【摘要】：新疆移動通信業(yè)正處于2G增速放緩、3G高速發(fā)展、LTE商用起步的關(guān)鍵階段。一方面用戶規(guī)模和業(yè)務量快速增長；另一方面用戶對移動通信業(yè)務種類的需求的多樣化也在不斷加強。新疆移動業(yè)務需求規(guī)劃方案設計的合理性能確保預判未來移動通信市場的業(yè)務需求量，對新疆移動公司的業(yè)務發(fā)展、網(wǎng)絡規(guī)劃建設等做出科學的、有數(shù)據(jù)支撐的指導和建議。 目前，國內(nèi)業(yè)務規(guī)劃主要以定性方法進行人為的估計分析方法來推斷移動業(yè)務發(fā)展情況，該方法缺少數(shù)據(jù)支撐致使結(jié)果說服力不強，無法滿足當前精細化業(yè)務規(guī)劃的要求。 本文對新疆移動業(yè)務的現(xiàn)狀進行分析，面對不同的業(yè)務采用不同的預測方法，首次采用自上而下與自下而上的方法進行預測，對運營收入、用戶數(shù)、計費時長和數(shù)據(jù)流量的預測結(jié)果進行對比驗證。在預測過程中，針對輸入數(shù)據(jù)維數(shù)太多，并且數(shù)據(jù)之間相關(guān)性不強等原因，對數(shù)據(jù)進行了預處理。數(shù)據(jù)預處理主要工作包括相關(guān)性分析、K-L信息量法、格蘭杰因果檢驗、主成分分析和聚類分析等定量分析方法。本文采用多元線性回歸模型等預測方法，建立了預測模型預測某地區(qū)未來三年的業(yè)務數(shù)據(jù)。 最終，本文以一個市級地區(qū)的數(shù)據(jù)進行了實驗驗證，通過對運營收入、用戶數(shù)、計費時長和數(shù)據(jù)流量的預測，得到該地區(qū)未來三年運營收入、用戶數(shù)、計費時長和數(shù)據(jù)流量的發(fā)展需求。 本文所完成的某區(qū)公司的規(guī)劃試點工作成果，所得到的運營收入、用戶數(shù)、計費時長和數(shù)據(jù)流量的預測結(jié)果在向新疆移動公司的匯報展示中，，獲得了新疆移動公司的充分認可，為下一步全疆的業(yè)務規(guī)劃和網(wǎng)絡規(guī)劃做出必要的基礎(chǔ)準備和經(jīng)驗累積。
[Abstract]:The Xinjiang mobile communication industry is in the critical stage of 2G growth slowing and 3G high-speed development and LTE commercial start-up. On the one hand, the user size and business volume are growing rapidly; on the other hand, the diversification of users' demand for mobile communication services is also increasing. The reasonable performance of Xinjiang Mobile Service requirement Planning Scheme ensures that the future mobile communication market needs to be forecasted, and provides scientific and data-supported guidance and suggestions to Xinjiang Mobile Company's business development, network planning and construction. At present, the domestic service planning mainly uses the qualitative method to carry on the artificial estimation analysis method to infer the mobile service development situation, this method lacks the data support causes the result is not convincing, cannot satisfy the present fine service planning request. In this paper, the current situation of Xinjiang Mobile Services is analyzed. In the face of different services, different forecasting methods are used for the first time, the top-down and bottom-up methods are used to forecast the operating income and the number of users. The forecasting results of charging time and data flow are compared and verified. In the process of prediction, the data is preprocessed because of too many dimensions of input data, and the correlation between data is not strong. The main work of data preprocessing includes correlation analysis K-L information method Granger causality test principal component analysis cluster analysis and other quantitative analysis methods. In this paper, the multivariate linear regression model is used to predict the business data of a certain area in the next three years. Finally, this paper has carried on the experimental verification with the data of a city level area, through the forecast to the operating income, the user number, the billing time and the data flow, obtains the operation income, the user number in the next three years in this area, Billing time and data flow development requirements. The results of the planning and pilot work of a certain district company, the forecast results of operating income, number of users, billing time and data flow achieved in this paper have been fully recognized by Xinjiang Mobile Company in its report to Xinjiang Mobile Company. Make the necessary basic preparation and experience accumulation for the next business planning and network planning of Xinjiang.
【學位授予單位】：新疆大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F626

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