發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-01 17:41

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 住宅價(jià)格 財(cái)富效應(yīng) 成本效應(yīng) 需求 供給 消費(fèi)　出處：《山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著住房體制改革的深入，住宅價(jià)格對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響越來(lái)越顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)，其中住宅價(jià)格對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響不但關(guān)系到居民生活及企業(yè)生產(chǎn)，同時(shí)也關(guān)系著我國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式的大計(jì)方針。在我國(guó)，住宅價(jià)格是否具有成本效應(yīng)及財(cái)富效應(yīng)？其對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響程度如何？我國(guó)住宅價(jià)格宏觀調(diào)控措施該走向何方？這些都是關(guān)系國(guó)計(jì)民生的問(wèn)題。本文通過(guò)對(duì)我國(guó)及35個(gè)大中城市的相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建時(shí)間序列模型及面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，對(duì)我國(guó)住宅價(jià)格財(cái)富效應(yīng)及成本效應(yīng)進(jìn)行定量研究。主要結(jié)論如下：首先，我國(guó)住宅價(jià)格具有正的財(cái)富效應(yīng)，且各大中城市的水平高于全國(guó)平均水平，而無(wú)論是全國(guó)水平還是各大中城市，住宅價(jià)格財(cái)富效應(yīng)要高于股票市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)。其次，我國(guó)住宅價(jià)格的上漲會(huì)增加居民居住成本，，進(jìn)而影響居民生活成本，對(duì)消費(fèi)需求產(chǎn)生影響，且不同地區(qū)人均實(shí)際居住支出存在較大差異，使得各地區(qū)對(duì)消費(fèi)的需求各不相同。再次，我國(guó)住宅價(jià)格的上漲會(huì)增加企業(yè)成本，房?jī)r(jià)越高的城市，職工對(duì)于工資水平的要求也越高，企業(yè)面臨的勞動(dòng)力成本也越大，可變成本上升，最終導(dǎo)致商品供給的波動(dòng)。最后，對(duì)各大中城市進(jìn)行因子分析后得出，影響住宅價(jià)格成本效應(yīng)的主要因子有成本因子及比重因子；聚類分析后得出，我國(guó)35個(gè)大中城市中北京、上海及深圳的住宅價(jià)格對(duì)居民和企業(yè)帶來(lái)的壓力最大，其供需關(guān)系存在較大矛盾，導(dǎo)致商品價(jià)格及產(chǎn)量的變化。在實(shí)證研究中，以我國(guó)大中城市數(shù)據(jù)作為基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)，利用相關(guān)性分析、回歸分析、因子分析、聚類分析等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析技術(shù)進(jìn)行定量研究，同時(shí)輔之以必要的定性分析支持和解釋。 本文共分六章,第一章為緒論部分,對(duì)文章的研究背景、研究目的與意義、研究方法、創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)及住宅價(jià)格的定義做了概括性闡述。第二章是國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)綜述部分，對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)住宅價(jià)格財(cái)富效應(yīng)及成本效應(yīng)的研究成果進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)闡述，并提出觀點(diǎn)。第三章通過(guò)建立時(shí)間序列模型及面板數(shù)據(jù)模型對(duì)我國(guó)住宅價(jià)格及消費(fèi)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了回歸分析，實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了我國(guó)住宅價(jià)格的財(cái)富效應(yīng)。第四章通過(guò)建立面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，分析了住宅價(jià)格與居民居住成本、職工工資之間的關(guān)系，驗(yàn)證了我國(guó)住宅價(jià)格具有成本效應(yīng)，并對(duì)35個(gè)大中城市的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了因子分析及聚類分析，最后通過(guò)定量分析的結(jié)果研究了我國(guó)消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)的供需矛盾。第五章對(duì)本文研究的結(jié)論進(jìn)行了總結(jié)并提出進(jìn)一步的研究工作結(jié)論部分。第六章根據(jù)研究結(jié)論提出了相關(guān)對(duì)策建議，認(rèn)為我國(guó)應(yīng)當(dāng)充分利用市場(chǎng)機(jī)制調(diào)節(jié)住宅價(jià)格，保障住房剛性需求者的需求，同時(shí)完善房地產(chǎn)二手市場(chǎng)及租賃市場(chǎng)，大力推進(jìn)廉租房建設(shè)，完善房地產(chǎn)稅收制度，充分發(fā)揮正的財(cái)富效應(yīng)，減弱成本效應(yīng)，雙管齊下，促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)及宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the housing system reform, the impact of housing prices on the macro economy is becoming more and more obvious, and the impact of housing prices on consumption is not only related to the lives of residents and the production of enterprises. At the same time, it is also related to the policy of changing the mode of economic growth. In our country, whether the housing price has the effect of cost and wealth? What is its impact on consumption? Where should China's housing price macro-control measures go? These problems are related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. This paper constructs time series model and panel data model based on the relevant basic data of China and 35 large and medium-sized cities. The main conclusions are as follows: firstly, the housing price in China has a positive wealth effect, and the level of large and medium-sized cities is higher than the national average. The wealth effect of housing price is higher than the wealth effect brought by the stock market. Secondly, the rising housing price in our country will increase the resident's living cost and then affect the resident's living cost. It has an impact on consumer demand, and there are great differences in the actual living expenditure per capita in different regions, which makes the demand for consumption different in different regions. Thirdly, the rising of housing prices in our country will increase the cost of enterprises, the higher the housing prices, the higher the prices of cities. The higher the staff and workers' demand for wage levels, the greater the labor costs faced by enterprises, and the higher the variable costs, which ultimately lead to fluctuations in the supply of commodities. Finally, after factor analysis of major and medium-sized cities, it is concluded that, The main factors influencing the cost effect of housing price are cost factor and specific gravity factor. After cluster analysis, it is concluded that housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China bring the greatest pressure to residents and enterprises. The contradiction between supply and demand leads to the change of commodity price and output. In the empirical study, using the data of large and medium cities as the basic data, using correlation analysis, regression analysis, factor analysis, Cluster analysis and other econometric analysis techniques carry out quantitative research, supplemented by necessary qualitative analysis to support and explain. This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter is the introduction part, the research background, research purpose and significance, research methods, innovation points and the definition of housing price are summarized. The second chapter is the domestic and foreign literature review part. The research results of wealth effect and cost effect of housing price at home and abroad are expounded in detail. The third chapter analyzes the relationship between housing price and consumption by establishing time series model and panel data model. Chapter 4th analyzes the relationship between housing price and residents' living cost and employee's wages by building panel data model, and verifies that housing price has cost effect in China. The data of 35 large and medium cities were analyzed by factor analysis and cluster analysis. Chapter 5th summarizes the conclusion of this paper and puts forward the conclusion of further research. Chapter 6th is based on the conclusion of the research. Put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions, We should make full use of the market mechanism to adjust the housing price, protect the demand of the rigid demand of housing, perfect the second-hand market and lease market of the real estate, vigorously promote the construction of low-rent housing and perfect the tax system of the real estate. We should give full play to the positive wealth effect, weaken the cost effect, and promote the sustainable development of the real estate industry and the macro economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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