本文關(guān)鍵詞：萬科房地產(chǎn)公司投資價值分析　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：對于股票市場中的投資方,股票的價格波動經(jīng)常帶著神秘的面紗。針對這個問題,被稱為“華爾街教父”的英國經(jīng)濟學家本杰明·格雷厄姆在1934年出版的《證券分析》中曾提出有關(guān)“價值投資”的投資思想：在紛繁復(fù)雜的股票市場中,每只股票的市場報價波動都具有極強烈的投機性(一位喜怒無常的市場先生),然而就長遠來看的話股票的價格一定會回到他的理論價值上來(企業(yè)管理自身資產(chǎn)以及從中獲利的能力)。如今為我們所熟知的世界著名投資者沃倫巴菲特也是這種理性投資觀點的擁護者。 現(xiàn)在再將視野放到我國的股票市場上來,經(jīng)過二十幾年的成長發(fā)展,在國家政府以及相關(guān)職能部門的大力支持與協(xié)助下,它已經(jīng)變成了具有兩千多家企業(yè)的大型股票市場。據(jù)相關(guān)的媒體介紹,我國股票市場的總市值已經(jīng)能夠躋身世界前列。但是另一方面,盡管股票的發(fā)行量與交易量在與日俱增,我國的市場在相關(guān)的制度建設(shè)以及針對上市企業(yè)的價值評估方面卻并不成熟。這些制度以及相關(guān)建設(shè)的缺失,直接導致了股價的大幅度波動以及現(xiàn)在被大家過高估計的市盈率。 在這樣的市場環(huán)境下,如果股票投資者不具有一定的理性投資觀念,就會很容易成為市場上的弱勢群體,這部分人群認為股票僅僅是一種可以很快生財?shù)耐稒C手段。通常他們會由于缺乏對于股票背后公司的了解而盲目跟風,從而造成自己的損失。因此,為了使更多的炒股者免受損失,同時也為了健全我們國家的股票市場,防止股票投機者對市場引起的混亂,我們必須擁有一套正確理解公司投資價值的完備理論�；诖�,便有了本文的寫作。 目前國內(nèi)對行業(yè)投資的相關(guān)研究比較幾年前已相對成熟,許多券商都會定期推出各行各業(yè)的研究報告,對某一行業(yè)或是某一板塊做出投資分析和建議,但大部分報告主要側(cè)重于通過行業(yè)分析直接得到公司股票的投資評級。許多分析報告僅是就宏觀行業(yè)分析作為文章的主題,而沒有探討公司的具體投資價值,并沒有具體沒有采用定量性方法計算公司的價值。 本文相對于行業(yè)研究報告的創(chuàng)新之處在于,選取萬科公司作為研究對象,通過對行業(yè)本身進行比較充分的挖掘,以宏觀的行業(yè)分析作為鋪墊,專注于對萬科公司的價值分析,通過對公司基本面和歷史財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)的分析,務(wù)求盡量準確的預(yù)測公司未來績效。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對萬科房地產(chǎn)公司的未來經(jīng)營績效進行了預(yù)測,并利用現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)模型計算了公司的具體投資價值,從而力求在定性和定量兩方面為企業(yè)投資價值做出全面而詳盡的研究。 本文共分為六個部分,各部分內(nèi)容如下： 第一部分是前言。主要描述文章的研究背景和意義、相關(guān)的研究內(nèi)容和所使用的研究方法,同時對于自身論文的創(chuàng)新點以及不足做出了闡述。 第二部分是對于我國地產(chǎn)市場的歷史和現(xiàn)狀分析,對于該行業(yè)的發(fā)展背景進行了介紹,同時指出了現(xiàn)階段我國房地產(chǎn)市場所呈現(xiàn)出來的特點。這一部分能夠使讀者掌握到該行業(yè)的發(fā)展情況以及相關(guān)的行業(yè)特點。 第三部分是萬科公司的簡介,這部分主要是對所選擇的公司進行基本情況和相關(guān)背景的介紹,目的在于使讀者對于該公司有一個初步的印象,能夠理解下文對于公司的展開分析。 第四部分是宏觀經(jīng)濟政策對萬科公司的影響以及公司的SWOT分析,該部分從公司所面臨的宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境以及公司自身的戰(zhàn)略角度去考量分析公司的應(yīng)變的優(yōu)勢劣勢以及相關(guān)的機會威脅分析,通過該部分的SWOT分析我們可以了解認識到公司的戰(zhàn)略發(fā)展架構(gòu),從而從定性的角度上去分析公司的投資價值。 第五以及第六個部分是對公司投資價值的定量分析,從財務(wù)報表數(shù)據(jù)的分析入手,先讓投資者從公司的財務(wù)情況看清公司的運營情況,再通過自由現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)的模型方法去完成一個更加具體的公司相關(guān)投資價值的計算,為公司投資價值做一個量化的結(jié)論。 最后一個部分是結(jié)論,包括對于公司投資價值定性和定量兩方面的相關(guān)投資建議。定性價值結(jié)論是基于前文的宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境以及相關(guān)政策分析得出的,定量價值的相關(guān)結(jié)論是基于前文對公司的財務(wù)報表數(shù)據(jù)的分析以及由自由現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)模型計算出的公司理論價值得出的。
[Abstract]:For investing in the stock market, stock price volatility often with a mysterious veil. Aiming at this problem, the British economist Benjamin Graham called the "godfather of Wall Street" in the 1934 issue of Securities Analysis > raised about "value investment" investment ideas: in the complicated stock market, price each stock market volatility is very strong (a speculative market, however, subject to changing moods) on the long run if the stock price will return to his theory of value (enterprise management of their assets and ability to profit from now). As a champion of the known world famous investor Warren Buffett is the reason investment ideas.
The view in China's stock market up to now, after 20 years of development, in the strong support and assistance of the state government and the relevant functional departments, it has become the more than 2000 companies with large stock market. According to the relevant media reports, the total market value of the stock market of our country has been able to get ahead in the world but on the other hand, although the stock issuance and trading volume in China's market to grow with each passing day, the relevant system construction and the valuation of listed companies is not mature. These systems and lack of relevant construction, directly lead to the fluctuations of stock prices and now we overestimate earnings.
In this market environment, if the stock investors do not have rational investment ideas, it is easy to become vulnerable groups in the market, this part of the crowd that stock is only a means of speculation can quickly make money. They usually due to lack of stock for the company behind the understanding and blindly follow the trend, resulting in their own the loss. Therefore, in order to make more stocks from losses, but also in order to perfect our country's stock market, the stock market speculators to prevent confusion caused by the complete theory, we must have a correct understanding of the investment value of the company. Based on this, it is the writing of this paper.
At present, domestic research on the industry investment compared to a few years ago has been relatively mature, many firms will regularly launch research reports from all walks of life, in a particular industry or a plate to make the investment analysis and recommendations, but most of the report focuses mainly on the industry analysis directly receive stock investment rating. Many analysis is the only report on the macro analysis of the industry as the theme of the article, but not on the investment value of the company, and there is no specific without the use of quantitative calculation method of the value of the company.
The report is innovation, chooses Vanke Company as the research object, based on the mining industry itself more fully, the macro industry analysis as a way, focus on the Vanke's value analysis, through the analysis of the company's fundamentals and historical financial data, to make accurate Forecast Ltd's future performance. On this basis, the Vanke Real Estate Company's future performance was predicted, and the use of cash specific investment value of the company to calculate the flow model in two aspects, to qualitative and quantitative investment value for enterprises to make a comprehensive and detailed study.
This article is divided into six parts, the contents of each part are as follows:
The first part is the preface. It mainly describes the research background and significance of the article, the related research contents and the research methods used. At the same time, it expounds the innovation and deficiency of its own paper.
The second part is the analysis of the history and status quo of China's real estate market, the development background of the industry are introduced, and points out the characteristics of China's real estate market show. This part enables the readers to grasp the development of the industries and related industries.
The third part is a brief introduction of Vanke Company, which is mainly about the basic situation and background of the selected companies. The purpose is to make readers have a preliminary impression of the company and understand the following analysis of the company.
The fourth part is the analysis of SWOT macro economic policy impact on China Vanke Company and the analysis of the strategic point of view from the macro economic environment faced by the company and the company's own company to consider the advantages and disadvantages of the strain analysis and related opportunities and threats by SWOT, the part of the analysis we can understand to the company's strategic development architecture, thus to analyze the investment value of the company from the qualitative point of view.
The fifth and sixth part is the quantitative analysis of the investment value of the company, starting from the analysis of financial data, let investors see the operations of the company from the company's financial situation, and then through the model calculation method of free cash flow of the company to achieve a more specific investment value, make a quantitative the conclusion for the investment value of the company.
The last part is the conclusion, including the investment value of the company for the two aspects of qualitative and quantitative investment advices. The qualitative conclusion is based on the above analysis of the value of the macroeconomic environment and the relevant policy that the relevant conclusions of the quantitative value is based on the theory of value analysis on company's financial statements and data from free cash flow the discount model to calculate the results.

【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.51;F299.233.4

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本文編號：1386571