本文選題：主權(quán)財(cái)富基金 + 驅(qū)動(dòng)因素��； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：主權(quán)財(cái)富基金在經(jīng)歷了逾半個(gè)世紀(jì)的蟄伏之后,跨入新世紀(jì)后逐漸成長為一種引人注目的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象。2013年底,全球最大的80家主權(quán)財(cái)富基金的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模增加至6.1萬億美元,成為一類非常重要的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者。從歷史上看,是石油大國推動(dòng)了主權(quán)財(cái)富基金的崛起,但近二三十年,石油因素正逐漸讓位于包括預(yù)防老齡化和應(yīng)對社會(huì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型在內(nèi)的社會(huì)層面需求。此外,2008年爆發(fā)的全球金融危機(jī)催生了旨在扶持國內(nèi)新興產(chǎn)業(yè)和中小企業(yè)的發(fā)達(dá)國家主權(quán)財(cái)富基金。至此,主權(quán)財(cái)富基金群體內(nèi)出現(xiàn)以東亞新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體、傳統(tǒng)發(fā)達(dá)國家和中東石油國家為主要代表的特征分化。我國同樣擁有龐大的主權(quán)財(cái)富基金,如何高效利用基金資源是關(guān)系到國家建設(shè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的大問題。本文致力于通過探討影響主權(quán)財(cái)富基金規(guī)模變動(dòng)的不同因素,為我國主權(quán)財(cái)富基金的合理發(fā)展提供有益建議。本文在梳理前人研究的基礎(chǔ)之上,引入主權(quán)財(cái)富基金分類研究的研究方法和社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)兩維度的分析框架,以美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅斯托提出的“經(jīng)濟(jì)成長理論”為基礎(chǔ),從實(shí)證的角度對本文提出的若干假設(shè)進(jìn)行了有效檢驗(yàn)。本文整理了2007年至2012年六年間刻畫國家社會(huì)發(fā)展水平和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度的七項(xiàng)指標(biāo),構(gòu)建動(dòng)態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)的廣義矩估計(jì)模型。首先對樣本整體進(jìn)行分析,尋找影響各類基金規(guī)模變動(dòng)的共性因素。之后使用SYS-GMM方法對三類主權(quán)財(cái)富基金樣本進(jìn)行單獨(dú)分析,尋找每一類基金的個(gè)性特征,然后將三類結(jié)果進(jìn)行對比,并據(jù)此為我國主權(quán)財(cái)富基金的合理發(fā)展提出有益建議。通過研究和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),本文證實(shí)了如下兩方面假設(shè)：(1)主權(quán)財(cái)富基金內(nèi)部確實(shí)出現(xiàn)了特征分化,各類型主權(quán)財(cái)富基金規(guī)模所受影響呈現(xiàn)出不同的群體化特征；(2)社會(huì)因素,尤其是人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)和社會(huì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷對主權(quán)財(cái)富基金的規(guī)模有非常顯著的影響。本文認(rèn)為,所在國發(fā)展階段差異是導(dǎo)致主權(quán)財(cái)富基金規(guī)模變動(dòng)影響因素差異的主要原因。研究認(rèn)為發(fā)達(dá)國家所持主權(quán)財(cái)富基金遇到的問題和解決措施為本文提供了有益的思路和借鑒。在這里文章建議中國的主權(quán)財(cái)富基金在未來的發(fā)展中應(yīng)當(dāng)在以下兩個(gè)方面進(jìn)行戰(zhàn)略準(zhǔn)備：(1)關(guān)注中國社會(huì)的福利化趨勢,為解決我國社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)型過程中出現(xiàn)的人口老齡化問題加劇和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整等問題進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)備。(2)增加對國內(nèi)行業(yè)的扶持力度,針對國內(nèi)特定行業(yè)進(jìn)行戰(zhàn)略性扶持。本文的創(chuàng)新之處主要體現(xiàn)在如下幾點(diǎn)：(1)構(gòu)建針對主權(quán)財(cái)富基金分類研究的分析框架,將當(dāng)前主權(quán)財(cái)富基金歸為東亞新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體、傳統(tǒng)發(fā)達(dá)國家、中東石油國三類展開研究(2)基于社會(huì)階段差異的角度分析基金規(guī)模變動(dòng)影響因素,將刻畫社會(huì)發(fā)展的指標(biāo)引入分析框架。文章基于羅斯托“經(jīng)濟(jì)成長理論”進(jìn)行分析,首次將人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)和社會(huì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)兩方面指標(biāo)引入對于主權(quán)財(cái)富基金規(guī)模變動(dòng)的分析框架。(3)引入了矩估計(jì)方法對問題進(jìn)行定量分析。研究采用了處理動(dòng)態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)的矩估計(jì)方法,將因變量滯后項(xiàng)加入實(shí)證模型增加研究的解釋力度,且消除了可能存在的內(nèi)生性對于計(jì)量結(jié)果的影響。
[Abstract]:After more than half a century of dormancy, the sovereign wealth fund grew into a remarkable social and economic phenomenon after the new century. At the end of.2013, the world's largest 80 sovereign wealth funds increased to $6 trillion and 100 billion, becoming a very important institutional investor. Historically, it was a big oil country. The rise of sovereign wealth funds has been promoted, but in the last twenty or thirty years, the oil factor is gradually allowing the social level, including the prevention of aging and the transformation of the social industrial structure. In addition, the 2008 global financial crisis has created a sovereign wealth fund, which aims to support domestic emerging industries and small and medium-sized enterprises. At this point, the sovereign wealth fund group is divided into the characteristics of the East Asian emerging economies, the traditional developed countries and the Middle East oil countries as the main representatives. Our country also has a huge sovereign wealth fund. How to effectively use the fund resources is a big problem related to the country's construction and economic transformation. The different factors of the scale change of the wealth fund provide useful suggestions for the rational development of the sovereign wealth fund in China. On the basis of combing the predecessors' research, this paper introduces the research method of the classified study of sovereign wealth funds and the social and economic two dimension analysis framework, which is based on the "economic growth theory" proposed by Rostow, an American economist. On the basis of this, some hypotheses are effectively tested from an empirical point of view. This paper collated seven indicators that depicted the level of national social development and the degree of economic development in the six years from 2007 to 2012, and constructed a generalized moment estimation model of dynamic panel data. First, the whole sample was analyzed to find the influence of various kinds of funds. Then the SYS-GMM method is used to analyze the three types of sovereign wealth fund samples separately to find the personality characteristics of each type of fund, and then compare the three types of results, and make some useful suggestions for the rational development of China's sovereign wealth fund. Through the research and empirical test, this paper confirms the following two The aspects are as follows: (1) there is a characteristic differentiation within the sovereign wealth fund, and the influence of various types of sovereign wealth funds has different demographic characteristics; (2) the social factors, especially the population age structure and the social industrial structure change, have a very significant impact on the scale of sovereign wealth funds. The difference in the development stage is the main reason that leads to the difference of the influence factors of the scale change of the sovereign wealth fund. The research holds that the problems and solutions of the sovereign wealth funds held by the developed countries provide the useful ideas and lessons for this article. Here the article suggests that China's sovereign wealth fund should be below two in the future development. Strategic preparation for the following aspects: (1) pay attention to the welfare trend of Chinese society, prepare for solving the problems of population aging and industrial structure adjustment in the process of social transformation in China. (2) increase support for domestic industry and strategic support to specific domestic industries. The main innovations of this paper are The following points are as follows: (1) to construct an analytical framework for the classification of sovereign wealth funds, and to classify the current sovereign wealth funds into the emerging economies of East Asia, the traditional developed countries, and the three types of Middle East oil countries (2) to analyze the influence factors of the change in the scale of the fund based on the differences in the social stage, which will depict the indicators of social development. Based on the analysis of rostot's "economic growth theory", the article introduces the two aspects of population age structure and social industrial structure into the analysis framework of the scale change of sovereign wealth funds for the first time. (3) the moment estimation method is introduced to quantitative analysis of the problem. In addition, we add the lagged item of the dependent variable to the empirical model to increase the explanatory power of the study, and eliminate the possible influence of the endogeneity on the measurement results.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

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