【摘要】：隨著我國城市化進(jìn)程的加快,城市規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)張,加上住宅產(chǎn)品的異質(zhì)性特點,城市內(nèi)部住宅子市場逐漸形成且日益凸顯。在不同的子市場中,無論是最終的房價還是影響房價的內(nèi)外因素都存在差異,如果忽略這些差異,會使得我們的規(guī)劃、決策、評估等相關(guān)工作建立在不完全的信息基礎(chǔ)之上,得出錯誤的結(jié)論。多角度、深層次地認(rèn)識住宅子市場現(xiàn)象,充分挖掘城市住宅市場信息是本研究的目的之一 房價高居不下,物業(yè)稅久未推廣,其中一大技術(shù)難題是稅基的確定。由于傳統(tǒng)的評估方法存在缺陷,難以在短時間內(nèi)對住宅進(jìn)行大批量地評估。本研究的另一目的是嘗試以杭州市為例,結(jié)合GIS技術(shù)以及城市住宅子市場信息,通過特征價格模型、空間計量模型等批量評估技術(shù),建立一套客觀高效且適宜于杭州市的住宅價格評估體系。 本文的主要工作和結(jié)論有： (1)系統(tǒng)梳理了區(qū)位理論、特征價格理論以及住宅子市場理論,本文研究的重點是對住宅市場的細(xì)分以及評估效果的比較,所以在文獻(xiàn)梳理的過程中重點總結(jié)了住宅子市場劃分方法以及住宅價格評估比較的方法。本文結(jié)合杭州市六大主城區(qū)2011年和2012年的數(shù)據(jù)資料,選取了涵蓋建筑特征、鄰里特征和區(qū)位特征的12個因素作為研究的變量并對其進(jìn)行量化和處理。 (2)基于景觀CBD、城市河流-交通要道分布兩個視角對杭州市住宅市場進(jìn)行空間層面的劃分以及采用聚類分析方法進(jìn)行非空間層面的劃分,得到圈層、網(wǎng)狀以及非空間聚類這三種不同類型的子市場結(jié)構(gòu)；并通過Chow檢驗證明了這三大類住宅子市場的顯著性。結(jié)論表明杭州市住宅市場存在多種空間和非空間的子市場結(jié)構(gòu)。 (3)基于整體市場以及各子市場分別構(gòu)建了特征價格模型,并采用評估精度檢驗的方法分別比較了在同類子市場結(jié)構(gòu)中劃分前后的評估效果,同時也比較了這三類子市場結(jié)構(gòu)的整體市場評估效果。結(jié)論表明：劃分后的各子市場模型的評估效果在統(tǒng)計意義上顯著高于劃分前的整體市場；就整體市場而言,評估效果最好的是網(wǎng)狀結(jié)構(gòu)市場模型,其次是聚類市場模型,最后是圈層結(jié)構(gòu)市場模型。 (4)通過傳統(tǒng)特征價格模型和空間計量模型的構(gòu)建與比較,建立杭州市基準(zhǔn)價格評估模型。分析中發(fā)現(xiàn)空間計量模型的估計效果優(yōu)于傳統(tǒng)特征價格模型,SEM模型的估計效果要優(yōu)于SLM模型。最后結(jié)合杭州市住宅子市場信息對基準(zhǔn)評估模型進(jìn)行修正,得到適宜于杭州市的住宅價格評估體系。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization in China, the expansion of urban scale, and the heterogeneity of residential products, the sub-market of urban housing has gradually formed and become increasingly prominent. In different sub-markets, there are differences in both the final house price and the internal and external factors that affect the house price. If we ignore these differences, we will base our planning, decision making, evaluation and other related work on incomplete information. Come to a wrong conclusion. It is one of the purposes of this study to understand the phenomenon of housing sub-market from many angles and to fully excavate the information of urban housing market. The property tax has not been popularized for a long time. One of the major technical problems is the determination of tax base. Because of the defects of the traditional evaluation methods, it is difficult to evaluate the housing in large quantities in a short time. Another purpose of this study is to try to take Hangzhou as an example, combining GIS technology and sub-market information of urban housing, through the characteristic price model, spatial measurement model and other batch evaluation technology. To establish a set of objective and efficient housing price evaluation system suitable for Hangzhou. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) systematically combing the location theory, characteristic price theory and housing sub-market theory. Therefore, in the process of literature combing, the paper summarizes the method of submarket division and the method of housing price evaluation and comparison. Based on the data of the six major urban areas of Hangzhou in 2011 and 2012, this paper selects the architectural features. (2) based on landscape CBD, the distribution of urban rivers and traffic lanes is used to analyze the housing market in Hangzhou. (2) based on landscape CBD, the distribution of urban rivers and traffic lanes is used to analyze the residential market in Hangzhou City from the perspective of 12 factors of neighborhood characteristics and location characteristics. The division of surface and the division of non-spatial level by cluster analysis. Three different types of submarket structures are obtained: ring, mesh and non-spatial clustering, and the significance of these three submarkets is proved by Chow's test. The conclusion shows that there are many spatial and non-spatial submarket structures in Hangzhou housing market. (3) based on the whole market and each sub-market, the characteristic price model is constructed. The evaluation effect before and after dividing the same sub-market structure is compared by using the method of evaluation precision test, and the overall market evaluation effect of these three sub-market structures is also compared. The results show that the evaluation effect of each sub-market model after division is statistically higher than that of the whole market before the division, and the best one is the net-structure market model, followed by the cluster market model, as far as the overall market is concerned. Finally, the ring structure market model. (4) through the construction and comparison of the traditional characteristic price model and the spatial measurement model, the Hangzhou benchmark price evaluation model is established. It is found that the estimation effect of the spatial measurement model is better than that of the traditional feature price model and the SEM model is better than the SLM model. Finally, based on the information of housing sub-market in Hangzhou, the benchmark evaluation model is revised, and the housing price evaluation system suitable for Hangzhou is obtained.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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