【摘要】：新疆移動(dòng)通信業(yè)正處于2G增速放緩、3G高速發(fā)展、LTE商用起步的關(guān)鍵階段。一方面用戶規(guī)模和業(yè)務(wù)量快速增長(zhǎng)；另一方面用戶對(duì)移動(dòng)通信業(yè)務(wù)種類的需求的多樣化也在不斷加強(qiáng)。新疆移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)需求規(guī)劃方案設(shè)計(jì)的合理性能確保預(yù)判未來(lái)移動(dòng)通信市場(chǎng)的業(yè)務(wù)需求量，對(duì)新疆移動(dòng)公司的業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展、網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)劃建設(shè)等做出科學(xué)的、有數(shù)據(jù)支撐的指導(dǎo)和建議。 目前，國(guó)內(nèi)業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)劃主要以定性方法進(jìn)行人為的估計(jì)分析方法來(lái)推斷移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展情況，該方法缺少數(shù)據(jù)支撐致使結(jié)果說(shuō)服力不強(qiáng)，無(wú)法滿足當(dāng)前精細(xì)化業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)劃的要求。 本文對(duì)新疆移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析，面對(duì)不同的業(yè)務(wù)采用不同的預(yù)測(cè)方法，首次采用自上而下與自下而上的方法進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，對(duì)運(yùn)營(yíng)收入、用戶數(shù)、計(jì)費(fèi)時(shí)長(zhǎng)和數(shù)據(jù)流量的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比驗(yàn)證。在預(yù)測(cè)過(guò)程中，針對(duì)輸入數(shù)據(jù)維數(shù)太多，并且數(shù)據(jù)之間相關(guān)性不強(qiáng)等原因，對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了預(yù)處理。數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理主要工作包括相關(guān)性分析、K-L信息量法、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、主成分分析和聚類分析等定量分析方法。本文采用多元線性回歸模型等預(yù)測(cè)方法，建立了預(yù)測(cè)模型預(yù)測(cè)某地區(qū)未來(lái)三年的業(yè)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)。 最終，本文以一個(gè)市級(jí)地區(qū)的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)驗(yàn)驗(yàn)證，通過(guò)對(duì)運(yùn)營(yíng)收入、用戶數(shù)、計(jì)費(fèi)時(shí)長(zhǎng)和數(shù)據(jù)流量的預(yù)測(cè)，得到該地區(qū)未來(lái)三年運(yùn)營(yíng)收入、用戶數(shù)、計(jì)費(fèi)時(shí)長(zhǎng)和數(shù)據(jù)流量的發(fā)展需求。 本文所完成的某區(qū)公司的規(guī)劃試點(diǎn)工作成果，所得到的運(yùn)營(yíng)收入、用戶數(shù)、計(jì)費(fèi)時(shí)長(zhǎng)和數(shù)據(jù)流量的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果在向新疆移動(dòng)公司的匯報(bào)展示中，，獲得了新疆移動(dòng)公司的充分認(rèn)可，為下一步全疆的業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)劃和網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)劃做出必要的基礎(chǔ)準(zhǔn)備和經(jīng)驗(yàn)累積。
[Abstract]:The Xinjiang mobile communication industry is in the critical stage of 2G growth slowing and 3G high-speed development and LTE commercial start-up. On the one hand, the user size and business volume are growing rapidly; on the other hand, the diversification of users' demand for mobile communication services is also increasing. The reasonable performance of Xinjiang Mobile Service requirement Planning Scheme ensures that the future mobile communication market needs to be forecasted, and provides scientific and data-supported guidance and suggestions to Xinjiang Mobile Company's business development, network planning and construction. At present, the domestic service planning mainly uses the qualitative method to carry on the artificial estimation analysis method to infer the mobile service development situation, this method lacks the data support causes the result is not convincing, cannot satisfy the present fine service planning request. In this paper, the current situation of Xinjiang Mobile Services is analyzed. In the face of different services, different forecasting methods are used for the first time, the top-down and bottom-up methods are used to forecast the operating income and the number of users. The forecasting results of charging time and data flow are compared and verified. In the process of prediction, the data is preprocessed because of too many dimensions of input data, and the correlation between data is not strong. The main work of data preprocessing includes correlation analysis K-L information method Granger causality test principal component analysis cluster analysis and other quantitative analysis methods. In this paper, the multivariate linear regression model is used to predict the business data of a certain area in the next three years. Finally, this paper has carried on the experimental verification with the data of a city level area, through the forecast to the operating income, the user number, the billing time and the data flow, obtains the operation income, the user number in the next three years in this area, Billing time and data flow development requirements. The results of the planning and pilot work of a certain district company, the forecast results of operating income, number of users, billing time and data flow achieved in this paper have been fully recognized by Xinjiang Mobile Company in its report to Xinjiang Mobile Company. Make the necessary basic preparation and experience accumulation for the next business planning and network planning of Xinjiang.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F626

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