本文關鍵詞： 資本市場 產業(yè)結構升級 協(xié)整分析 灰色關聯(lián)分析 相關分析　出處：《武漢理工大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟增長理論研究表明,產業(yè)結構升級是經(jīng)濟增長的重要推動力。作為國民經(jīng)濟結構的核心組成部分和最基本的結構形態(tài),產業(yè)結構將在很大程度上決定著一個國家的經(jīng)濟競爭力。本質上來講,現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟增長方式正是以產業(yè)結構變動為核心的經(jīng)濟增長模式。中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展正處在“穩(wěn)增長、調結構、促改革”的轉型期,要調整經(jīng)濟增長模式,產業(yè)結構升級是重點。金融是現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟的核心,實體經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展離不開金融的支持,產業(yè)結構升級自然也需要金融支持。而資本市場作為現(xiàn)代金融的核心、現(xiàn)代金融體系的構建基礎,在金融活動中占據(jù)了重要的比重。通過資本市場來促進產業(yè)結構升級將成為一項重要手段。 資本市場能否有效促進產業(yè)結構升級可以看成是對資本市場資源配置有效性的一種檢驗方式。在此基礎上,本文通過理論推導加實證研究的方法論證了我國資本市場與產業(yè)結構升級之間的關系,并結合現(xiàn)狀考察了我國資本市場本身發(fā)展的不足,最終為我國現(xiàn)階段如何逐步完善資本市場以促進產業(yè)結構升級提出建議。本文主要研究內容與相關結論可整理為以下三個部分。(1)資本市場支持產業(yè)結構升級的相關機理分析。在關于資本市場支持產業(yè)結構升級的系統(tǒng)理論未形成的情況下,通過引入企業(yè)這個微觀主體探索了一條資本市場支持產業(yè)結構升級的路徑。(2)在理論研究與機理研究的基礎上,運用1994-2011年的相關數(shù)據(jù)對資本市場支持產業(yè)結構升級進行了實證分析,主要分為三個層次：一是運用協(xié)整理論分析了整個資本市場對產業(yè)結構升級的影響,證實前者對后者具有正向推動作用：二是,在根據(jù)不同融資來源對資本市場進行分類的基礎上,對各個子市場與產業(yè)結構升級之間的相關度進行了灰色關聯(lián)度分析,結果表明股票市場與產業(yè)結構升級之間的關聯(lián)度最高,銀行中長期貸款市場次之,債券市場排在最后；三是,在分析了整個資本市場與高技術產業(yè)結構升級的基礎上,專門考察了中小板與創(chuàng)業(yè)板對于高技術產業(yè)結構升級之間的相關性,從動態(tài)的角度對比發(fā)現(xiàn)資本市場自身的擴容還未達到預期效果。(3)結合實證分析結果,聯(lián)系我國資本市場相關現(xiàn)狀,從宏觀到微觀、整體與局部相結合的角度出發(fā)提出了完善資本市場建設的可行性建議,如在轉板制度中設立標準區(qū)域與緩沖期。
[Abstract]:Modern economic growth theory research shows that industrial structure upgrading is an important driving force of economic growth, as the core part of the national economic structure and the most basic structural form. Industrial structure will determine the economic competitiveness of a country to a large extent. The mode of modern economic growth is just the mode of economic growth with the change of industrial structure as the core. China's economic development is in the transition period of "steady growth, adjusting the structure and promoting reform", it is necessary to adjust the mode of economic growth. The upgrading of industrial structure is the key point. Finance is the core of modern economy, and the development of real economy can not be separated from the support of finance. The upgrading of industrial structure naturally also needs financial support. The capital market is the core of modern finance. The foundation of the modern financial system occupies an important proportion in the financial activities, and it will become an important means to promote the upgrading of industrial structure through the capital market. Whether the capital market can effectively promote the upgrading of industrial structure can be seen as a way to test the effectiveness of the allocation of capital market resources. This paper demonstrates the relationship between China's capital market and industrial structure upgrading through theoretical derivation and empirical research, and examines the deficiencies of the development of China's capital market itself in combination with the current situation. Finally, suggestions on how to improve the capital market in order to promote the upgrading of industrial structure are put forward. The main research contents and related conclusions can be sorted into the following three parts. Analysis of the mechanism of capital market supporting industrial structure upgrading. In the case of capital market supporting industrial structure upgrading system theory has not been formed. By introducing enterprise as a micro subject, this paper explores a path of capital market supporting industrial structure upgrading. (2) on the basis of theoretical research and mechanism research. Using the relevant data from 1994 to 2011, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the upgrading of capital market supporting industrial structure. It is mainly divided into three levels: first, the use of co-integration theory to analyze the impact of the entire capital market on the upgrading of industrial structure, to confirm that the former has a positive role in the latter; the second is. On the basis of classifying the capital market according to different financing sources, this paper analyzes the correlation between each sub-market and the upgrading of industrial structure. The results show that the relationship between the stock market and the upgrading of industrial structure is the highest, the medium and long-term loan market of banks is the second, and the bond market is the last. Third, based on the analysis of the whole capital market and the upgrading of high-tech industrial structure, the correlation between the small and medium-sized board and the gem for the upgrading of high-tech industrial structure is investigated. From the dynamic point of view, we find that the expansion of the capital market itself has not achieved the expected results. (3) combined with the results of empirical analysis, linked to the current situation of China's capital market, from macro to micro. From the angle of the combination of whole and part, the paper puts forward some feasible suggestions to perfect the construction of capital market, such as setting up standard area and buffer period in the system of transfer board.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F121.3;F832.5

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