基于經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間相互作用的中國(guó)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)特性分析
本文選題:經(jīng)濟(jì)體相互作用 + 資產(chǎn)價(jià)格 ; 參考:《華北水利水電大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文
【摘要】:大類(lèi)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)是一經(jīng)濟(jì)體社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化、政策等因素共同作用的結(jié)果,無(wú)論是對(duì)于國(guó)家政策制定、監(jiān)測(cè)者還是投資人來(lái)說(shuō),資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)特性都有著舉足輕重的意義。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化持續(xù)深度發(fā)展帶來(lái)的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的全球化和生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)分工的細(xì)化、科技與信息技術(shù)進(jìn)一步發(fā)達(dá)帶來(lái)的資本在全球范圍內(nèi)流動(dòng)暢通性持續(xù)的加強(qiáng),中國(guó)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)特性也越來(lái)越多染上全球化影響的顏色?偭可蟻(lái)說(shuō):不同經(jīng)濟(jì)體景氣程度通過(guò)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈相互作用,呈現(xiàn)出同步、聯(lián)動(dòng)、傳導(dǎo)等大體協(xié)同的關(guān)系,但由于政策、金融資產(chǎn)的博弈性質(zhì),經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間的相互作用最終結(jié)果并不完全體現(xiàn)為周期的傳導(dǎo),而是相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)蹺蹺板效應(yīng)與追隨趨同效應(yīng)的交替出現(xiàn),對(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)特性造成干擾。[4]內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)上來(lái)說(shuō):經(jīng)濟(jì)體自身發(fā)展階段與其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體的相對(duì)關(guān)系會(huì)影響到產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈分工優(yōu)勢(shì)地位的不同,從而引發(fā)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈環(huán)節(jié)內(nèi)資本在不同經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間的選擇與流動(dòng),帶來(lái)產(chǎn)業(yè)的興盛與衰退,導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)體增長(zhǎng)方式和內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷,進(jìn)而帶來(lái)資本流入環(huán)節(jié)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈或產(chǎn)業(yè)角色的投資機(jī)會(huì)。本文基于對(duì)總量和內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)特性分析,將經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間相互作用、大類(lèi)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格特性通過(guò)兩者的共同經(jīng)濟(jì)因素聯(lián)系起來(lái),通過(guò)理論分析邏輯推演得到影響因素的作用機(jī)理,而后提取典型的表觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),通過(guò)對(duì)比分析、實(shí)證研究等方法進(jìn)一步確認(rèn)邏輯推導(dǎo)的正確性;谖恼陆Y(jié)論嘗試給出投資配置的建議。
[Abstract]:Fluctuations in the prices of large categories of assets are the result of a combination of social, economic, cultural, policy and other factors in an economy, whether for national policy formulation, monitors or investors, The characteristics of asset price fluctuation are of great significance. With the globalization of the industrial chain and the refinement of the division of labor in the production links brought about by the sustained and deep development of economic globalization, the capital flowing smoothly in the global scope has been continuously strengthened due to the further development of science and technology and information technology. The volatility of asset prices in China is also becoming more and more global in color. In terms of total amount, the prosperity of different economies is affected by the interaction of industry chains, showing a general synergistic relationship, such as synchronization, linkage, transmission, etc., but due to the policy, the nature of the game of financial assets, The final result of the interaction between economies is not only the transmission of cycles, but also the alternating appearance of seesaw effect and follow convergence effect. Interference with the volatility of asset prices. [4] in terms of internal structure, the relative relationship between the stage of the economy's own development and that of other economies will affect the differences in the dominant position of the division of labour in the industrial chain, This will lead to the choice and flow of capital among different economies in the industrial chain, the prosperity and recession of industry, and the change of the growth mode and internal structure of the economy. In turn, it brings the investment opportunity of the industry chain or industry role. Based on the analysis of the total amount and internal structural characteristics, this paper links the interaction between economies and the price characteristics of a large class of assets through the common economic factors of both, and obtains the mechanism of the influencing factors by theoretical analysis and logical deduction. Then the typical apparent economic indicators are extracted, and the correctness of logical derivation is further confirmed by comparative analysis, empirical research and other methods. Based on the conclusion of this paper, the author tries to give some suggestions on investment allocation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:華北水利水電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】:F832.51;F299.23;F724.5
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