本文選題：財(cái)務(wù)比率 + 財(cái)務(wù)困境　； 參考：《預(yù)測(cè)》2016年05期

【摘要】：本文利用持續(xù)期模型,基于1996~2013年A股上市公司共16000個(gè)公司-年觀測(cè)值,重新估計(jì)了經(jīng)典的Z積分模型、Probit模型以及Beaver等的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型變量對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)困境的解釋作用,研究了我國(guó)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表信息對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)困境預(yù)測(cè)能力的變化情況。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表信息對(duì)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)困境有著重要的解釋力,僅資產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)率和杠桿率兩個(gè)指標(biāo)就足以解釋中國(guó)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)困境,這二者所構(gòu)成的持續(xù)期模型的預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確度達(dá)到了0.98。財(cái)務(wù)比率作為一種分析工具對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)困境有著重要的應(yīng)用價(jià)值,其作用應(yīng)被強(qiáng)調(diào)而不是被降級(jí)。
[Abstract]:Using the duration model, based on the annual observations of 16000 A-share listed companies from 1996 to 2013, this paper reestimated the explanation of financial distress by the classical Z-integral model, probit model, and the risk model variables of Beaver et al. This paper studies the change of financial statement information to financial distress prediction ability of listed companies in China. The empirical results show that the information of financial statements has an important explanatory power to explain the financial distress of enterprises. Only two indicators of asset operating profit rate and leverage ratio can explain the financial distress of listed companies in China. The prediction accuracy of the two models is 0.98. As an analytical tool, financial ratio plays an important role in predicting the financial distress of enterprises, and its function should be emphasized rather than downgraded.
【作者單位】： 華南理工大學(xué)工商管理學(xué)院;廣東外語(yǔ)外貿(mào)大學(xué)會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：廣東省軟科學(xué)研究計(jì)劃資助項(xiàng)目(2014A070703005) 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)資助項(xiàng)目(2015KXKYJ01)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F275
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本文編號(hào)：1777198