本文選題：金融市場　切入點：預(yù)測　出處：《上海金融》2014年10期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：正十年以前,我曾經(jīng)編過一副對聯(lián),上聯(lián)是:解釋過去頭頭是道,似乎有理;下聯(lián)是:預(yù)測未來躲躲閃閃,誤差驚人;橫批是經(jīng)濟(jì)分析。這當(dāng)然是調(diào)侃,但也不全是杜撰。當(dāng)今的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論在方法上日臻精巧,在思想上直指本性,研究對象包羅很廣,數(shù)據(jù)處理相當(dāng)復(fù)雜,常常給人以深刻的震撼和啟迪,這是沒有疑義的。但與自然科學(xué)和工程領(lǐng)域在預(yù)測和操控方面的巨大成就相比,經(jīng)濟(jì)分析面對未來提供卓越的預(yù)見性和前瞻性預(yù)測的能力仍然比較遜色,這應(yīng)該也是很清楚的。
[Abstract]:Ten years ago, I have compiled a pair of antithetical couplet, the alliance: explain the past seems to be rational; the second line is closely reasoned and well argued, predict the future: avoid being seen, error alarming; the streamer is economic analysis. This course is fun, but it's not fiction. Today's economic theory in the method is compact, in thought at the nature of the research object covers a very wide, data processing is very complex, often gives a profound shock and enlightenment, this is no doubt. But compared with the natural science and engineering achievements in prediction and control, economic analysis in the future provide excellent foresight and forward-looking forecast is still relatively inferior, this should also be very clear.

【作者單位】： 安信證券股份有限公司;
【分類號】：F832.5
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本文編號：1558628