通信服務(wù)配套產(chǎn)業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移的風(fēng)險分析及防范
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-02 19:52
【摘要】：當(dāng)前,伴隨著跨國公司新一輪的全球產(chǎn)業(yè)布局,世界范圍內(nèi)服務(wù)業(yè)也加快了向海外市場轉(zhuǎn)移的步伐,同時發(fā)展中國家也在不斷地加大走出去的力度,加速實施海外經(jīng)營戰(zhàn)略,并帶動了相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的國際轉(zhuǎn)移。在企業(yè)國際化以及隨之而來的產(chǎn)業(yè)國際轉(zhuǎn)移過程中,無可避免地會面臨各種國際風(fēng)險的威脅與制約。在我國,通信服務(wù)配套產(chǎn)業(yè)作為通信服務(wù)行業(yè)的輔業(yè),隨著自身業(yè)務(wù)擴(kuò)展需要及與其有戰(zhàn)略合作關(guān)系的大型通信設(shè)備制造商等的海外擴(kuò)張,也開始了向海外加速轉(zhuǎn)移的步伐。 同國際上前幾次產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移相比,不同之處在于我國相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)移目的地主要集中在亞非拉等發(fā)展中國家或欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū),通信服務(wù)配套產(chǎn)業(yè)也不例外。該產(chǎn)業(yè)在海外轉(zhuǎn)移的過程中面臨著復(fù)雜的國際風(fēng)險,因而研究各類國際風(fēng)險對該產(chǎn)業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移的影響,通過相關(guān)方法識別、評估出主要風(fēng)險,并制定出有效的風(fēng)險防范措施,對于促進(jìn)該產(chǎn)業(yè)及相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的海外轉(zhuǎn)移具有重要意義。本文的研究較以往不同之處在于,之前國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于風(fēng)險的研究主要是基于國際企業(yè)的視角入手,同時往往也只針對其中某一風(fēng)險展開分析,國內(nèi)也有學(xué)者從承接國外產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移或西部承接?xùn)|部產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的風(fēng)險來進(jìn)行研究,少有對我國向外產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移進(jìn)行研究,在一定意義上也具有創(chuàng)新性,同時研究的視角也緊密地圍繞產(chǎn)業(yè)的海外轉(zhuǎn)移與企業(yè)國際化進(jìn)程展開。 本文以通信服務(wù)配套產(chǎn)業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移的風(fēng)險分析及防范為主題,通過相關(guān)方法的歸納、識別、測度出影響轉(zhuǎn)移的主要風(fēng)險因素,然后結(jié)合實例進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)論證。在緊密結(jié)合專家打分法、風(fēng)險矩陣評估法、Borda序值法等方法的基礎(chǔ)上,有效地評估了關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險,然后對各關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險進(jìn)行有效地剖析并提出相應(yīng)的防范對策。全文研究主要包括三個部分：理論推導(dǎo)、實證研究、結(jié)論。 在理論導(dǎo)出部分,首先第一章先介紹了國際產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的現(xiàn)狀及面臨的風(fēng)險,接著對開展此研究的意義進(jìn)行了簡述,然后回顧了國內(nèi)外關(guān)于國際產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移及國際風(fēng)險管理理論的研究成果并對其進(jìn)行了綜述。最后在通過對國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于國際風(fēng)險因素及其識別防范等研究成果的學(xué)習(xí)與總結(jié),在吸收前人成果精華的同時,結(jié)合通信服務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)本身的特點及其海外轉(zhuǎn)移現(xiàn)狀,形成了本文的主導(dǎo)研究思想,并提出了相應(yīng)的理論假設(shè)和研究框架；文章第二章先對國際產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的風(fēng)險概念進(jìn)行了界定,然后從已有的風(fēng)險識別方法著手搭建了國際產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移整合風(fēng)險的分析框架并對國際風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了細(xì)分。在明晰了風(fēng)險識別方法后,對風(fēng)險評估的決定因素進(jìn)行了分析并導(dǎo)出本文主要的評估方法—風(fēng)險矩陣評估法。在本章的最后對國際產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險防范的基本手段進(jìn)行了描述,并對防范體系的基本流程進(jìn)行了概括；文章第三章對通信服務(wù)配套產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了較為全面的介紹,鑒于該產(chǎn)業(yè)的行業(yè)特殊性,文章先對該產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)行了一般意義的界定,然后對產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀從業(yè)務(wù)板塊的構(gòu)成情況及區(qū)域分布進(jìn)行了概況,最后則從介紹該產(chǎn)業(yè)的海外轉(zhuǎn)移戰(zhàn)略著手,分析了該產(chǎn)業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移所面臨的困難,為實證部分的研究提供有效的支撐。 在實證研究部分,運(yùn)用理論研究方法并結(jié)合問卷結(jié)果,對國際風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了定量的分析,進(jìn)而對宏、中、微觀三個層面里影響該產(chǎn)業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行了排序,從而找到了解決問題的方向。最后在有效地識別、測度并評估出關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險因素的基礎(chǔ)上,本文有針對性的提出了相關(guān)的防范措施。具體來講,從第四章開始,首先按照風(fēng)險環(huán)境分析法,將風(fēng)險集劃分為三個層面、11個風(fēng)險模塊,然后通過對通信服務(wù)領(lǐng)域的10位專家或者管理者進(jìn)行訪談及問卷調(diào)查,由專家組按照相關(guān)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)篩選出了他們認(rèn)為最重要的共7個影響產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險模塊,借此風(fēng)險的評估圍繞在7個風(fēng)險模塊中展開;然后通過問卷的形式由10位專家分別就7大關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險模塊的風(fēng)險等級分值與風(fēng)險發(fā)生概率進(jìn)行打分,借此算出風(fēng)險等級的量化值。之后通過采用Borda序值法對各風(fēng)險因素或者模塊的重要性進(jìn)行兩兩比較,進(jìn)而根據(jù)層次分析法的路徑計算出各風(fēng)險模塊的權(quán)重,并根據(jù)寫作的一定條件對每個風(fēng)險模塊重要性程度的準(zhǔn)確風(fēng)險權(quán)重進(jìn)行賦值。最后通過公式:RVi=RRi×RWi計算出綜合風(fēng)險等級量化值,篩選出7個風(fēng)險模塊的重要順序。通過對通信服務(wù)配套產(chǎn)業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移所面臨的主要風(fēng)險的評估,本文認(rèn)為財務(wù)風(fēng)險、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險、政治風(fēng)險、市場風(fēng)險、競爭風(fēng)險等五大風(fēng)險,是阻礙該產(chǎn)業(yè)向海外轉(zhuǎn)移的重要制約性因素；第五章則從政治風(fēng)險、外匯風(fēng)險、市場風(fēng)險、競爭風(fēng)險以及財務(wù)風(fēng)險等五方面的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了分析并提出了具體的防范措施。 在結(jié)論部分,通過研究分析之后,對我國相關(guān)服務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移提出了一些具有共性的總結(jié),主要有三點：1、產(chǎn)業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險繁多且難以把握。不同類型的產(chǎn)業(yè)面臨的風(fēng)險類型盡管大同小異,但是每一種風(fēng)險對其造成的影響程度有較大差異；2、對于產(chǎn)業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移的風(fēng)險防范,需要建立一整套較為完善系統(tǒng)的方法或者解決措施。風(fēng)險的識別非常重要,要力求完善；3、在產(chǎn)業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移的風(fēng)險防范過程中,風(fēng)險識別是基礎(chǔ),風(fēng)險的正確評估是風(fēng)險管理的關(guān)鍵,而采取正確的風(fēng)險管理策略則是產(chǎn)業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險防范的核心。三個步驟結(jié)合緊密,共同構(gòu)成一個整體的系統(tǒng)。同時在文章的最后針對本文的不足之處進(jìn)行了說明,并對未來的研究提出了相關(guān)的展望。
[Abstract]:At present, with the new round of global industrial layout of multinational companies, service industry in the world has also accelerated the pace of transfer to overseas markets. Meanwhile, developing countries are also increasing the strength of going out, speeding up the implementation of overseas business strategy, and promoting international transfer of related industries. In the process of industry international transfer, it is unavoidable to face the threat and restriction of various international risks. In our country, as the auxiliary industry of the communication service industry, the communication service supporting industry has also begun to accelerate the overseas expansion along with the expansion of its own business expansion and the large communication equipment manufacturers with its strategic cooperation. The pace.
Compared with the previous industrial transfer in the world, the difference lies in that the transfer purpose of the related industries in China is concentrated in developing and underdeveloped regions such as Asia and Africa, and the supporting industry of communication services is no exception. It is of great significance to promote the overseas transfer of the industry and related industries. The research in this paper is different from that in the past, which is mainly based on the international business. At the same time, at the same time, it is often only analyzed for one of the risks. There are also scholars in China to undertake research on the risks of undertaking foreign industrial transfer or the Western undertaking of eastern industrial transfer, and few studies on the transfer of foreign industry in China, in a sense, it is also innovative, and the perspective of the research is closely related to the industry. The transfer of overseas and the process of enterprise internationalization.
This paper takes the risk analysis and prevention as the theme of the overseas transfer of the communication service industry. Through the induction of relevant methods, it identifies and measures the main risk factors that affect the transfer, and then combines the examples to demonstrate the data. On the basis of close combination of expert scoring, risk matrix assessment and Borda order value method, it is effectively evaluated. The key risks are analyzed and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward. The full text includes three parts: theoretical derivation, empirical research, and conclusion.
In the first chapter, the first chapter introduces the current situation and the risks of international industry transfer, then gives a brief introduction to the significance of this research, and then reviews the research results on international industry transfer and international risk management theory at home and abroad and reviews it. Finally, it has been passed to domestic and foreign scholars. The study and summary of international risk factors and their identification and prevention, while absorbing the essence of previous achievements, combined with the characteristics of the communication service industry and the status of overseas transfer, formed the leading research ideas of this article, and put forward the corresponding theoretical hypothesis and research framework; the second chapter of the article first transferred to the international industry. The concept of risk is defined, and then from the existing risk identification methods, the analysis framework of international industrial transfer integration risk is set up and international risk is subdivided. After clarifying the risk identification method, the determinants of risk assessment are analyzed and the main evaluation method of this paper, risk matrix assessment, is derived. At the end of this chapter, the basic means of risk prevention for international industry transfer are described, and the basic process of the prevention system is summarized. The third chapter of the article is a more comprehensive introduction to the development status of the communication service industry. In view of the industry particularity, the article first carries out the general intention of the industry. The definition of righteousness, and then the situation of the industry development status from the composition and regional distribution of the business sector, and at the end of the introduction of the overseas transfer strategy of the industry, analysis of the difficulties faced by the overseas transfer of the industry, and provide effective support for the empirical part of the research.
In the part of the empirical study, the theoretical research method and the result of the questionnaire are used to analyze the international risk quantitatively, and then the key risk factors which affect the overseas transfer of the industry in macro, middle and micro three levels are sorted, and the solution to the problem is found. Finally, the key wind is effectively identified, measured and evaluated. On the basis of the risk factors, this paper puts forward relevant preventive measures. Specifically, starting from the fourth chapter, first according to the risk environment analysis method, the risk set is divided into three levels, 11 risk modules, and then through the interview and questionnaire survey of 10 experts or managers in the field of communication services, by the expert group According to the relevant standards, the key risk modules, which are considered to be the most important factors affecting industrial transfer, are selected, and the risk assessment is carried out around 7 risk modules, and then the risk rating and risk probability of the 7 key risk modules are divided by 10 experts through the form of questionnaire, and the risk is calculated by the 10 experts. Then the Borda order value method is used to compare the importance of each risk factor or module, then the weight of each risk module is calculated according to the path of the analytic hierarchy process, and the weight of the accurate risk weight of each risk module is assigned according to the certain conditions of the writing. RVi=RRi x RWi calculates the quantitative value of the comprehensive risk grade and selects the important order of the 7 risk modules. Through the assessment of the main risks faced by the overseas transfer of the telecommunication service industry, this paper considers that the financial risk, the macroeconomic risk, the political risk, the market risk, the competitive risk and so on are the five risks, which are hindering the industry to overseas. The important restrictive factors of transfer; the fifth chapter analyzes and puts forward specific precautionary measures from five aspects of political risk, foreign exchange risk, market risk, competition risk and financial risk.
In the conclusion part, after the research and analysis, we put forward some common summaries to the overseas transfer of related service industries in China. There are three main points: 1, the risks of the industry overseas transfer are various and difficult to grasp. The risk types of different types of industries are different, but the degree of impact of each kind of risk is more than that of the same. 2, for the risk prevention of industry overseas transfer, it is necessary to establish a complete set of systematic methods or solutions. The identification of risk is very important and must be improved. 3, risk identification is the basis of risk identification in the process of risk prevention in the transfer of industry overseas, and the correct assessment of risk is the key to risk management, and it is correct to take the correct assessment. The risk management strategy is the core of risk prevention in the industry overseas transfer. Three steps are combined to form a whole system together. At the same time, the shortcomings of this paper are explained at the end of the article, and the future research is put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F626
本文編號：2160550
[Abstract]:At present, with the new round of global industrial layout of multinational companies, service industry in the world has also accelerated the pace of transfer to overseas markets. Meanwhile, developing countries are also increasing the strength of going out, speeding up the implementation of overseas business strategy, and promoting international transfer of related industries. In the process of industry international transfer, it is unavoidable to face the threat and restriction of various international risks. In our country, as the auxiliary industry of the communication service industry, the communication service supporting industry has also begun to accelerate the overseas expansion along with the expansion of its own business expansion and the large communication equipment manufacturers with its strategic cooperation. The pace.
Compared with the previous industrial transfer in the world, the difference lies in that the transfer purpose of the related industries in China is concentrated in developing and underdeveloped regions such as Asia and Africa, and the supporting industry of communication services is no exception. It is of great significance to promote the overseas transfer of the industry and related industries. The research in this paper is different from that in the past, which is mainly based on the international business. At the same time, at the same time, it is often only analyzed for one of the risks. There are also scholars in China to undertake research on the risks of undertaking foreign industrial transfer or the Western undertaking of eastern industrial transfer, and few studies on the transfer of foreign industry in China, in a sense, it is also innovative, and the perspective of the research is closely related to the industry. The transfer of overseas and the process of enterprise internationalization.
This paper takes the risk analysis and prevention as the theme of the overseas transfer of the communication service industry. Through the induction of relevant methods, it identifies and measures the main risk factors that affect the transfer, and then combines the examples to demonstrate the data. On the basis of close combination of expert scoring, risk matrix assessment and Borda order value method, it is effectively evaluated. The key risks are analyzed and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward. The full text includes three parts: theoretical derivation, empirical research, and conclusion.
In the first chapter, the first chapter introduces the current situation and the risks of international industry transfer, then gives a brief introduction to the significance of this research, and then reviews the research results on international industry transfer and international risk management theory at home and abroad and reviews it. Finally, it has been passed to domestic and foreign scholars. The study and summary of international risk factors and their identification and prevention, while absorbing the essence of previous achievements, combined with the characteristics of the communication service industry and the status of overseas transfer, formed the leading research ideas of this article, and put forward the corresponding theoretical hypothesis and research framework; the second chapter of the article first transferred to the international industry. The concept of risk is defined, and then from the existing risk identification methods, the analysis framework of international industrial transfer integration risk is set up and international risk is subdivided. After clarifying the risk identification method, the determinants of risk assessment are analyzed and the main evaluation method of this paper, risk matrix assessment, is derived. At the end of this chapter, the basic means of risk prevention for international industry transfer are described, and the basic process of the prevention system is summarized. The third chapter of the article is a more comprehensive introduction to the development status of the communication service industry. In view of the industry particularity, the article first carries out the general intention of the industry. The definition of righteousness, and then the situation of the industry development status from the composition and regional distribution of the business sector, and at the end of the introduction of the overseas transfer strategy of the industry, analysis of the difficulties faced by the overseas transfer of the industry, and provide effective support for the empirical part of the research.
In the part of the empirical study, the theoretical research method and the result of the questionnaire are used to analyze the international risk quantitatively, and then the key risk factors which affect the overseas transfer of the industry in macro, middle and micro three levels are sorted, and the solution to the problem is found. Finally, the key wind is effectively identified, measured and evaluated. On the basis of the risk factors, this paper puts forward relevant preventive measures. Specifically, starting from the fourth chapter, first according to the risk environment analysis method, the risk set is divided into three levels, 11 risk modules, and then through the interview and questionnaire survey of 10 experts or managers in the field of communication services, by the expert group According to the relevant standards, the key risk modules, which are considered to be the most important factors affecting industrial transfer, are selected, and the risk assessment is carried out around 7 risk modules, and then the risk rating and risk probability of the 7 key risk modules are divided by 10 experts through the form of questionnaire, and the risk is calculated by the 10 experts. Then the Borda order value method is used to compare the importance of each risk factor or module, then the weight of each risk module is calculated according to the path of the analytic hierarchy process, and the weight of the accurate risk weight of each risk module is assigned according to the certain conditions of the writing. RVi=RRi x RWi calculates the quantitative value of the comprehensive risk grade and selects the important order of the 7 risk modules. Through the assessment of the main risks faced by the overseas transfer of the telecommunication service industry, this paper considers that the financial risk, the macroeconomic risk, the political risk, the market risk, the competitive risk and so on are the five risks, which are hindering the industry to overseas. The important restrictive factors of transfer; the fifth chapter analyzes and puts forward specific precautionary measures from five aspects of political risk, foreign exchange risk, market risk, competition risk and financial risk.
In the conclusion part, after the research and analysis, we put forward some common summaries to the overseas transfer of related service industries in China. There are three main points: 1, the risks of the industry overseas transfer are various and difficult to grasp. The risk types of different types of industries are different, but the degree of impact of each kind of risk is more than that of the same. 2, for the risk prevention of industry overseas transfer, it is necessary to establish a complete set of systematic methods or solutions. The identification of risk is very important and must be improved. 3, risk identification is the basis of risk identification in the process of risk prevention in the transfer of industry overseas, and the correct assessment of risk is the key to risk management, and it is correct to take the correct assessment. The risk management strategy is the core of risk prevention in the industry overseas transfer. Three steps are combined to form a whole system together. At the same time, the shortcomings of this paper are explained at the end of the article, and the future research is put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F626
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