本文選題：股價(jià)變動(dòng) + 實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)��； 參考：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在一些金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)達(dá)的國(guó)家,股票市場(chǎng)的健康運(yùn)行對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展具有一定的支撐作用。我國(guó)股市建立較晚,發(fā)展尚不成熟,在二十余年間股價(jià)也經(jīng)歷了多次暴漲暴跌。從國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)和歷史事件看,股市向好會(huì)對(duì)一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生促進(jìn)作用,但股價(jià)大幅、異�；虿焕硇缘谋q暴跌也會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)生沖擊。那么,股價(jià)變動(dòng)如何影響實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì),如何影響居民消費(fèi)、企業(yè)投資等經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng),其作用渠道和影響大小并沒(méi)有完全的被解釋清楚,現(xiàn)有的研究也尚未得出一致的、公認(rèn)的結(jié)論。隨著我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的快速發(fā)展,股市在整個(gè)金融體系、國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位和作用日益凸顯,股價(jià)變動(dòng)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響情況也開始備受關(guān)注。本文首先在局部均衡分析的思想上依次研究了我國(guó)股價(jià)變動(dòng)對(duì)消費(fèi)和投資的影響,然后基于一般均衡分析思想研究了在商品市場(chǎng)和貨幣市場(chǎng)均衡時(shí)股價(jià)變動(dòng)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)整體的影響。本文選取了 2000～2015年的月度數(shù)據(jù),通過(guò)構(gòu)建引入股價(jià)變量的兩個(gè)局部均衡模型和IS-LM擴(kuò)展模型,采用現(xiàn)代時(shí)間序列分析方法進(jìn)行研究,揭示了我國(guó)股價(jià)變動(dòng)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的過(guò)程、機(jī)制和程度。另外,股權(quán)分置改革的實(shí)施在我國(guó)股市發(fā)展中有著劃時(shí)代的意義,因此,本文還通過(guò)對(duì)股改前后分段處理和設(shè)置虛擬變量的方法來(lái)引入制度變革因素,考察股改對(duì)我國(guó)股市財(cái)富效應(yīng)、投資效應(yīng)和總體經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的影響。本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于彌補(bǔ)和完善了關(guān)于我國(guó)股市發(fā)展中股價(jià)變動(dòng)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的研究,具體包括以下三點(diǎn):第一,局部均衡分析和一般均衡分析相結(jié)合,本文從以上兩個(gè)視角研究了股價(jià)變動(dòng)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,研究方法更完善;第二,本文全面考察了股價(jià)變動(dòng)對(duì)消費(fèi)、投資和實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)整體的影響程度,研究?jī)?nèi)容更豐富;第三,考慮到股權(quán)分置改革對(duì)我國(guó)股市發(fā)展的影響之大,本文通過(guò)對(duì)股改前后分段處理和設(shè)置虛擬變量的方法來(lái)引入制度變革因素,考察股改在我國(guó)股市財(cái)富效應(yīng)、投資效應(yīng)和總體經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)發(fā)揮上的影響,研究問(wèn)題更全面。
[Abstract]:In some developed countries, the healthy operation of stock market plays a supporting role in the development of real economy. The stock market of our country was established late and immature, and the stock price also experienced a lot of ups and downs in more than 20 years. From the international experience and historical events, a good stock market will promote the development of a country's economy, but the stock price is large, abnormal or irrational skyrocketing and plummeting will also have an impact on the stability of the economy. Then, how the stock price changes affect the real economy, how to affect the resident consumption, enterprise investment and other economic activities, its role and impact has not been fully explained, the existing research has not yet reached a consistent, recognized conclusions. With the rapid development of stock market in China, stock market plays an increasingly important role in the whole financial system and national economy. First of all, this paper studies the influence of stock price changes on consumption and investment in turn on the idea of local equilibrium analysis. Then, based on the general equilibrium analysis, this paper studies the effect of stock price change on the real economy when the commodity market and money market are in equilibrium. This paper selects monthly data from 2000 to 2015, constructs two local equilibrium models with stock price variables and IS-LM extension model, and uses modern time series analysis method to study the process of stock price change affecting the real economy in China. Mechanism and extent In addition, the implementation of the split share structure reform has epoch-making significance in the development of the stock market in our country. Therefore, this paper also introduces the institutional reform factors through the methods of dealing with and setting virtual variables before and after the stock reform. To investigate the effect of stock reform on the wealth effect, investment effect and overall economic effect of China's stock market. The innovation of this paper is to make up for and improve the research on the impact of stock price changes on the real economy in the development of China's stock market, including the following three points: first, the combination of local equilibrium analysis and general equilibrium analysis. This paper studies the impact of stock price changes on the real economy from the above two perspectives, the research method is more perfect; second, this paper comprehensively examines the impact of stock price changes on consumption, investment and the real economy as a whole, the content of the study is more abundant; third, Considering the great influence of the reform of split share structure on the development of China's stock market, this paper introduces the factors of institutional change by dealing with and setting up virtual variables before and after the stock reform, and examines the wealth effect of stock reform in China's stock market. The investment effect and the overall economic effect exert the influence, the research question is more comprehensive.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

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