本文關(guān)鍵詞： 地方官員 企業(yè) 生存分析　出處：《中國(guó)工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)》2017年01期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

【摘要】：由于中國(guó)地方政府對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)大影響力,政府官員變更可能會(huì)影響當(dāng)?shù)夭糠制髽I(yè)的生存與發(fā)展。其中的影響機(jī)制有:政策不連續(xù)性、官員貪腐行為以及政企關(guān)系重新調(diào)整等。為此,本文收集了中國(guó)1999—2009年2000多任地級(jí)市市長(zhǎng)和市委書(shū)記的數(shù)據(jù),并與轄區(qū)內(nèi)的企業(yè)匹配來(lái)識(shí)別地方官員對(duì)企業(yè)生存的影響。運(yùn)用Kaplan-Meier乘積限估計(jì)方法繪制的生存函數(shù)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)函數(shù)圖顯示,官員變更時(shí)企業(yè)的生存時(shí)間更短、倒閉風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高。在此基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用生存分析模型進(jìn)行更為精確的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):官員變更會(huì)顯著增加企業(yè)的倒閉風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且這一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在多期滯后效應(yīng);但官員變更引致的退出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在不同所有制企業(yè)之間有所不同,其中,對(duì)國(guó)有企業(yè)、尤其是非中央國(guó)有企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加尤為明顯;任期的穩(wěn)定有助于降低企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且任期對(duì)官員變更導(dǎo)致的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有調(diào)節(jié)作用。本文還特別關(guān)注了官員自身特征對(duì)變更引致風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)本地晉升的官員、在出生地任職的官員、學(xué)歷水平較高的官員引致的企業(yè)倒閉風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低。本研究為如何降低官員變更引發(fā)的企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供了具有可行性的決策依據(jù),同時(shí)為科學(xué)制定官員選拔和任用制度提供了有益的政策啟示。
[Abstract]:Because of the strong influence of Chinese local governments on the economy, the change of government officials may affect the survival and development of some local enterprises. Official corruption and readjustment of the relationship between government and enterprise. For this reason, this paper collected data on more than 2000 prefecture-level mayors and party secretaries in China from 1999 to 2009. The survival function and risk function chart drawn by the Kaplan-Meier product limit estimation method show that the survival time of the enterprise is shorter when the officials change. The risk of bankruptcy is higher. On this basis, the survival analysis model is used to carry out more accurate empirical test. The results show that: the change of officials will significantly increase the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises, and this risk has a multi-period lag effect; However, the exit risk caused by the change of officials is different among different ownership enterprises, among which, the increase of risks to state-owned enterprises, especially non-central state-owned enterprises, is particularly obvious; the stability of tenure helps to reduce the operating risks of enterprises. And the term of office has a moderating effect on the risk caused by the change of officials. This paper also pays special attention to the influence of the characteristics of the official on the risk caused by the change. It is found that the local promoted official, the official in the place of birth, the official in the place of birth, The risk of enterprise failure caused by higher education level officials is lower. This study provides a feasible decision basis for how to reduce the risk of enterprise operation caused by the change of officials. At the same time, it provides a beneficial policy inspiration for the scientific formulation of the system of selecting and appointing officials.
【作者單位】： 大連理工大學(xué)管理與經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)部;合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金一般項(xiàng)目“瓊斯批評(píng)后研發(fā)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的再討論及中國(guó)穩(wěn)態(tài)增長(zhǎng)路徑構(gòu)建”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào)15BJL010) 遼寧省社會(huì)科學(xué)基金一般項(xiàng)目“企業(yè)工資決定機(jī)制”(批準(zhǔn)號(hào)L11BJY007)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D630;F279.27
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本文編號(hào)：1525096