【摘要】：財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是企業(yè)發(fā)展歷程中常見(jiàn)的一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn),其直觀表現(xiàn),簡(jiǎn)而言之,就是企業(yè)償還不了到期債務(wù),其產(chǎn)生的原因與企業(yè)的盈利能力、運(yùn)營(yíng)能力、內(nèi)部控制等多種因素相關(guān)。財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)企業(yè)的危害不言而喻,輕則影響企業(yè)的正常經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng),重則使企業(yè)陷入破產(chǎn)的境地。為了幫助企業(yè)應(yīng)對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),專家學(xué)者們提出了利用相關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型以對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行預(yù)警的這一方法,其根本理論依據(jù)在于:企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的產(chǎn)生不是一蹴而就的,是一個(gè)漸進(jìn)、由多種因素引發(fā)的過(guò)程,所以如果能夠事先發(fā)現(xiàn)并控制好這些因素,那么就有可能將財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的可能性降到最低。本文正是在這一理論基礎(chǔ)之上,將未被大多數(shù)學(xué)者采用的卻經(jīng)研究表明與企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有著密切聯(lián)系的企業(yè)資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量指標(biāo)體系加入財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型的構(gòu)建中,以探討資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量指標(biāo)體系的加入能否提高預(yù)警模型的準(zhǔn)確性。本文大致可以分為理論分析、實(shí)證分析和對(duì)策建議三個(gè)部分。在理論分析部分,本文首先闡述了財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義和常見(jiàn)的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型,以及資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量的相關(guān)定義和資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量評(píng)價(jià)體系,接著說(shuō)明了財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量的關(guān)系或者資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量影響財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的機(jī)理;在實(shí)證分析部分,本文首先對(duì)樣本公司和研究數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了選擇,選取了2010至2013年首次被ST的48家上市公司以及配比的96家正常公司的數(shù)據(jù),依次使用顯著性檢驗(yàn)和共線性診斷,對(duì)初步選擇好的指標(biāo)進(jìn)行層層篩選,以確定用于構(gòu)建邏輯回歸模型的最終指標(biāo),最后利用這些確定好的最終指標(biāo)來(lái)分別構(gòu)建只含常用財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)體系的傳統(tǒng)預(yù)警模型與含有資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量指標(biāo)體系的資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量模型,通過(guò)比較這兩種預(yù)警模型的結(jié)果,發(fā)現(xiàn)資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量指標(biāo)的引入能夠提高財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型的準(zhǔn)確性;在對(duì)策建議部分,本文結(jié)合理論分析與實(shí)證分析,給管理者提供了樹(shù)立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意識(shí)、做好資產(chǎn)管理等建議,以幫助企業(yè)降低財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可能性。
[Abstract]:Financial risk is a common risk in the course of enterprise development, its intuitive performance, in short, the enterprise can not repay the debt due, the reasons are related to the profitability of the enterprise, operational capacity, internal control and other factors. The harm of financial risk to enterprises is self-evident, which affects the normal economic activities of enterprises and makes enterprises fall into bankruptcy. In order to help enterprises deal with financial risk, experts and scholars put forward the method of using relevant financial data to construct financial risk early warning model to early warning financial risk. The fundamental theoretical basis is that the emergence of enterprise financial risk is not achieved overnight, it is a gradual process caused by a variety of factors, so if these factors can be found and controlled in advance, Then it is possible to minimize the likelihood of financial risk. On the basis of this theory, this paper adds the enterprise asset quality index system, which is not adopted by most scholars, which is closely related to the enterprise financial risk, to the construction of the financial risk early warning model, in order to explore whether the addition of the asset quality index system can improve the accuracy of the early warning model. This paper can be divided into three parts: theoretical analysis, empirical analysis and countermeasures and suggestions. In the part of theoretical analysis, this paper first expounds the definition of financial risk and common financial early warning model, as well as the related definitions of asset quality and asset quality evaluation system, and then explains the relationship between financial risk and asset quality or the mechanism of asset quality affecting financial risk. In the part of empirical analysis, this paper first selects the sample companies and research data, selects the data of 48 listed companies and 96 normal companies which were first listed by ST from 2010 to 2013, and uses significance test and collinear diagnosis in turn to screen the selected indicators layer by layer in order to determine the final indicators used to construct the logical regression model. Finally, the traditional early warning model with only common financial index system and the asset quality model with asset quality index system are constructed by using these determined final indexes respectively. by comparing the results of the two early warning models, it is found that the introduction of asset quality index can improve the accuracy of financial risk early warning model. In the part of countermeasures and suggestions, combined with theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper provides managers with suggestions such as establishing risk awareness and doing a good job of asset management, so as to help enterprises reduce the possibility of financial risk.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F275

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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本文編號(hào)：2508078