業(yè)績預(yù)告與前期準(zhǔn)確性的市場反應(yīng)研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-13 16:26
【摘要】：會計信息作為投資者了解公司情況的主要依據(jù)，在資本市場上起著至關(guān)重要的作用。維護(hù)信息的公平公正、提高信息效率是保護(hù)投資者的關(guān)鍵，業(yè)績預(yù)告作為年報的有益補(bǔ)充，旨在緩解年度報告時滯性帶來的信息不對稱，，保護(hù)投資者利益。現(xiàn)有的研究通常認(rèn)為業(yè)績預(yù)告具有一定的信息含量，能帶來市場反應(yīng)，但業(yè)績預(yù)告始終是管理層單方面披露出來的，未經(jīng)過外部第三方的審計，因此預(yù)告可信度就值得懷疑。公司前期的預(yù)告行為會傳遞出管理層預(yù)告能力與預(yù)告信譽(yù)的信號，投資者是否能根據(jù)公司前期預(yù)告準(zhǔn)確性調(diào)整當(dāng)期預(yù)告可信度的預(yù)期，并做出反應(yīng)是一個值得研究的問題。 本文以我國A股上市公司2009年-2012年符合條件的898個年度業(yè)績預(yù)告為樣本，利用SPSS及Eviews統(tǒng)計軟件，通過事件研究及回歸分析的方法檢驗我國股市業(yè)績預(yù)告的市場反應(yīng)以及前期業(yè)績預(yù)告的準(zhǔn)確性對當(dāng)期業(yè)績預(yù)告市場反應(yīng)的影響。研究結(jié)論表明，業(yè)績預(yù)告具有信息含量，能帶來市場反應(yīng)。預(yù)告為好消息的公司在預(yù)告發(fā)布的前后一定時間內(nèi)有顯著為正的異常報酬率，預(yù)告為壞消息的公司在預(yù)告發(fā)布前后一定時間內(nèi)有顯著為負(fù)的異常報酬率。進(jìn)一步的，本文引入公司前期預(yù)告準(zhǔn)確性這一因素，以公司過去兩年業(yè)績預(yù)告的平均偏差為預(yù)告準(zhǔn)確性衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，考察公司前期預(yù)告準(zhǔn)確性對預(yù)告的市場反應(yīng)的影響，結(jié)果顯示，對于當(dāng)期預(yù)告為好消息的公司，前期預(yù)告準(zhǔn)確性對當(dāng)期的市場反應(yīng)有影響，前期預(yù)告偏差率大，對當(dāng)期預(yù)告反應(yīng)的削弱效應(yīng)強(qiáng)，說明投資者能在公司當(dāng)期預(yù)告的基礎(chǔ)之上，通過前期預(yù)告準(zhǔn)確性而對公司預(yù)告可信度做修正，進(jìn)而影響到股票市場的反應(yīng)。而對于預(yù)告為壞消息的公司，前期預(yù)告準(zhǔn)確性對當(dāng)期預(yù)告的市場反應(yīng)沒有顯著影響，投資者僅對公司當(dāng)期業(yè)績下滑這一預(yù)告信息做出反應(yīng)，而不會綜合考慮前期預(yù)告的準(zhǔn)確性。這一實證結(jié)果表明，公司業(yè)績預(yù)告的確向資本市場傳遞了有用的信息，同時前期預(yù)告準(zhǔn)確性會影響當(dāng)期預(yù)告的市場反應(yīng)程度。 鑒于在我國的資本市場上，投資者會透過公司前期預(yù)告行為評判公司當(dāng)期預(yù)告是否可信，并做出一定程度的反應(yīng)，這提醒管理層在進(jìn)行業(yè)績預(yù)告時應(yīng)本著謹(jǐn)慎的態(tài)度，而不是為追求短期既得利益披露不實的預(yù)告。對于證券監(jiān)管部門而言，應(yīng)加強(qiáng)監(jiān)督，關(guān)注公司業(yè)績預(yù)告披露質(zhì)量，對不實披露制定有效的處罰措施，以此保障投資者利益，確保證券市場有序運行。
[Abstract]:As the main basis for investors to understand the company, accounting information plays an important role in the capital market. The key to protect investors is to maintain the fairness and fairness of information and to improve information efficiency. As a beneficial supplement to the annual report, the performance forecast aims to alleviate the information asymmetry caused by the delay of annual report and protect the interests of investors. The existing research usually thinks that the performance forecast has certain information content and can bring market reaction, but the performance forecast is always disclosed by the management unilaterally, and has not been audited by the external third party, so the credibility of the forecast is doubtful. The pre-forecast behavior of the company will send the signal of the management's forecasting ability and reputation. Whether the investor can adjust the forecast of the forecasting credibility according to the accuracy of the pre-forecast and make a response is a question worth studying. In this paper, we use SPSS and Eviews statistical software to sample 898 annual performance forecasts of A-share listed companies in China from 2009 to 2012. Through the methods of event study and regression analysis, the paper examines the market reaction of stock market performance forecast and the influence of the accuracy of early performance forecast on the market reaction of current performance forecast. The results show that performance forecasting has information content and can bring about market reaction. Companies with good news have significantly positive abnormal returns within a certain period of time before and after the advance announcement, and companies with bad news have significantly negative abnormal returns within a certain period of time before and after the advance announcement. Furthermore, this paper introduces the factor of the accuracy of the company's advance forecast, taking the average deviation of the company's performance forecast as the criterion of the accuracy of the forecast in the past two years, to investigate the influence of the accuracy of the company's advance forecast on the market reaction of the forecast. The results show that for companies with good news in the current period, the accuracy of the advance forecast has an impact on the market reaction in the current period, and the deviation rate of the advance forecast is large, and the weakening effect on the current forecast response is strong. It shows that the investors can modify the credibility of the company through the accuracy of the advance forecast on the basis of the current forecast of the company, and then affect the reaction of the stock market. For the company with bad news, the accuracy of the advance forecast has no significant effect on the market reaction of the current forecast. Investors only react to the forecast information of the company's current performance decline, and do not consider the accuracy of the advance forecast comprehensively. The empirical results show that the performance forecast does convey useful information to the capital market, and the accuracy of the advance forecast will affect the market reaction degree of the current forecast. In view of the fact that in the capital market of our country, investors will judge whether the company's current forecast is credible or not and make a certain degree of response through the company's pre-forecast behavior, which reminds the management to be cautious when making the performance forecast. Instead of disclosing false forecasts in pursuit of short-term vested interests. To the securities supervision department, we should strengthen the supervision, pay close attention to the quality of the company's performance forecast disclosure, and make effective punishment measures for the false disclosure, so as to protect the interests of the investors and ensure the orderly operation of the securities market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F275
本文編號：2120034
[Abstract]:As the main basis for investors to understand the company, accounting information plays an important role in the capital market. The key to protect investors is to maintain the fairness and fairness of information and to improve information efficiency. As a beneficial supplement to the annual report, the performance forecast aims to alleviate the information asymmetry caused by the delay of annual report and protect the interests of investors. The existing research usually thinks that the performance forecast has certain information content and can bring market reaction, but the performance forecast is always disclosed by the management unilaterally, and has not been audited by the external third party, so the credibility of the forecast is doubtful. The pre-forecast behavior of the company will send the signal of the management's forecasting ability and reputation. Whether the investor can adjust the forecast of the forecasting credibility according to the accuracy of the pre-forecast and make a response is a question worth studying. In this paper, we use SPSS and Eviews statistical software to sample 898 annual performance forecasts of A-share listed companies in China from 2009 to 2012. Through the methods of event study and regression analysis, the paper examines the market reaction of stock market performance forecast and the influence of the accuracy of early performance forecast on the market reaction of current performance forecast. The results show that performance forecasting has information content and can bring about market reaction. Companies with good news have significantly positive abnormal returns within a certain period of time before and after the advance announcement, and companies with bad news have significantly negative abnormal returns within a certain period of time before and after the advance announcement. Furthermore, this paper introduces the factor of the accuracy of the company's advance forecast, taking the average deviation of the company's performance forecast as the criterion of the accuracy of the forecast in the past two years, to investigate the influence of the accuracy of the company's advance forecast on the market reaction of the forecast. The results show that for companies with good news in the current period, the accuracy of the advance forecast has an impact on the market reaction in the current period, and the deviation rate of the advance forecast is large, and the weakening effect on the current forecast response is strong. It shows that the investors can modify the credibility of the company through the accuracy of the advance forecast on the basis of the current forecast of the company, and then affect the reaction of the stock market. For the company with bad news, the accuracy of the advance forecast has no significant effect on the market reaction of the current forecast. Investors only react to the forecast information of the company's current performance decline, and do not consider the accuracy of the advance forecast comprehensively. The empirical results show that the performance forecast does convey useful information to the capital market, and the accuracy of the advance forecast will affect the market reaction degree of the current forecast. In view of the fact that in the capital market of our country, investors will judge whether the company's current forecast is credible or not and make a certain degree of response through the company's pre-forecast behavior, which reminds the management to be cautious when making the performance forecast. Instead of disclosing false forecasts in pursuit of short-term vested interests. To the securities supervision department, we should strengthen the supervision, pay close attention to the quality of the company's performance forecast disclosure, and make effective punishment measures for the false disclosure, so as to protect the interests of the investors and ensure the orderly operation of the securities market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F275
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