發(fā)布時間：2018-04-03 00:11

  本文選題：地產(chǎn)酒店　切入點：財務評價　出處：《華南理工大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：MJ地產(chǎn)酒店項目是一個結合房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)與酒店營運的綜合性項目，本文將對此項目進行財務評價。佛山市三水HS房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展有限公司（以下簡稱“HS公司”），是一家享有地區(qū)本土優(yōu)勢的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)公司，近年在房地產(chǎn)領域累積到一定的經(jīng)驗和資金。為了避免房地產(chǎn)市場未來增長放緩讓企業(yè)陷于被動，HS公司擬投資開發(fā)并經(jīng)營MJ地產(chǎn)酒店項目，尋求跨行業(yè)的轉型突破機會。 HS公司計劃按兩個階段實施該項目：第一階段，2013年全年為項目建設期，借助HS公司在房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)領域的優(yōu)勢，在已有土地使用權的前提下，，完成MJ地產(chǎn)酒店的建筑工程建設、設備購置及裝配，為酒店的經(jīng)營做好硬件和軟件準備；第二階段，2014年至2023年（共10年）為項目首個經(jīng)營周期，通過科學合理的酒店經(jīng)營，為項目投資者HS公司帶來長期的營業(yè)收入，并且在項目經(jīng)營周期結束時出售酒店項目，估算項目出售收入。 因此，MJ地產(chǎn)酒店項目不同于一般的房地產(chǎn)投資項目，也不同于一般的酒店營運項目，它包含房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)的投資與價值估算，也包含酒店經(jīng)營周期的長期現(xiàn)金流估算。那么，如何科學地對此項目進行財務評價，分析影響投資收益的敏感因素，制定風險對策，為HS公司提供決策支持，正是本文需要解決的問題。 本文首先對MJ地產(chǎn)酒店項目行業(yè)環(huán)境和項目概況進行分析，確定項目的定位與規(guī)劃；并且通過資料查找、專家訪談和實地考察，搜集財務評價需要的數(shù)據(jù)和依據(jù)；利用各項數(shù)據(jù)和依據(jù)計算項目建設期和營運期的現(xiàn)金流；然后本文運用行為資本資產(chǎn)定價模型（BAPM）估算MJ地產(chǎn)酒店的資本成本為9.87%，進而計算得出項目凈現(xiàn)值為873萬元、內(nèi)部報酬率為12.48%。接著，考慮影響項目財務評價指標的因素，運用單因素敏感性分析法找出敏感性因素，結合這些因素的變動性，運用多因素敏感性分析法識別風險的影響程度；最后，針對各個風險因素進行分析并制定風險對策，最終得到項目財務可行的判斷。 由于房地產(chǎn)酒店項目投資與營運的綜合性和不確定性，本文運用行為資本資產(chǎn)定價模型、估測現(xiàn)金流直接法、單因素和多因素敏感性分析法等理論對MJ地產(chǎn)酒店進行財務評價，希望為HS公司對項目的開發(fā)和營運決策提供參考。
[Abstract]:MJ Real Estate Hotel Project is a comprehensive project combining real estate development with hotel operation.Foshan Sanshui HS Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "HS Company") is a real estate development company with local advantages. In recent years, it has accumulated certain experience and funds in the field of real estate.To avoid a future slowdown in the real estate market, HS intends to invest in the development and operation of MJ real estate hotels, seeking opportunities for cross-industry transformation breakthroughs.HS plans to implement the project in two stages: the first stage, the whole year of 2013 as the project construction period, with the help of HS's advantages in the field of real estate development, under the premise of the existing land use right, the construction of MJ real estate hotel will be completed.Equipment acquisition and assembly to prepare for the management of the hotel hardware and software; the second stage, 2014 to 2023 (a total of 10 years) as the first business cycle of the project, through a scientific and reasonable hotel operation,Generate long-term operating income for the project investor HS, and sell the hotel project at the end of the project cycle, and estimate the project sale income.Therefore, the MJ real estate hotel project is different from the general real estate investment project and the general hotel operation project. It includes the investment and value estimation of the real estate development, and the long-term cash flow estimation of the hotel operation cycle.Therefore, how to scientifically evaluate the project, analyze the sensitive factors that affect the investment return, formulate the risk countermeasures, and provide decision support for HS Company is the problem to be solved in this paper.Firstly, this paper analyzes the industry environment and project situation of MJ real estate hotel project, determines the location and planning of the project, and collects the data and basis of the financial evaluation needs through data searching, expert interview and field investigation.Using the data and basis to calculate the cash flow during the construction and operation period of the project, and then using the behavioral capital asset pricing model (BAPM) to estimate the capital cost of the MJ real estate hotel is 9.87, and then calculate the net present value of the project is 8.73 million yuan.The internal rate of return is 12.48%.Then, considering the factors that affect the financial evaluation index of the project, using the single factor sensitivity analysis method to find out the sensitivity factors, combining the variability of these factors, using the multi-factor sensitivity analysis method to identify the impact degree of the risk; finally,Analyze each risk factor and draw up the risk countermeasure, finally get the project finance feasible judgment.Because of the comprehensive and uncertainty of investment and operation of real estate hotel project, this paper uses the behavioral capital asset pricing model, direct method of estimating cash flow, single factor and multi-factor sensitivity analysis to evaluate the finance of MJ real estate hotel.Hope to provide a reference for HS company to the project development and operation decisions.
【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.233.4

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