本文選題：收益法 + 折現(xiàn)率��； 參考：《深圳大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟(jì)日益迅猛發(fā)展的今天,企業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)化集中的趨勢加劇,通過發(fā)揮資本市場的積極力量,提升了企業(yè)的經(jīng)營格局與市場地位,增強(qiáng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的動力,并成為推動中國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定且持續(xù)發(fā)展的強(qiáng)大助力。隨著國內(nèi)IPO政策收緊,獨立自主上市難度逐步上升,企業(yè)私有化、收購、兼并等企業(yè)重組活動更為頻繁,而如何對企業(yè)資產(chǎn)合理定價成為了重組中最重要的問題之一。目前,市場上將獨立第三方評估機(jī)構(gòu)對標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)的評估報告作為交易定價重要的參考依據(jù)。本文重點結(jié)合2014年與2015年我國上市公司并購重組的評估報告中的數(shù)據(jù),通過使用統(tǒng)計分析對收益法的選用和參數(shù)確定的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,尤其是折現(xiàn)率的模型與各參數(shù)的使用情況。從而發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)企業(yè)自由現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)模型更受到資產(chǎn)評估師青睞;(2)資產(chǎn)評估師主要選擇3至7年左右明確預(yù)測階段;(3)市場風(fēng)險溢價集中在5%至10%之間;(4)特別風(fēng)險調(diào)整系數(shù)?集中于2%至5%之間。然而,在實際應(yīng)用過程中,折現(xiàn)率并未隨著收益額的變動而改變,影響了評估結(jié)果的精確程度,應(yīng)當(dāng)對折現(xiàn)率的計算方法進(jìn)行動態(tài)化的修正。通過使用時間序列預(yù)測的方法,從而計算出動態(tài)折現(xiàn)率的值。并結(jié)合具體案例對修正后的計算方法進(jìn)行驗證。最后,針對收益法的評估過程進(jìn)行總結(jié),發(fā)現(xiàn)收益法存在參數(shù)的自變動性,參數(shù)之間的相互影響以及新興行業(yè)難以評估等三個問題,日后可通過擴(kuò)大研究樣本容量、建立適用于新興行業(yè)的評估體系以及提高資產(chǎn)評估師職業(yè)素養(yǎng)等三個方面對本文改進(jìn)。
[Abstract]:Today, with the rapid economic development, the trend of enterprise industrialization concentration intensifies. By giving full play to the positive force of the capital market, it has enhanced the business structure and market position of the enterprise and enhanced the power of economic development.And become a powerful force to promote China's sustained economic stability and sustainable development.With the tightening of domestic IPO policy, the difficulty of independent listing is gradually increasing, and the activities of enterprise reorganization, such as privatization, acquisition, merger and so on, become more frequent, and how to reasonably price the assets of enterprises becomes one of the most important problems in reorganization.At present, the evaluation report of the underlying assets by the independent third party evaluation agency is regarded as the important reference basis for the transaction pricing in the market.This paper focuses on the analysis of the current situation of income approach selection and parameter determination by using statistical analysis based on the data from the evaluation report on mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in China in 2014 and 2015.In particular, the discount rate model and the use of each parameter.Thus it is found that the discounted free cash flow model of enterprises is more favored by asset appraisers.) the asset appraisers mainly choose three to seven years or so to make a clear forecast stage.) the market risk premium is concentrated in the range of 5% to 10%) and the special risk adjustment coefficient is 4%.Concentrated in the range of 2% to 5%.However, in the practical application process, the discount rate does not change with the change of the return amount, which affects the accuracy of the evaluation results, so the calculation method of the discount rate should be revised dynamically.By using the method of time series prediction, the value of dynamic discount rate is calculated.And combined with specific cases to verify the revised calculation method.Finally, this paper summarizes the evaluation process of income approach, and finds that there are three problems in income approach, such as the self-variation of parameters, the interaction between parameters, and the difficulty in evaluating emerging industries. In the future, we can expand the sample size of the study.This paper is improved from three aspects: establishing an evaluation system suitable for new industries and improving the professional quality of asset appraisers.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：深圳大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.51;F271;F275

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