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  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 證券市場 復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò) 情緒傳播 SIRS模型 ISR模型　出處：《上海大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：目前對證券市場投資者情緒的研究主要集中在投資者情緒指標(biāo)和投資者情緒本身對投資者決策以及股票收益的影響，關(guān)于投資者情緒傳播機(jī)制的研究相對不多，且已有研究集中于羊群行為的理論解釋和實(shí)證研究，多使用元胞自動機(jī)理論。本文利用復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論，將SIRS傳染病模型和謠言傳播ISR模型引入證券市場投資者情緒傳播研究機(jī)制，將證券市場投資者情緒分為積極和消極兩類，投資者狀態(tài)分為情緒易感者、情緒傳播者和情緒免疫者三類，建立了證券市場投資者狀態(tài)變化ISR模型和投資者情緒變化模型，并將兩種模型有機(jī)的結(jié)合起來，形成了完整的證券市場投資者情緒傳播模型。在對投資者情緒傳播模型進(jìn)行數(shù)值模擬的過程中，本文將證券市場投資者狀態(tài)變化和投資者情緒變化結(jié)合起來，使得投資者狀態(tài)變化獨(dú)立于情緒變化，而投資者情緒變化依賴于投資者的狀態(tài)，，并且投資者情緒傳播依賴于市場整體投資氣氛和鄰居情緒傳播者數(shù)量，反映了現(xiàn)實(shí)實(shí)際。數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果反映了證券市場存在明顯的“追漲殺跌”投資現(xiàn)象，投資者情緒傳播與市場理性程度存在明顯的相關(guān)關(guān)系，而證券市場規(guī)模、鄰居投資者數(shù)量以及投資者受鄰居投資者影響發(fā)生情緒變化的概率對投資者情緒傳播速度均沒有顯著影響。
[Abstract]:At present, the research on investor sentiment in the securities market is mainly focused on the impact of investor sentiment index and investor sentiment itself on investors' decision-making and stock returns, but there are relatively few studies on the mechanism of investor sentiment transmission. And the previous studies have focused on the theoretical explanation and empirical research of herding behavior, mostly using cellular automata theory. In this paper, the complex network theory is used. The SIRS infectious disease model and the rumor spread ISR model are introduced into the research mechanism of investor sentiment communication in the securities market. The investor sentiment in the securities market is divided into two categories: positive and negative. Investor state is divided into three categories: emotional susceptible person, emotional communicator and emotional immune person. The ISR model of investor state change and investor mood change model are established in the stock market. The two models are combined organically to form a complete model of investor sentiment propagation in the securities market. In the process of numerical simulation of investor sentiment propagation model. This paper combines the change of investor's state with the change of investor's emotion, which makes the change of investor's state independent of the change of emotion, and the change of investor's emotion depends on the investor's state. The spread of investor sentiment depends on the overall investment atmosphere of the market and the number of neighbor emotional communicators, which reflects the reality. The numerical simulation results show that there is an obvious phenomenon of "chasing after rising and killing falling" investment in the stock market. There is a significant correlation between investor sentiment dissemination and market rationality, and the scale of the securities market. Neither the number of neighbor investors nor the probability of emotional changes influenced by neighbor investors have any significant effect on the speed of investor sentiment propagation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F830.91;O157.5

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