本文選題：因子分析 + 面板數(shù)據(jù)　； 參考：《中南大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：20世紀90年代以來,中國電信產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展舉世矚目,截至2010年底固定電話和移動電話用戶總數(shù)突破11億。作為國民經(jīng)濟的基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè),我國電信業(yè)在時間和空間方面的發(fā)展怎樣,以及其對經(jīng)濟的影響又怎樣,本文主要對這兩個方面進行量化分析。 首先,進行縱向分析,對我國電信業(yè)2003年到2010年8年間的發(fā)展情況進行因子分析,并對各年份進行排序。結(jié)果顯示,綜合得分和因子一(移話因子)得分都逐年增大,說明隨年份呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健向上發(fā)展的趨勢,總體水平在不斷提高。但因子二(固話因子)得分從2008年開始情況出現(xiàn)反常,出現(xiàn)下降趨勢。一方面可能受2008年金融危機的影響,業(yè)務(wù)量有所波動,另一方面因為近些年移動電話和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的發(fā)展迅猛,搶占了市場,使固話市場受到嚴重沖擊。 接著,進行橫向分析,對我國31個省市2010年的年度數(shù)據(jù)進行因子分析并對各省市進行排序,綜合評分最高的是廣東省、江蘇省、浙江省,這三個省地處東南沿海經(jīng)濟發(fā)達地區(qū),電信需求大,電信業(yè)綜合實力非常強。排名相對靠后的三個省市分別為青海、寧夏、西藏。北京、上海、天津三省市因子二(服務(wù)水平因子)的得分非常高,居于前三位,說明這三個地方的電信服務(wù)水平非常高。 最后,運用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型來研究我國各省市電信業(yè)對經(jīng)濟的影響。結(jié)果表明我國各省市電信業(yè)與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間都存在協(xié)整關(guān)系,并且都是顯著正相關(guān),電信業(yè)務(wù)量的增加都會帶動GDP的增加,但不同的省市又存在差異。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, China's telecommunications industry has attracted worldwide attention. By the end of 2010, the total number of fixed and mobile phone subscribers had exceeded 1.1 billion. As the basic industry of the national economy, what is the development of the telecom industry in time and space, and what is its influence on the economy? this paper mainly analyzes these two aspects quantitatively. First of all, it carries on the longitudinal analysis, carries on the factor analysis to our country telecommunication industry development situation from 2003 to 2010 eight years, and carries on the ranking to each year. The results show that the comprehensive score and the factor one (shift factor) score are increasing year by year, which indicates that the overall level is improving continuously with the trend of steady and upward development in the year. But factor two (fixed-line factor) score from 2008 began to appear abnormal, a downward trend. On the one hand, due to the financial crisis in 2008, the volume of business fluctuated, on the other hand, the rapid development of mobile phones and the Internet in recent years, seized the market, so the fixed-line market suffered a serious impact. Then, through horizontal analysis, the annual data of 31 provinces and cities in our country in 2010 are analyzed by factor analysis and sorted out. The highest comprehensive scores are Guangdong Province, Jiangsu Province, and Zhejiang Province, which are located in the economically developed areas along the southeast coast. Telecommunications demand is large, telecommunications industry comprehensive strength is very strong. Qinghai, Ningxia and Tibet are the top three provinces. Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin scored very high in factor two (service level factor), ranking in the top three, indicating that the telecommunications service level in these three places is very high. Finally, the panel data model is used to study the impact of telecom industry in provinces and cities on the economy. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between telecom industry and economic development in various provinces and cities in China, and all of them are significantly positive correlation. The increase of telecom business will lead to the increase of GDP, but there are differences between different provinces and cities.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F224;F626

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