資產(chǎn)貶值風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力。衡量現(xiàn)代市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)健康運(yùn)行與否的兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)分別是通貨膨脹率、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率,兩者間存在著一定的影響關(guān)系,特別是實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)中通脹水平對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)體的影響作用尤為突出,與此同時(shí),股票市場(chǎng)規(guī)模以及價(jià)格的波動(dòng)狀況對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的各個(gè)方面產(chǎn)生了深遠(yuǎn)的影響,股票價(jià)格波動(dòng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)兩者間存在一定的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系。在現(xiàn)實(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)生活中,對(duì)這三個(gè)因素之間的關(guān)系研究具有一定的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)實(shí)意義和指導(dǎo)價(jià)值。 本文首先介紹分析國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)于三者間關(guān)系的相關(guān)理論研究,借鑒相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上,聯(lián)系我國(guó)的實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)情況,對(duì)于三者存在的實(shí)際關(guān)系進(jìn)行探討和實(shí)證研究分析。在選取數(shù)據(jù)時(shí),盡量選取在現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況下具有代表性、時(shí)效性、真實(shí)性的年度和月度數(shù)據(jù),選擇向量自回歸模型、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解等經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量研究方法,對(duì)三者間的相互關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)研究,得出較為真實(shí)可靠的結(jié)論：(1)股票收益率和通貨膨脹率這兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量間的影響作用比較明顯,并且具有正向的變動(dòng)關(guān)系。(2)股票收益率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率兩者間的關(guān)系不是很明顯,相互之間的影響作用很小。(3)當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)市場(chǎng)下,股票收益率、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率以及通貨膨脹率這三個(gè)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量指標(biāo)最主要是受到自身因素的干擾變化,其他兩個(gè)要素指標(biāo)對(duì)其的影響程度很小。
[Abstract]:With the development and perfection of market economy in our country, the stock market of our country has experienced more than 20 years of development and changes, and has initially possessed the function of mature financial market, and has made remarkable achievements both at home and abroad, and the stock market has been favored by more and more investors.As a result, stocks have become a widely accepted investment variety, while the proportion of financial assets such as stocks has steadily increased.In recent years, people pay more and more attention to the rising of consumer price index, and people pay more and more attention to whether the financial assets such as stocks can resist the risk of asset depreciation caused by inflation.The two economic indicators that measure the healthy operation of the modern market economy are the inflation rate and the economic growth rate, respectively.In particular, inflation in the real economy has a prominent impact on the real economy. At the same time, the scale of the stock market and the fluctuation of prices have a profound impact on all aspects of our economy.There is a certain correlation between stock price fluctuation and economic growth.In real economic life, the study of the relationship between these three factors has certain economic practical significance and guiding value.This paper first introduces and analyzes the domestic and foreign scholars' relevant theoretical research on the relationship between the three, draw lessons from the relevant economic theory research, and contact the actual economic situation of our country.The actual relationship between the three is discussed and analyzed empirically.When selecting the data, we should choose the representative, timely and authentic annual and monthly data, choose the vector autoregressive model, cointegration test, impulse response and variance decomposition, and other econometric research methods, such as vector autoregressive model, cointegration test, impulse response and variance decomposition, etc.An empirical study of the relationship between the three is carried out, and a more reliable conclusion is drawn: (1) the impact of the two economic variables, the stock yield and inflation rate, is obvious.And the relationship between the stock yield and the economic growth rate is not very obvious, and the influence between the stock yield and the economic growth rate is very small. 3) under the current economic market, the stock return rate,Economic growth rate and inflation rate, the three macroeconomic variables, are mainly influenced by their own factors, but the other two factors have little influence on them.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F822.0;F124.1;F224

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