本文關(guān)鍵詞： 大型商業(yè)地產(chǎn) 等級全息模型(HHM) 風(fēng)險評估 灰色系統(tǒng) 世界城 光谷步行街　出處：《西安建筑科技大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近幾年來，在我國政府對住宅地產(chǎn)宏觀調(diào)控力度不斷加大的背景下，開發(fā)商從住宅中獲取超額利潤的難度日益增大。商業(yè)地產(chǎn)因其豐厚的利潤空間逐漸成為房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商的一個新的投資熱點，然而作為一個融合地產(chǎn)開發(fā)和商業(yè)經(jīng)營的復(fù)合型地產(chǎn)形態(tài)，國內(nèi)投資者普遍缺乏一套較為成熟的商業(yè)地產(chǎn)運營模式，盲目投資帶來了很大的風(fēng)險。對于投資規(guī)模超過7萬平方米的大型商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項目開發(fā)而言，一個項目的成敗有時甚至決定了一個企業(yè)的命運和市場生存能力，，加強項目投資風(fēng)險管理工作提高項目的成功率迫在眉睫。 本文順應(yīng)大型商業(yè)地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險管理的需要，展開了對其投資風(fēng)險識別和評價方法的研究。首先著重歸納了大型商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資與普通住宅的不同特征，結(jié)合案例分析了“產(chǎn)權(quán)出售”、“租售結(jié)合”、“只租不售”三種投資模式的特點和應(yīng)用前景。其次采用等級全息模型法（HHM）從多個方位和視角構(gòu)建風(fēng)險識別的HHM框架，比較系統(tǒng)和全面的識別了大型商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的投資風(fēng)險，并依據(jù)風(fēng)險評估指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建的6大原則，結(jié)合案例分析、調(diào)查問卷、頻數(shù)統(tǒng)計、德爾菲法等多種方法構(gòu)建了大型商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險評估指標(biāo)體系。同時將灰色系統(tǒng)理論引入到大型商業(yè)地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險評估中，與層次分析法相結(jié)合構(gòu)建了大型商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險的灰色綜合評估模型。該方法能有效彌補商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險分析中常見的樣本缺失和數(shù)據(jù)不全等弊端，是一種簡單適用、可操作性強的評估方法。最后本文選擇具有代表性的武漢世界城·光谷步行街項目收集到的樣本數(shù)據(jù)，通過風(fēng)險分析和計算，論證了灰色綜合評估模型的可靠性和有效性。 本文的研究成果對企業(yè)投資大型商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的前期決策和運營管理具有很好的實際意義，也期待能為商業(yè)地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展盡微薄之力。
[Abstract]:In recent years, under the background of the government's increasing macro-control of residential real estate, It is increasingly difficult for developers to obtain excess profits from housing. Commercial real estate is becoming a new investment hot spot for real estate developers because of its huge profit margins. However, as a combination of real estate development and commercial management, domestic investors generally lack a more mature commercial real estate operation model. Blind investment brings great risks. For the development of large commercial real estate projects with a scale of more than 70,000 square meters, the success or failure of a project sometimes even determines the fate of an enterprise and the viability of the market. It is urgent to strengthen the project investment risk management to improve the success rate of the project. According to the needs of risk management of large-scale commercial real estate, this paper studies the methods of investment risk identification and evaluation. Firstly, it summarizes the different characteristics of large-scale commercial real estate investment and ordinary housing. This paper analyzes the characteristics and application prospects of the three investment modes of "property right sale", "rent-sale combination" and "only rent and no sale". Secondly, the hierarchical holographic model method is used to construct the HHM framework for risk identification from multiple directions and perspectives. It systematically and comprehensively identifies the investment risk of large-scale commercial real estate, and according to the six principles of risk assessment index system, combining case analysis, questionnaire, frequency statistics, Several methods, such as Delphi method, are used to construct the risk assessment index system of large-scale commercial real estate investment, and the grey system theory is introduced into the risk assessment of large-scale commercial real estate. Combined with the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the grey comprehensive evaluation model of the investment risk of large-scale commercial real estate is constructed. This method can effectively remedy the defects of sample missing and incomplete data in the risk analysis of commercial real estate investment, which is a simple and applicable method. Finally, this paper selects the sample data collected by the representative project of Wuhan World City 路Guanggu pedestrian Street, and proves the reliability and effectiveness of the grey comprehensive evaluation model through risk analysis and calculation. The research results of this paper have a good practical significance for enterprises to invest in large-scale commercial real estate decision-making and operation management, but also expect to contribute to the healthy development of commercial real estate industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F224

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