本文選題：建設(shè)用地擴張 + 庫茲涅茨曲線　； 參考：《西南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：工業(yè)革命以后,人類的經(jīng)濟有了質(zhì)的飛躍,環(huán)境相繼日益惡化,CO2的排放逐漸提上日程,在哥本哈根會議上,各國達成協(xié)議,減少碳排放,其中斯德哥爾摩承諾在2025年去除所有化石燃料供給,成為零碳城市。由此可見,因溫室氣體導(dǎo)致的溫室效應(yīng),已成為當(dāng)前各國和全社會共同關(guān)注的熱點問題之一。 本論文基于重慶市1998-2012年的土地利用變更數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查和能源消耗數(shù)據(jù),分析了重慶市15年間建設(shè)用地擴張及碳排放特征,構(gòu)建了建設(shè)用地比例與碳排放強度之間的庫茲涅茨曲線模型對重慶市建設(shè)用地擴張與碳排放效應(yīng)之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系進行了實證研究,嘗試驗證庫茲涅茨曲線在建設(shè)用地擴張與碳排放強度之間的存在性。結(jié)果表明： (1)在二級地類中,城市用地面積和建制鎮(zhèn)用地而積迅速上升,在2009年二者上升幅度最大,其中城市用地的變化速度和變化幅度均較明顯；農(nóng)村居民點用地逐年下降,且變化較小;其他建設(shè)用地的變化幅度和變化速度相較于其他的地類來說均較小。 (2)建設(shè)用地總量在1998-2012年間持續(xù)增長,絕對增長140998.65hm2,年均增長9399.91hm2,在此期間,碳排放量和碳排放強度逐年呈增長態(tài)勢,碳排放絕對增長量為3680.24萬tC/t,年均增長量為262.87萬tC/t。 (3)建設(shè)用地總量與碳排放強度之間存在著“正U”型的庫茲涅茨曲線關(guān)系,并且處于U型的右半部分,即目前隨著重慶市建設(shè)用地的擴大,碳排放強度在不斷加強,拐點還未到來。 (4)碳排放強度與城市用地,建制鎮(zhèn)用地之間呈倒‘“U”型曲線關(guān)系,農(nóng)村居民點用地與碳排放強度之間呈負相關(guān)線性關(guān)系,而其他建設(shè)用地與碳排放強度之間呈不明顯的庫茲涅茨曲線關(guān)系。 (5)都市功能核心區(qū)、都市功能拓展區(qū)、城市發(fā)展新區(qū)、渝東南生態(tài)保護區(qū)、渝東北生態(tài)涵養(yǎng)區(qū)的碳排放量和碳排放強度在15年間均有不同程度的增長。其中城市發(fā)展新區(qū)的碳排放量和碳排放強度增加最多,2012年碳排放量為3215.08萬tC/t,15年間增加了4倍多,占總碳排放量的比重增加了12.42%,口前成為重慶市碳排放增加的主要助推器。 (6)都市功能核心區(qū)、都市功能拓展區(qū)建設(shè)用地分別與碳排放強度之間存在“倒U”型的庫茲涅茨曲線關(guān)系,并且拐點已經(jīng)來臨。城市發(fā)展新區(qū)、渝東南生態(tài)保護區(qū)、渝東北生態(tài)涵養(yǎng)區(qū)建設(shè)用地與碳排放之間不存在庫茲涅茨曲線關(guān)系。 (7)重慶市建設(shè)用地總量與碳排放強度沒有與預(yù)期的一樣呈“倒U,”型曲線的關(guān)系,經(jīng)分析,存在三個原因：一是農(nóng)村居民點這一地類的特殊性,外在的地類轉(zhuǎn)換和內(nèi)在承載的人口都會影響碳排放的情況；二是其他建設(shè)用地與碳排放強度之間無明顯的曲線關(guān)系。三是城市發(fā)展新區(qū)、渝東南生態(tài)保護區(qū)、渝東北生態(tài)涵養(yǎng)區(qū)的建設(shè)用地擴張無序,導(dǎo)致其與碳排放強度之間并不存在明顯的庫茲涅茨曲線關(guān)系。三者的不確定性共同影響了建設(shè)用地總量與碳排放強度的曲線關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:After the industrial revolution, the human economy has made a qualitative leap, the environment has worsened, and the emission of CO2 has gradually been put on the agenda. At the Copenhagen conference, countries reached agreement to reduce carbon emissions, in which Stockholm promised to remove all fossil fuel supply in 2025 and become a zero carbon city. Thus, greenhouse gas led greenhouses The effect has become one of the hot topics in the world and the whole society.
Based on the land use change data survey and energy consumption data of 1998-2012 years in Chongqing, this paper analyses the characteristics of construction land expansion and carbon emission in Chongqing in the past 15 years, and constructs the correlation between the Kuznets curve model between the construction land ratio and the carbon emission intensity between the construction land expansion and the carbon emission effect in Chongqing. An empirical study was carried out to verify the existence of Kuznets curve in the relationship between the expansion of construction land and carbon emission intensity.
(1) in the class two, the area of urban land and the land used for the construction of towns and towns rose rapidly. In 2009, the two people went up the most, and the speed and change range of the urban land use was obvious; the rural residential land use land declined year by year, and the change was smaller. The change range and change speed of other construction land were compared to other types of land. It is smaller.
(2) the total amount of construction land increased continuously in 1998-2012 years, the absolute growth of 140998.65hm2, the annual growth of 9399.91hm2. During this period, the carbon emission and carbon emission intensity increased year by year, the absolute growth of carbon emissions was 36 million 802 thousand and 400 tC/t, and the annual average growth was 2 million 628 thousand and 700 tC/t.
(3) there is a "positive U" type Kuznets curve relationship between the total amount of construction land and the intensity of carbon emissions, and in the right half of the U type, that is, with the expansion of the construction land in Chongqing, the intensity of carbon emission is constantly strengthened and the turning point has not yet come.
(4) the relationship between the carbon emission intensity and the urban land, the "U" curve between the urban land use and the town land, the relationship between the rural residential land and the carbon emission intensity is negatively correlated, while the relationship between the other construction land and the carbon emission intensity is not obvious Kuznets curve.
(5) the carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of the ecological conservation areas in the northeast of Chongqing have increased in 15 years. The carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of the new urban development areas increased most, and the carbon emissions were 32 million 150 thousand and 800 tC/t in 2012 and 15 years in the year of 2012. The proportion increased by more than 4 times, and the proportion of total carbon emissions increased by 12.42%, which became the main booster of Chongqing's carbon emissions increase.
(6) the urban functional core area, the "inverted U" type Kuznets curve relationship between the urban functional development area and the carbon emission intensity, and the turning point has come. There is no Kuznets curve relationship between the urban development new area, the Southeast Chongqing ecological protection area, the construction land of the ecological conservation area in Northeast Chongqing and the carbon emissions.
(7) the relationship between the total amount of construction land and the carbon emission intensity in Chongqing is not as expected as the "inverted U," curve. After analysis, there are three reasons: first, the particularity of the rural residential areas, the external land conversion and the inner bearing population will affect the carbon emission; two is the other construction land and carbon emissions. There is no obvious curve relationship between the degree of the urban development, three is the new urban development area, the Southeast Chongqing ecological protection area, the construction land of the ecological conservation area in Northeast Chongqing is expanded and disorderly, and there is no obvious Kuznets curve relationship between its carbon emission intensity. The uncertainty of the three is a common influence on the curve of the total amount of construction land and the carbon emission intensity. Department.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;X24

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