本文選題：利益相關(guān)者 + 財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)　； 參考：《江蘇師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化步伐的加快,企業(yè)在迎接改革和發(fā)展機(jī)遇的同時(shí),也面臨更加激烈的競爭和更加復(fù)雜的內(nèi)外部環(huán)境,多數(shù)企業(yè)往往面臨的是生存問題,然后才是發(fā)展問題。如何適應(yīng)環(huán)境變化,提高抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力,是擺在企業(yè)管理者面前一個(gè)既現(xiàn)實(shí)又嚴(yán)峻的問題。在這種形勢(shì)下,預(yù)警管理的重要性日益凸顯,企業(yè)信息化水平的提高也為企業(yè)建立預(yù)警體系奠定了基礎(chǔ)。因此,關(guān)于企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的預(yù)警和控制問題成為學(xué)術(shù)界和實(shí)務(wù)界致力研究的重要課題。當(dāng)前國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的研究成果主要集中在各種財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型上,這為財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)研究的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展奠定了良好的基礎(chǔ)。然而傳統(tǒng)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型大多側(cè)重于分析內(nèi)部財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),缺乏從系統(tǒng)全局的角度考慮財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的形成過程,因此,無法從根源上找出企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)的病因所在,也很難為企業(yè)管理者所用。鑒于此,本文從利益相關(guān)者的視角出發(fā),通過分析利益相關(guān)者的行為模式,深入剖析企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)演化的動(dòng)因、演化路徑,并利用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)建模方法建立財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型,最后通過實(shí)例分析驗(yàn)證模型的科學(xué)性和可行性,為企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警管理工作提供理論指導(dǎo)和方法借鑒。本文首先回顧了國內(nèi)外關(guān)于企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的研究現(xiàn)狀,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出本文的研究思路和方法。其次,揭示企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)演化機(jī)理。深入探討利益相關(guān)者行為與企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)之間的邏輯關(guān)聯(lián),在微觀個(gè)體行為和宏觀財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)現(xiàn)象之間建立起聯(lián)系的橋梁,全面系統(tǒng)地分析了導(dǎo)致財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的關(guān)鍵因素以及企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的演化路徑,為研究財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警管理這類復(fù)雜問題提供了新的理論依據(jù)。再次,在Vensim仿真環(huán)境下建立基于利益相關(guān)者的企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警仿真模型。以系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)為工具,注重分析企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)外部結(jié)構(gòu)和變量間因果關(guān)系,全面展示了企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的形成路徑和演化過程。最后,以某造紙企業(yè)為樣本,對(duì)仿真模型進(jìn)行了應(yīng)用,進(jìn)一步驗(yàn)證研究成果的科學(xué)性和可行性。不僅辨識(shí)了財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)因素,還通過敏感性分析為財(cái)務(wù)政策的制定和調(diào)整提供了參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the pace of global economic integration, enterprises are facing more fierce competition and more complex internal and external environment while meeting the opportunities of reform and development. Most enterprises often face survival problems, then development problems. How to adapt to the change of environment and improve the ability to resist risks is a realistic and severe problem for enterprise managers. In this situation, the importance of early warning management is increasingly prominent, and the improvement of enterprise information level has laid a foundation for the establishment of early warning system. Therefore, the problem of early warning and control of enterprise financial crisis has become an important research topic in academic and practical circles. At present, the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars on financial crisis are mainly focused on various financial early-warning models, which has laid a good foundation for the further development of financial crisis research. However, most of the traditional financial early-warning models focus on the analysis of internal financial data, and lack of considering the forming process of financial crisis from the overall perspective of the system. Therefore, it is impossible to find out the cause of enterprise finance from the root. It is also difficult for business managers to use. In view of this, this paper, from the perspective of stakeholders, through the analysis of stakeholder behavior patterns, deeply analyzes the evolution of corporate financial crisis, evolution path, and the use of system dynamics modeling method to establish a financial early warning model. Finally, the model is proved to be scientific and feasible by example analysis, which provides theoretical guidance and method reference for enterprise financial early warning management. Firstly, this paper reviews the current research situation of enterprise financial early warning at home and abroad, and then puts forward the research ideas and methods of this paper. Secondly, it reveals the evolution mechanism of enterprise financial crisis. The logical relationship between stakeholder behavior and corporate financial crisis is discussed, and a bridge between micro individual behavior and macro financial crisis phenomenon is established. The key factors leading to financial crisis and the evolution path of enterprise financial crisis are analyzed in a comprehensive and systematic way, which provides a new theoretical basis for studying such complex problems as financial crisis early-warning management. Thirdly, an enterprise financial crisis early warning simulation model based on stakeholders is established in Vensim simulation environment. With the system dynamics as a tool, the causality between internal and external structure and variables of enterprise financial system is analyzed, and the formation path and evolution process of enterprise financial crisis are demonstrated. Finally, a paper making enterprise as a sample, the simulation model is applied to further verify the scientific and feasibility of the research results. It not only identifies the factors of financial crisis, but also provides a reference for the formulation and adjustment of financial policy through sensitivity analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江蘇師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F275

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