本文關(guān)鍵詞： 價(jià)值評(píng)估 權(quán)益現(xiàn)金流 市盈率 市凈率 競爭力　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2011年底,我國16家上市銀行總市值占滬深兩市總市值的1／3,可見銀行板塊是大盤的權(quán)重板塊。四大國有商業(yè)銀行作為我國金融改革和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的中堅(jiān)力量,其股本占據(jù)我國A股市場前四名的座位,但其資本市場表現(xiàn)卻是不如具有相同會(huì)計(jì)指標(biāo)的其他行業(yè)的上市公司。農(nóng)業(yè)銀行是四大國有商業(yè)銀行中最后上市的一家,股價(jià)是四大行中最低的,以其為代表探究其內(nèi)在價(jià)值對(duì)于發(fā)現(xiàn)銀行股是否處于合理價(jià)位具有一定的意義。另外,通過競爭力評(píng)級(jí)體系對(duì)對(duì)四大銀行的綜合競爭力進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,這為農(nóng)業(yè)銀行提升其股權(quán)價(jià)值以縮小與兄弟行之間的差距也具有一定的借鑒意義。 本文總體上分為兩個(gè)部分。第一部分主要對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)銀行的股權(quán)價(jià)值作詳細(xì)的預(yù)測估算；第二部分主要探究四大國有商業(yè)銀行綜合競爭力差距所在根源,從而提出提升農(nóng)業(yè)銀行股權(quán)價(jià)值之策略。 第一部分通過對(duì)企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估經(jīng)典理論和目前常用評(píng)估方法的回顧,針對(duì)商業(yè)銀行特點(diǎn),選取了權(quán)益現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)模型作為我國農(nóng)業(yè)銀行的主要估值方法,對(duì)影響估值模型的各參數(shù)進(jìn)行了逐個(gè)估算,最終得到其理論價(jià)值,并以乘數(shù)法模型中的市盈率和市凈率法加以輔助驗(yàn)證。經(jīng)預(yù)測,權(quán)益現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)法估算出2011年末農(nóng)業(yè)銀行的每股價(jià)值為3.19元,市盈率法計(jì)算出的每股價(jià)值為2.58元,市凈率法計(jì)算出的每股價(jià)值為2.72元。鑒于各種方法的優(yōu)劣點(diǎn),從而得出結(jié)論：農(nóng)業(yè)銀行的市場股價(jià)被低估的,由此也可以反映出我國銀行股的價(jià)格是被低估的。 第二部分首先從企業(yè)競爭力與企業(yè)價(jià)值的相關(guān)關(guān)系入手,然后主要通過CAMEL評(píng)級(jí)體系對(duì)四大銀行的綜合競爭力進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,并對(duì)各指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了賦值以計(jì)算四大國有商業(yè)銀行五個(gè)指標(biāo)排名及綜合排名,分析發(fā)現(xiàn)中國農(nóng)業(yè)銀行在資本實(shí)力、資產(chǎn)管理、管理能力及盈利水平方面均不如另三家國有商業(yè)銀行,進(jìn)而提出從這四個(gè)方面提升其股權(quán)價(jià)值的政策建議,即充實(shí)資本實(shí)力并加強(qiáng)資產(chǎn)管理以實(shí)現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健經(jīng)營,深化人力資產(chǎn)改革以提高經(jīng)營管理能力,明確市場定位并大力發(fā)展中間業(yè)務(wù)以提高盈利能力。
[Abstract]:In end of 2011, market value, the general manager of 16 listed banks in China, accounted for a third of the total market value in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. It can be seen that the banking sector is the weight plate of the market. The four major state-owned commercial banks are the backbone of China's financial reform and economic development. Its share capital occupies the top four seats in China's A-share market, but its capital market performance is not as good as that of listed companies in other industries with the same accounting indicators. The Agricultural Bank of China is the last of the four state-owned commercial banks to list on the market. The stock price is the lowest among the four banks. It is of certain significance to find out whether the bank shares are at a reasonable price or not. In addition, through the competitive rating system, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the comprehensive competitiveness of the four major banks. This also has certain reference significance for Agricultural Bank to enhance its equity value to narrow the gap between the bank and its brothers. This paper is divided into two parts as a whole. The first part mainly estimates the equity value of the Agricultural Bank in detail; the second part mainly explores the root causes of the gap between the four state-owned commercial banks' comprehensive competitiveness. Thus, the paper puts forward the strategy of improving the equity value of Agricultural Bank. In the first part, according to the characteristics of commercial banks, the discounted cash flow model is selected as the main valuation method of Agricultural Bank of China. The parameters affecting the valuation model are estimated one by one, and the theoretical value is finally obtained. The method of price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio in the multiplier method is used to verify the model. In end of 2011, the discounted cash flow of equity method estimated the value per share of Agricultural Bank of China was 3.19 yuan, the value per share calculated by the price-to-earnings ratio method was 2.58 yuan, and the value per share calculated by the price-to-book ratio method was 2.72 yuan. In view of the advantages and disadvantages of the various methods, The conclusion is that the stock price of Agricultural Bank of China is undervalued, which also reflects that the price of China's bank stock is undervalued. The second part begins with the relationship between the competitiveness of enterprises and the value of enterprises, and then compares and analyzes the comprehensive competitiveness of the four major banks through the CAMEL rating system. And the index was assigned to calculate the four state-owned commercial banks five index rankings and comprehensive ranking, analysis found that the agricultural bank of China in capital strength, asset management, The management ability and profit level of the other three state-owned commercial banks are inferior to those of the other three state-owned commercial banks, and then put forward some policy suggestions to enhance their equity value from these four aspects, that is, to enrich capital strength and strengthen asset management to achieve sound management. Deepen the reform of human assets to improve the management ability, clear the market position and vigorously develop intermediary business to improve profitability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.33;F832.51

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