發(fā)布時間：2018-03-16 05:09

  本文選題：投資價值　切入點：行業(yè)分析　出處：《山東大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國的證券市場雖然得到了長足發(fā)展,但依然未能擺脫非成熟市場所固有的弊端,價值投資理念淡薄、投機氣氛濃厚、概念跟風炒作盛行等問題依舊存在。其中一個重要原因就是我國證券投資市場投資主體結(jié)構(gòu)不合理,中小散戶占比過大。中小散戶往往不注重對標的公司基本面的分析,不注重對標的公司內(nèi)在價值的分析,盲信盲從,追漲殺跌。 本文以水電行業(yè)中的長江電力股份有限公司為例,探索如何對公司基本面進行分析,如何對公司內(nèi)在價值進行評估。首先結(jié)合我國經(jīng)濟和能源發(fā)展的概況對水電行業(yè)的發(fā)展前景進行了論述,然后對長江電力公司的基本情況和競爭優(yōu)勢進行詳盡分析,最后在對長江電力財務(wù)狀況進行分析和預測的基礎(chǔ)上,運用市盈率(PE)法、市凈率(PB)法和均值估價法分別對長江電力的投資價值進行了計算。得出的結(jié)論是,水電行業(yè)是成長性良好的行業(yè),長江電力公司當前價值偏低,極具長期投資價值。 本文的創(chuàng)新點在于在分析常用價值評估方法的基礎(chǔ)上,揚長避短,首次提出了均值估價法的估值模型。均值估價法以市凈率法為基礎(chǔ),繼承了其簡單易懂、便于操作的優(yōu)點,同時更注重對資產(chǎn)的持續(xù)盈利能力的評估；其借鑒經(jīng)濟增加值法,引入了“預期收益率”概念,強化資本的時間價值,但同時盡力避免過于復雜的計算過程；同時又借鑒貼現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流量法的優(yōu)點,注重對公司未來價值影響因素的分析,在對公司未來現(xiàn)金流和現(xiàn)金分紅能力考量的同時,巧妙采取均值計算的方法來避免預測的復雜性、盡量保證預測的準確性。均值估價法是基于廣大中小散戶知識水平參差不齊、時間精力有限的特點,所提出的一種較為通俗易懂的公司價值評估方法,希望能對引導散戶養(yǎng)成理性投資和價值投資的投資習慣、提高投資水平有所幫助。
[Abstract]:In recent years, although the securities market of our country has made great progress, it still can not get rid of the defects inherent in the immature market, the concept of value investment is weak, and the atmosphere of speculation is strong. One of the important reasons is that the structure of the investment main body in China's securities investment market is unreasonable, the proportion of small and medium-sized retail investors is too large, and small and medium-sized retail investors often do not pay attention to the analysis of the fundamental aspects of the underlying companies. Do not pay attention to the underlying value of the company analysis, blind faith blindly follow, chasing rise and fall. Taking Changjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd in hydropower industry as an example, this paper explores how to analyze the fundamentals of the company. How to evaluate the intrinsic value of the company. Firstly, the development prospect of hydropower industry is discussed in combination with the general situation of economic and energy development in China, and then the basic situation and competitive advantage of the Yangtze Electric Power Company are analyzed in detail. Finally, on the basis of analyzing and forecasting the financial situation of Changjiang Electric Power, the paper calculates the investment value of Changjiang Electric Power by using the method of P / E ratio (P / E), P / E ratio (P / B) and mean value respectively. Hydropower industry is a good growth industry, the current value of Yangtze River Power Company is low, and has very long-term investment value. The innovation of this paper is that on the basis of analyzing the common valuation methods, the author puts forward the valuation model of the mean valuation method for the first time, which is based on the price-to-book ratio method and inherits its advantages of being simple and easy to understand and easy to operate. At the same time, it pays more attention to the evaluation of the sustainable profitability of assets, which uses the economic added value method for reference, introduces the concept of "expected rate of return", strengthens the time value of capital, but tries to avoid the too complicated calculation process at the same time. At the same time, we draw lessons from the advantages of discounted cash flow method, pay attention to the analysis of the influencing factors of the company's future value, and at the same time, skillfully adopt the method of average value calculation to avoid the complexity of prediction while considering the company's future cash flow and cash dividend ability. To ensure the accuracy of the prediction, the mean value evaluation method is based on the wide range of small and medium-sized retail investors' knowledge level is uneven, limited time and energy, the proposed a relatively easy to understand the company value evaluation method, Hope to guide retail investors to develop rational investment and value investment habits, improve the level of investment.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F426.61;F832.51

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