本文關(guān)鍵詞： 城市化 住房市場(chǎng) 現(xiàn)狀分析 趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：城市化是指農(nóng)業(yè)人口轉(zhuǎn)化為城市人口、農(nóng)村地域轉(zhuǎn)化為城市地域、農(nóng)業(yè)活動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)化為非農(nóng)業(yè)活動(dòng)的過(guò)程。隨著我國(guó)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)水平的發(fā)展提高,農(nóng)村人口逐漸向城市地區(qū)遷移,農(nóng)村人口的地區(qū)遷移使得城鎮(zhèn)人口在總?cè)丝谥兴急戎夭粩嘣黾�。一方面住房作為居民衣食住行四大基本需求之�?城鎮(zhèn)人口的增加勢(shì)必會(huì)對(duì)住房需求與住房?jī)r(jià)格產(chǎn)生正向影響,因此城市化水平的提高也將給城鎮(zhèn)住房市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)廣闊的發(fā)展空間。另一方面隨著城市化進(jìn)程的發(fā)展,城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、資源承載能力、醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生交通等等都將成為社會(huì)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)問(wèn)題,城市化水平的提高對(duì)城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展提出了更高的要求。 地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的不平衡以及城鄉(xiāng)區(qū)域發(fā)展的差異使得農(nóng)村人口向城市地區(qū)遷移,城市人口數(shù)量逐年增加。城市人口的增多加大了對(duì)住房的需求,也推高了城市房?jī)r(jià),因此本文將關(guān)注點(diǎn)放在城市化水平與城市住房市場(chǎng)。文章內(nèi)容在于分析我國(guó)城市化水平的發(fā)展變化,在城市化過(guò)程中所表現(xiàn)出的特點(diǎn)及存在的問(wèn)題,探討城市化水平與城市住房市場(chǎng)的影響關(guān)系,并對(duì)城市化水平的發(fā)展以及住房市場(chǎng)的變化進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)分析。由于住房市場(chǎng)可以分為住房?jī)r(jià)格與住房需求兩個(gè)屬性,因此文章對(duì)住房市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)進(jìn)行闡述時(shí),從住房銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格與住房銷(xiāo)售量?jī)蓚�(gè)方面入手。 首先本文從相關(guān)理論分析城市化水平發(fā)展對(duì)住房市場(chǎng)的影響,探討其影響機(jī)制。其次分析我國(guó)整體目前城市化水平發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀以及存在的問(wèn)題,剖析住房市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)狀以及變化。在實(shí)證分析方面,選取1998—2011年我國(guó)23個(gè)省、市、自治區(qū)面板數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)城市化水平與住房銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格、住房銷(xiāo)售量進(jìn)行變系數(shù)面板模型估計(jì),此外還探討住房市場(chǎng)對(duì)城市化發(fā)展的正反兩個(gè)方面的影響。再次利用第五次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)與第六次人口普查數(shù)據(jù),根據(jù)城鄉(xiāng)增長(zhǎng)差異率預(yù)測(cè)今后我國(guó)整體及各地區(qū)城市化水平的變化,并利用城市化水平預(yù)測(cè)值對(duì)住房銷(xiāo)售量與住房銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。最后根據(jù)本文研究?jī)?nèi)容與研究結(jié)論提出相關(guān)政策建議。 本文研究結(jié)果表明目前我國(guó)整體城市化水平發(fā)展處于城市化發(fā)展三階段模型中的快速城市化發(fā)展階段,在未來(lái)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)仍將處于該階段。實(shí)證分析結(jié)果表明城市化水平的提高加大了城市居民對(duì)城市住房需求,對(duì)住房銷(xiāo)售量具有正向促進(jìn)作用,這也使得住房平均銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格進(jìn)一步提高,城市化發(fā)展對(duì)住房市場(chǎng)具有顯著的促進(jìn)作用,但是不同地區(qū)之間城市化水平對(duì)住房市場(chǎng)影響程度不同。同時(shí)面板模型回歸估計(jì)結(jié)果表明宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)變量對(duì)住房銷(xiāo)售量具有顯著影響,但是對(duì)住房銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格影響不顯著,而這可能是來(lái)源于房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不景氣時(shí)為了避免住房開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的虧損,寧愿降低當(dāng)年住房銷(xiāo)售量也不愿意降低住房銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格所致。從城市化水平預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果來(lái)看,到2020年我國(guó)整體城市化水平將達(dá)到61.41%,到2028年整體城市化水平將突破70%①,進(jìn)入到城市化發(fā)展的第三階段。住房市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果表明城市住房銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格與住房銷(xiāo)售量由于城鎮(zhèn)居民住房剛性需求的旺盛而繼續(xù)保持增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)。 城市化進(jìn)程的快速發(fā)展促進(jìn)了城市住房市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展,但也帶來(lái)了一些社會(huì)關(guān)注問(wèn)題。在城市化發(fā)展的目前階段,居民住房供需矛盾突出,因此政府應(yīng)當(dāng)合理規(guī)劃城市化發(fā)展,解決城市居民住房供需矛盾,提高城市居民收入水平。為了滿足居民住房需求,政府還應(yīng)當(dāng)在加大保障性住房建設(shè)的同時(shí),合理調(diào)控城市住房?jī)r(jià)格,不僅要改善城市居民居住水平,而且應(yīng)當(dāng)關(guān)注與居住水平相關(guān)的周邊環(huán)境建設(shè)、醫(yī)療交通等等,為了居民生活水平的提高而努力。
[Abstract]:City refers to the agricultural population into the city population, rural area into city area, agricultural activities into non agricultural activities. With the development of our city economy level, the rural population gradually to the city area migration area, the migration of rural population to the urban population in the proportion of the total population increasing on the one hand housing. As one of the four basic requirements of basic necessities of life of residents, the urban population will increase demand for housing and housing prices have a positive effect, so the city to raise the level of urban housing market will also bring a broad space for development. On the other hand, with the development of city development, city infrastructure construction, resources carrying the ability of health, transportation and so on will become the focus of social attention, improve the level of city put forward higher to the sustainable development of the city Pray.
Imbalance of regional economic development and urban and rural regional development difference makes the rural population migration to the city area, city population increases year by year. To increase the population of the city has increased the demand for housing, but also pushed up the prices in the city, so this paper will focus on the urbanization level and the City housing market. The content of the article is to analyze the development of changes in our city level, characters in the process of the city and the existing problems, to explore the influence of urbanization level and the city housing market, change and development of city level and housing market forecast and analysis. Because the housing market can be divided into housing prices and housing demand two so the attributes of the housing market is presented, from the two aspects of housing sales prices and housing sales.
Firstly, this paper analyzes the impact of the development level of the city's housing market from the relevant theory, discuss the influence mechanism. Secondly, analysis of China's current overall level of city development status and existing problems, analyzes the status quo and changes in the housing market. In the empirical analysis, from 1998 to 2011 in China's 23 provinces, city, autonomous region the panel data of city and the level of housing sales prices, housing sales are variable coefficient panel model estimation, in addition to the housing market impact of the two sides of the city development. Again using fifth census data and sixth census data, according to the forecast rate of growth in the future of China's urban and rural differences between the city and the whole the area level changes, and the use of city level forecasts for housing sales and housing sales price forecast. Finally, according to the research contents and research The conclusions put forward relevant policy recommendations.
The results of this study indicate that the current overall level of development in the city of our country city of stage of development of the rapid development of the city in the three stage of the model, will remain at the stage in the next period of time. The empirical results show that the improvement of the level of city residents of the city has increased the city housing demand, has a positive effect on housing sales and it also makes the average sales price of housing to further improve the city development has significant effect on the housing market, but different areas between the city level of the housing market. At the same time the influence of different panel results regression model estimates show that macroeconomic situation variables have significant influence on housing sales, but the impact on housing prices is not significant. This is likely to come from the real estate developers in the sluggish economy in order to avoid the loss of housing development projects Would rather reduce the loss, then the housing sales are not willing to reduce the housing sales price level. Due to the predicted result from the view of the city, the whole city of our country by 2020 will reach the level of 61.41%, the overall level of the city in 2028 will exceed 70%, entered into the third stage of city development. The housing market prediction results show that the city housing sales prices and housing sales for urban residents housing rigid demand and to maintain growth.
The rapid development of city development to promote the development of the housing market in the city, but also brought some social concerns. In the present stage of the development of the city, the contradiction between supply and demand of housing is prominent, so the government should be reasonable planning of city development, city residents housing to solve the contradiction between supply and demand, improve the income level of city residents. In order to meet the residents of housing the government should also increase in demand for affordable housing construction, reasonable regulation of city housing prices, not only to improve the level of city residents, but also should pay attention to the construction of environment associated with the living standards of medical, transportation and so on, in order to improve the living standards and efforts.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F299.23

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