本文選題：私募股權(quán) + 投資項(xiàng)目�。� 參考：《河北工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近十年來(lái)，私募股權(quán)在中國(guó)從不為人知的資本游戲逐漸變?yōu)槿巳硕枷氩迳弦皇值纳虡I(yè)模式。由于私募股權(quán)具有責(zé)任明確、稅收優(yōu)惠等特點(diǎn)，在中國(guó)近幾年的商業(yè)模式中最為璀璨奪目。它是一種引導(dǎo)社會(huì)資源優(yōu)化配置的、倡導(dǎo)有錢出錢有力出力的合作模式，并且能夠促進(jìn)社會(huì)提高效率和實(shí)現(xiàn)公平。在我國(guó)，對(duì)私募股權(quán)各方面展開(kāi)的研究尚且不足，特別是該種投資方式績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)方面的研究。而這一問(wèn)題卻恰恰對(duì)投融資雙方的決策行為具有重大的指導(dǎo)意義。為了給投資融資雙方的項(xiàng)目選擇予以對(duì)比標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，讓其將資本發(fā)揮最大作用，因此本文的研究對(duì)象選定為私募股權(quán)投資項(xiàng)目績(jī)效。 本文用2000年～2010年經(jīng)CVSource收錄的1371個(gè)退出項(xiàng)目數(shù)據(jù)作為基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)，，將其按照退出時(shí)間分為24組時(shí)間序列，匯總每組的賬面收益率、內(nèi)部收益率、累計(jì)投資金額。然后運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)中的多元回歸、時(shí)間序列分解、自回歸移動(dòng)平均這三大方法構(gòu)建模型，對(duì)私募股權(quán)投資項(xiàng)目績(jī)效進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的分析。 論文分為五個(gè)部分。第一章緒論，對(duì)本文研究背景及意義、研究現(xiàn)狀、研究?jī)?nèi)容和方法、創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)等進(jìn)行闡述。第二章私募股權(quán)投資理論基礎(chǔ)，對(duì)私募股權(quán)投資基本定義、私募股權(quán)資本的分類、私募股權(quán)的主要特點(diǎn)、私募股權(quán)市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)與投資流程等相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行了概述。第三章私募股權(quán)投資項(xiàng)目績(jī)效分析，分為私募股權(quán)投資項(xiàng)目績(jī)效微觀決定因素、私募股權(quán)投資項(xiàng)目績(jī)效宏觀決定因素、績(jī)效衡量指標(biāo)選擇三部分。第四章私募股權(quán)投資項(xiàng)目績(jī)效實(shí)證研究，先結(jié)合上章分析得出研究假設(shè)，再分別運(yùn)用多元回歸模型、時(shí)間序列分解模型、自回歸移動(dòng)平均模型從影響因素、波動(dòng)周期、自相關(guān)三方面對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析，并得出結(jié)論。第五章結(jié)論與展望，對(duì)全文的研究?jī)?nèi)容行總結(jié)，分析進(jìn)一步的研究方向。 本文研究得出的主要結(jié)論有：私募股權(quán)投資項(xiàng)目的內(nèi)部收益率整體趨勢(shì)是逐年略微下降，平均每半年降低3.36個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；私募股權(quán)投資項(xiàng)目的內(nèi)部收益率波動(dòng)周期為五年半，在這11個(gè)半年之中共有7次下降4次回升；某時(shí)間段(半年)私募股權(quán)投資項(xiàng)目退出的內(nèi)部收益率與半年前的內(nèi)部收益率正相關(guān)，與一年前內(nèi)部收益率負(fù)相關(guān)；私募股權(quán)投資項(xiàng)目退出的內(nèi)部收益率與同期人均國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值指數(shù)、貨幣準(zhǔn)貨幣供應(yīng)量同比增長(zhǎng)率、投資周期、投資金額負(fù)相關(guān)，與上證收盤指數(shù)和IPO退出概率的乘積正相關(guān)。
[Abstract]:Over the past decade, private equity in China has gone from an unknown capital game to a business model where everyone wants to get a hand in it. Private equity is the most brilliant business model in China in recent years because of its clear responsibility and preferential tax. It is a kind of guiding social resources optimal allocation, advocates the cooperation mode which has the money and the strength, and can promote the society to improve the efficiency and realize the fairness. In our country, the research on various aspects of private equity is still insufficient, especially the performance evaluation of this kind of investment. However, this problem is of great significance to the decision-making behavior of both parties. In order to compare the project selection between the two parties and make the capital play the most important role, the research object of this paper is the private equity investment project performance. Based on the data of 1371 exit items collected by CVSource from 2000 to 2010, this paper divides them into 24 groups of time series according to the withdrawal time, and summarizes the book return rate, internal rate of return and accumulated investment amount of each group. Then we use the methods of multivariate regression, time series decomposition and autoregressive moving average to construct the model and analyze the performance of private equity investment projects systematically. The paper is divided into five parts. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of this study, research status, research content and methods, innovation points. The second chapter is the theoretical basis of private equity investment, the basic definition of private equity investment, the classification of private equity capital, the main characteristics of private equity, the structure of private equity market and investment process. The third chapter is the performance analysis of private equity investment projects, which is divided into three parts: micro determinants of private equity investment performance, macro determinants of private equity investment performance and selection of performance measurement indicators. Chapter 4 empirical study of private equity investment project performance, combining with the previous chapter analysis to obtain the research hypothesis, then use multiple regression model, time series decomposition model, autoregressive moving average model from the impact factors, volatility period. The data are analyzed from three aspects of autocorrelation, and the conclusion is drawn. Chapter 5: conclusion and prospect, summarize the research content of this paper, and analyze the further research direction. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: the overall trend of the internal yield of private equity investment projects is a slight decline year by year, the average is 3.36 percentage points lower every six months, the fluctuation cycle of private equity investment projects' internal returns is five and a half years. In the 11 six months, there are 7 times of decline and 4 times of recovery. The internal rate of return of private equity investment project exit in a certain period (half a year) is positively correlated with the internal rate of return half a year ago, and negatively correlated with the internal rate of return one year ago. The internal yield of private equity project exit is negatively correlated with GDP per capita, money supply growth rate, investment cycle, investment amount, and the product of Shanghai closing index and IPO exit probability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

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