本文選題：需求不確定性 + 移動通信消費者行為　； 參考：《電子科技大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：消費者行為研究是市場營銷活動的基礎(chǔ),對目標(biāo)市場中的消費者行為的深刻理解也已成為構(gòu)建競爭優(yōu)勢的前提條件。西方不乏消費者行為研究,美國加州大學(xué)伯克利分校的MacFadden教授更是以對消費者選擇行為的研究所做出的發(fā)展和貢獻(xiàn)獲2000年諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學(xué)獎;香港及臺灣學(xué)者比較早開始對中國消費者行為的研究;國內(nèi)的消費者研究則剛剛起步。隨著中國移動通信業(yè)的迅猛發(fā)展和市場競爭的加劇,各運營商每用戶每月平均收入不斷下降,對用戶消費行為的深入了解就顯得相當(dāng)重要和急迫,以便實現(xiàn)最優(yōu)定價、制定營銷政策、深入挖掘客戶價值。以上方面的問題也成為許多科研機構(gòu)、電信市場研究者積極探討研究的新的熱點課題。 本論文基于移動通信消費的非同時性、非線性定價、多業(yè)務(wù)、需求不確定性四大特點,將移動通信消費分為選擇行為和使用行為,分別從宏觀和微觀層面的視角,對需求不確定下移動通信消費者行為的影響因素、影響程度、需求模型、彈性等進(jìn)行了細(xì)致的探討。主要研究內(nèi)容和取得的創(chuàng)新性成果如下: 1.針對目前國內(nèi)宏觀層面通信需求定量研究少且未引入消費習(xí)慣因素等問題,運用動態(tài)面板模型給出一種分析中國電信移動通信需求定量研究的可行且可靠的模型,并通過實證分析得到對通信需求較為真實的估計;模型的理論分析和實證研究表明,消費習(xí)慣對移動話音需求有明顯的影響,該模型引入消費習(xí)慣后,有效地還原了價格對移動話音服務(wù)需求的影響;同時,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)價格也是影響移動話音需求的一個重要因素,但需求對價格缺乏彈性,這與其他的研究結(jié)果有所不同,說明目前國內(nèi)價格的降低已不能刺激需求同比例的增長。互補品通信工具和替代品固定本地話音服務(wù)的價格水平對移動話音服務(wù)需求的影響均不大,從結(jié)果上看,固定本地話音服務(wù)更適合視為移動話音服務(wù)的互補品。? 2.針對目前缺乏宏觀層面上對移動通信不同消費群體需求研究的情況,本文采用固定效應(yīng)分位數(shù)回歸模型對移動話音業(yè)務(wù)不同消費群體的需求關(guān)系進(jìn)行了研究,探討各消費群體需求特征的差異并分析產(chǎn)生差異的原因。模型及實證研究表明:價格和收入彈性隨不同消費群體有所不同;對低消費量群體,價格是最重要的影響因素,業(yè)務(wù)本身價格、通信工具價格及固定本地話音業(yè)務(wù)價格中任何一個的單一變動對其移動通信需求產(chǎn)生的影響都比較小;對中、高消費量群體而言,隨著消費量的增加,價格敏感性有上升趨勢,通信工具和固定電話的交叉價格彈性也上升。結(jié)果表明分位數(shù)回歸模型比一般回歸模型能夠更細(xì)致更準(zhǔn)確地描述各因素對移動話音業(yè)務(wù)消費的影響,并為正確判斷移動話音市場發(fā)展階段和制定有效的市場策略提供了一個新的工具。 3.對目前國內(nèi)缺乏微觀層面電信網(wǎng)絡(luò)接入需求量化研究,相關(guān)離散選擇模型在電信接入的應(yīng)用研究也不多見的問題,本文根據(jù)電信資費套餐定價特點對三部定價中影響消費者選擇行為的主要因素進(jìn)行分析,運用多元Logit離散選擇模型建立資費套餐的選擇模型,分析選擇的概率和彈性;利用所取得的移動公司消費者數(shù)據(jù)分析驗證預(yù)期使用量和需求不確定性對選擇行為的影響,并對建立的模型參數(shù)進(jìn)行估計和分析。模型理論分析和實證研究表明:選取的兩個變量需求不確定性和免費通話量均顯著影響用戶的資費選擇,但影響的方向不一;且選擇概率對兩者的彈性都小于1。除個別值外,選擇概率對免費通話量的彈性基本都小于對需求不確定性的彈性。 4.針對目前移動通信消費者使用需求研究中對樣本自選擇偏差和多業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)系研究很少等問題,從微觀層面探討資費選擇、多業(yè)務(wù)之間相互影響等因素對消費者使用行為的影響,建立了資費套餐使用需求模型,并在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行各因素對用戶業(yè)務(wù)使用量影響的實證分析,考查本地被叫通話時長、接收短信數(shù)量、免費通話量三個因素與用戶本地主叫通話需求的相關(guān)性等。模型分析表明:考察的三個因素都與用戶本地主叫通話需求存在較強的相關(guān)性。其中:本地被叫通話時長與用戶本地主叫通話需求呈正相關(guān)趨勢;用戶的短信接收量對其主叫業(yè)務(wù)需求也有明顯的反饋效應(yīng);免費通話量對使用行為的“約束”效果隨著資費的升高也越來越明顯。模型估計結(jié)果表明:模型加入修正項變量后表現(xiàn)良好,有效地避免了樣本選擇偏差;選取的用戶被叫通話量、用戶所接收的短信數(shù)和免費本地主叫通話量均顯著影響用戶的使用(本地主叫通話業(yè)務(wù)量),且三個因素與本地主叫通話業(yè)務(wù)量基本都是同向變化。 5.針對離散/連續(xù)混合需求研究傳統(tǒng)方法的局限、目前主要采用的D/C模型在電信運用較少且未考慮多業(yè)務(wù)的情況,建立了加入移動通信消費非線性定價、多業(yè)務(wù)和需求不確定性3大特點的擴展的D/C模型,分析相應(yīng)的選擇概率、條件和選擇及使用的彈性,最后提出模型的估計方法;模型理論研究和分析表明:一種資費的選擇概率與所有資費的定價要素如固定月租費、從量價格、免費通話量都相關(guān)。多業(yè)務(wù)之間存在相關(guān)性并不影響用戶的資費概率,僅對用戶各業(yè)務(wù)使用量產(chǎn)生影響。當(dāng)對兩種資費進(jìn)行比較時,用戶會權(quán)衡選擇某一資費的收益與損失;收益取決于兩種資費的固定接入費,而損失則取決于用戶使用量不確定性的大小以及使用量超出免費量的可能性;用戶使用需求不確定性越高,其使用量超出免費量的可能性越高,從而用戶更傾向于選擇高免費量的套餐或包月制套餐。
[Abstract]:The study of consumer behavior is the basis of marketing activities. A profound understanding of consumer behavior in the target market has also become a prerequisite for building competitive advantages. There are no lack of consumer behavior research in the West. Professor MacFadden of the University of California at Berkeley in the United States has developed and developed the research on the behavior of the consumer. The contribution won the 2000 Nobel prize in economics; Hongkong and Taiwan scholars have begun to study Chinese consumer behavior earlier; domestic consumer research is just starting. With the rapid development of the China Mobile communication industry and the intensification of market competition, the average monthly income of each user is declining and the consumer behavior is deep. Understanding is very important and urgent in order to achieve optimal pricing, formulate marketing policies, and dig into customer value. The problems above have become a number of scientific research institutions, and the telecom market researchers actively explore new research topics.
Based on the four characteristics of non simultaneity, nonlinear pricing, multi service and demand uncertainty, this paper divides mobile communication consumption into choice behavior and use behavior. From the macro and micro perspective, the influence factors, influence degree, demand model, elasticity of mobile communication consumer behavior under the uncertainty of demand uncertainty are discussed. The main research contents and innovative achievements are as follows:
1. in view of the problem that the quantitative research of communication demand in the domestic macro level is few and the consumption habits are not introduced, the dynamic panel model is used to provide a feasible and reliable model for analyzing the quantitative research of the China Telecom mobile communication demand. The empirical study shows that consumption habits have a significant impact on mobile voice demand. After introducing consumption habits, the model effectively reduces the impact of price on the demand for mobile voice service. At the same time, the study finds that prices are also an important factor affecting the demand for mobile voice, but demand is inelastic to price, which is the result of other research results. It shows that the reduction of domestic prices can not stimulate demand in the same proportion. The price level of complementary product communication tools and substitutes for local voice service has little influence on the demand for mobile voice service. In the result, the fixed local voice service is more suitable as a complementary product of mobile voice service.
2. in view of the lack of research on the demand for different consumer groups in mobile communications at the macro level, this paper uses fixed effect quantile regression model to study the demand relationship of different consumer groups in mobile voice service, discusses the differences in demand characteristics of each consumer group and analyzes the reasons for differences. Model and empirical research It shows that price and income elasticity vary with the different consumer groups; the price is the most important factor for the low consumption population, the price of the business itself, the price of the communication tool, and the single change of any one of the fixed local voice service price are relatively small on the production of its mobile communication demand; for the middle, high consumption group, With the increase of consumption, the price sensitivity has increased, and the cross price elasticity of communication tools and fixed phones also rises. The results show that the quantile regression model can describe the effects of various factors on mobile voice service more accurately and more accurately than the general regression model, and to correctly judge the development stage of the mobile voice market. It also provides a new tool for formulating effective market strategies.
3. to the lack of quantitative research on the demand of telecom network access in China at present, the research on the application of discrete choice model in Telecom Access is not much. This paper analyzes the main factors that affect consumer choice behavior in three pricing based on the pricing characteristics of telecom tariff set, and uses the multiple Logit discrete selection model. The selection model of tariff set is set up, the probability and flexibility of selection are analyzed, and the impact of the expected usage and demand uncertainty on the selection behavior is verified by the analysis of the Mobile Corporation consumer data, and the model parameters are estimated and analyzed. The model theory analysis and empirical study show that the two variables are selected. Both the uncertainty and the free call volume significantly affect the user's tariff selection, but the direction of the impact is different; and the flexibility of the selection probability is less than 1., and the elasticity of the choice probability to the free call is less than the elasticity of the demand uncertainty.
4. in view of the lack of sample self selection deviation and multi business relationship in the research of consumer demand for mobile communication, the influence of the selection of tariff and the interaction between multiple services on the consumer behavior is discussed from the micro level, and the demand model is set up, and the factors are carried out on this basis. An empirical analysis of the impact of the user's service usage is carried out to examine the local call length, the number of messages received, the three factors of free call and the relationship between the local call demand and so on. The model analysis shows that the three factors of the investigation are all related to the needs of the local calls and calls. The time length has a positive correlation with the call demand of the user's local call, and the user's SMS reception also has a significant feedback effect on its calling service demand. The "constraint" effect of free call on the use behavior is becoming more and more obvious with the increase of the tariff. The model estimate shows that the model is good and effective after adding the modified variable. The selection deviation of sample selection is avoided; the number of selected users called call, the number of messages received by the user and the free local call call volume significantly affect the user's use (local call traffic), and the three factors are basically the same as the local calling traffic.
5. in view of the limitations of the traditional methods for the study of discrete / continuous mixed demand, the main D/C model, which is mainly used in the case of less Telecom Application and does not consider multi service, has established an extended D/C model that joins the nonlinear pricing of mobile communication consumption, multi service and demand uncertainty, and analyzes the corresponding selection probability, conditions and selection. The model theory research and analysis show that the selection probability of a kind of tariff is related to all the pricing factors such as fixed monthly rent, quantity price and free call volume. Life impact. When comparing two kinds of tariff, the user will weigh the income and loss of a certain tariff, and the income depends on the fixed access fee of two kinds of tariff, and the loss depends on the uncertainty of the user's usage and the possibility that the amount of use is beyond the free amount; the higher the user's demand is, the higher the user's use is, the use of the user is beyond the use. The higher the probability of free volume, the more inclined users to choose high free packages or monthly packages.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F224;F274;F626

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