本文選題：信貸決策 + 財務(wù)分析��； 參考：《西安工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文研究的內(nèi)容是銀行信貸決策的改進研究。銀行是以風險為經(jīng)營商品的特殊行業(yè),也是競爭性極強的行業(yè),其核心競爭力集中反映在風險的掌控能力上,而風險的防范與把控都與信貸決策息息相關(guān),銀行信貸人員的決策過程關(guān)系到以后銀行信貸資產(chǎn)是否能夠安全回收,只有更全面的去考核借款企業(yè)的各項指標,包含財務(wù)報表指標、財務(wù)非報表指標、非財務(wù)因素及信用因素等,才能對信貸資產(chǎn)的安全性做出風險衡量和評級。傳統(tǒng)的信貸決策過程主要是借助于定量分析和定性分析為主,即企業(yè)的財務(wù)指標外加信貸決策人員的經(jīng)驗判斷來形成最終的信貸決策結(jié)論,現(xiàn)實操作中,由于信息的不對稱,信貸人員在做信貸決策時往往會犯兩種錯誤：一是棄真,即拒絕了優(yōu)質(zhì)貸款；二是納偽,即接受了不良貸款。錯誤的信貸決策給銀行的資金安全帶來了巨大的風險隱患,而傳統(tǒng)的分析方法已經(jīng)很難適應(yīng)當今我做市場經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展形勢和監(jiān)管要求的改變,怎樣才能有效的識別客戶是否具有償還能力,增強信貸決策風險判斷力,就必須在信用風險管理體制上進行創(chuàng)新優(yōu)化。 本文從銀行的傳統(tǒng)決策分析角度出發(fā),重點分析了影響信貸決策的財務(wù)分析因素(含非報表因素和報表因素),詳細論述了財務(wù)非報表因素中目標市場的選擇、經(jīng)營的周期波動性、經(jīng)營的風險性及管理的風險性問題；并著重論述了財務(wù)報表因素中盈利指標、營運指標、償債指標,并結(jié)合財務(wù)分析工具即資產(chǎn)負債表、利潤表和現(xiàn)金流量表對企業(yè)的借款原因、償還能力、盈利能力進行分析,通過對傳統(tǒng)信貸決策中只能對財務(wù)報表因素進行風險分析的不足與缺陷,本文通過對財務(wù)分析方法的改進——VAR風險分析法來彌補了傳統(tǒng)分析方法過于簡單、不能夠建立系統(tǒng)性和關(guān)聯(lián)性的風險分析指標體系,缺乏科學(xué)依據(jù)、對行業(yè)和現(xiàn)金流量分析缺失的不足,進一步通過實證分析對本文的理論研究成果進行應(yīng)用檢驗和對比,本文的研究有助于銀行信貸從業(yè)人員結(jié)合實際環(huán)境制定出科學(xué)合理的信貸決策,降低犯兩種信貸決策錯誤的概率。
[Abstract]:The content of this paper is the improvement of bank credit decision. The bank is a special industry which takes risk as the management commodity, and is also a highly competitive industry. Its core competitiveness is reflected in the control ability of the risk, and the prevention and control of the risk are closely related to the credit decision. The decision-making process of bank credit personnel is related to whether the bank credit assets can be safely recovered in the future. Only a more comprehensive assessment of the various indicators of the borrowing enterprises, including financial statement indicators, financial non-statement indicators, Only by non-financial factors and credit factors can the security of credit assets be evaluated and rated. The traditional credit decision-making process is mainly by means of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, that is, the financial index of enterprises plus the empirical judgment of credit decision makers to form the final credit decision conclusion, in the actual operation, because of the asymmetry of information, Credit personnel often make two kinds of mistakes when making credit decisions: one is to abandon the truth, that is, to reject the quality loan; the other is to accept the fake, that is, to accept the bad loans. The wrong credit decision has brought huge risks to the bank's capital security, but the traditional analysis method has been difficult to adapt to the development situation of the market economy and the change of supervision requirements. How to effectively identify whether the customer has the ability to repay and enhance the judgment of credit decision-making risk, we must carry out innovation and optimization in the credit risk management system. From the point of view of traditional decision analysis of banks, this paper mainly analyzes the financial analysis factors (including non-statement factors and report factors) that affect credit decision-making, and discusses in detail the choice of target market in financial non-statement factors. The paper mainly discusses the profit index, operation index, debt repayment index of the financial statement factors, and combines the financial analysis tool, I. e., balance sheet, with the problems of the cycle volatility of operation, the risk of operation and the risk of management. The profit statement and the cash flow statement analyze the reasons of borrowing, the ability to repay and the profitability of the enterprise. Through the analysis of the deficiency and defect of the risk analysis of the financial statement factors in the traditional credit decision, In this paper, the VAR risk analysis method is improved to make up for the fact that the traditional analysis method is too simple to establish a systematic and relevant index system of risk analysis, which is lack of scientific basis. For the lack of industry and cash flow analysis, further through empirical analysis of the theoretical research results of the application of the test and comparison, The research in this paper is helpful for the bank credit practitioners to make scientific and reasonable credit decisions in combination with the actual environment, and to reduce the probability of making two kinds of credit decision mistakes.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.33;F832.4

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