本文選題：信貸決策 + 財(cái)務(wù)分析　； 參考：《西安工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文研究的內(nèi)容是銀行信貸決策的改進(jìn)研究。銀行是以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為經(jīng)營商品的特殊行業(yè),也是競爭性極強(qiáng)的行業(yè),其核心競爭力集中反映在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的掌控能力上,而風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防范與把控都與信貸決策息息相關(guān),銀行信貸人員的決策過程關(guān)系到以后銀行信貸資產(chǎn)是否能夠安全回收,只有更全面的去考核借款企業(yè)的各項(xiàng)指標(biāo),包含財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表指標(biāo)、財(cái)務(wù)非報(bào)表指標(biāo)、非財(cái)務(wù)因素及信用因素等,才能對信貸資產(chǎn)的安全性做出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)衡量和評級。傳統(tǒng)的信貸決策過程主要是借助于定量分析和定性分析為主,即企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)外加信貸決策人員的經(jīng)驗(yàn)判斷來形成最終的信貸決策結(jié)論,現(xiàn)實(shí)操作中,由于信息的不對稱,信貸人員在做信貸決策時(shí)往往會(huì)犯兩種錯(cuò)誤：一是棄真,即拒絕了優(yōu)質(zhì)貸款；二是納偽,即接受了不良貸款。錯(cuò)誤的信貸決策給銀行的資金安全帶來了巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隱患,而傳統(tǒng)的分析方法已經(jīng)很難適應(yīng)當(dāng)今我做市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展形勢和監(jiān)管要求的改變,怎樣才能有效的識別客戶是否具有償還能力,增強(qiáng)信貸決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)判斷力,就必須在信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體制上進(jìn)行創(chuàng)新優(yōu)化。 本文從銀行的傳統(tǒng)決策分析角度出發(fā),重點(diǎn)分析了影響信貸決策的財(cái)務(wù)分析因素(含非報(bào)表因素和報(bào)表因素),詳細(xì)論述了財(cái)務(wù)非報(bào)表因素中目標(biāo)市場的選擇、經(jīng)營的周期波動(dòng)性、經(jīng)營的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性及管理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性問題；并著重論述了財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表因素中盈利指標(biāo)、營運(yùn)指標(biāo)、償債指標(biāo),并結(jié)合財(cái)務(wù)分析工具即資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表、利潤表和現(xiàn)金流量表對企業(yè)的借款原因、償還能力、盈利能力進(jìn)行分析,通過對傳統(tǒng)信貸決策中只能對財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表因素進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的不足與缺陷,本文通過對財(cái)務(wù)分析方法的改進(jìn)——VAR風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析法來彌補(bǔ)了傳統(tǒng)分析方法過于簡單、不能夠建立系統(tǒng)性和關(guān)聯(lián)性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析指標(biāo)體系,缺乏科學(xué)依據(jù)、對行業(yè)和現(xiàn)金流量分析缺失的不足,進(jìn)一步通過實(shí)證分析對本文的理論研究成果進(jìn)行應(yīng)用檢驗(yàn)和對比,本文的研究有助于銀行信貸從業(yè)人員結(jié)合實(shí)際環(huán)境制定出科學(xué)合理的信貸決策,降低犯兩種信貸決策錯(cuò)誤的概率。
[Abstract]:The content of this paper is the improvement of bank credit decision. The bank is a special industry which takes risk as the management commodity, and is also a highly competitive industry. Its core competitiveness is reflected in the control ability of the risk, and the prevention and control of the risk are closely related to the credit decision. The decision-making process of bank credit personnel is related to whether the bank credit assets can be safely recovered in the future. Only a more comprehensive assessment of the various indicators of the borrowing enterprises, including financial statement indicators, financial non-statement indicators, Only by non-financial factors and credit factors can the security of credit assets be evaluated and rated. The traditional credit decision-making process is mainly by means of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, that is, the financial index of enterprises plus the empirical judgment of credit decision makers to form the final credit decision conclusion, in the actual operation, because of the asymmetry of information, Credit personnel often make two kinds of mistakes when making credit decisions: one is to abandon the truth, that is, to reject the quality loan; the other is to accept the fake, that is, to accept the bad loans. The wrong credit decision has brought huge risks to the bank's capital security, but the traditional analysis method has been difficult to adapt to the development situation of the market economy and the change of supervision requirements. How to effectively identify whether the customer has the ability to repay and enhance the judgment of credit decision-making risk, we must carry out innovation and optimization in the credit risk management system. From the point of view of traditional decision analysis of banks, this paper mainly analyzes the financial analysis factors (including non-statement factors and report factors) that affect credit decision-making, and discusses in detail the choice of target market in financial non-statement factors. The paper mainly discusses the profit index, operation index, debt repayment index of the financial statement factors, and combines the financial analysis tool, I. e., balance sheet, with the problems of the cycle volatility of operation, the risk of operation and the risk of management. The profit statement and the cash flow statement analyze the reasons of borrowing, the ability to repay and the profitability of the enterprise. Through the analysis of the deficiency and defect of the risk analysis of the financial statement factors in the traditional credit decision, In this paper, the VAR risk analysis method is improved to make up for the fact that the traditional analysis method is too simple to establish a systematic and relevant index system of risk analysis, which is lack of scientific basis. For the lack of industry and cash flow analysis, further through empirical analysis of the theoretical research results of the application of the test and comparison, The research in this paper is helpful for the bank credit practitioners to make scientific and reasonable credit decisions in combination with the actual environment, and to reduce the probability of making two kinds of credit decision mistakes.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.33;F832.4

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