本文選題：主權(quán)財富基金 + 驅(qū)動因素�。� 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：主權(quán)財富基金在經(jīng)歷了逾半個世紀的蟄伏之后,跨入新世紀后逐漸成長為一種引人注目的社會經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象。2013年底,全球最大的80家主權(quán)財富基金的資產(chǎn)規(guī)模增加至6.1萬億美元,成為一類非常重要的機構(gòu)投資者。從歷史上看,是石油大國推動了主權(quán)財富基金的崛起,但近二三十年,石油因素正逐漸讓位于包括預(yù)防老齡化和應(yīng)對社會產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型在內(nèi)的社會層面需求。此外,2008年爆發(fā)的全球金融危機催生了旨在扶持國內(nèi)新興產(chǎn)業(yè)和中小企業(yè)的發(fā)達國家主權(quán)財富基金。至此,主權(quán)財富基金群體內(nèi)出現(xiàn)以東亞新興經(jīng)濟體、傳統(tǒng)發(fā)達國家和中東石油國家為主要代表的特征分化。我國同樣擁有龐大的主權(quán)財富基金,如何高效利用基金資源是關(guān)系到國家建設(shè)和經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型的大問題。本文致力于通過探討影響主權(quán)財富基金規(guī)模變動的不同因素,為我國主權(quán)財富基金的合理發(fā)展提供有益建議。本文在梳理前人研究的基礎(chǔ)之上,引入主權(quán)財富基金分類研究的研究方法和社會、經(jīng)濟兩維度的分析框架,以美國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家羅斯托提出的“經(jīng)濟成長理論”為基礎(chǔ),從實證的角度對本文提出的若干假設(shè)進行了有效檢驗。本文整理了2007年至2012年六年間刻畫國家社會發(fā)展水平和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展程度的七項指標,構(gòu)建動態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)的廣義矩估計模型。首先對樣本整體進行分析,尋找影響各類基金規(guī)模變動的共性因素。之后使用SYS-GMM方法對三類主權(quán)財富基金樣本進行單獨分析,尋找每一類基金的個性特征,然后將三類結(jié)果進行對比,并據(jù)此為我國主權(quán)財富基金的合理發(fā)展提出有益建議。通過研究和實證檢驗,本文證實了如下兩方面假設(shè)：(1)主權(quán)財富基金內(nèi)部確實出現(xiàn)了特征分化,各類型主權(quán)財富基金規(guī)模所受影響呈現(xiàn)出不同的群體化特征；(2)社會因素,尤其是人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)和社會產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷對主權(quán)財富基金的規(guī)模有非常顯著的影響。本文認為,所在國發(fā)展階段差異是導(dǎo)致主權(quán)財富基金規(guī)模變動影響因素差異的主要原因。研究認為發(fā)達國家所持主權(quán)財富基金遇到的問題和解決措施為本文提供了有益的思路和借鑒。在這里文章建議中國的主權(quán)財富基金在未來的發(fā)展中應(yīng)當在以下兩個方面進行戰(zhàn)略準備：(1)關(guān)注中國社會的福利化趨勢,為解決我國社會轉(zhuǎn)型過程中出現(xiàn)的人口老齡化問題加劇和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整等問題進行準備。(2)增加對國內(nèi)行業(yè)的扶持力度,針對國內(nèi)特定行業(yè)進行戰(zhàn)略性扶持。本文的創(chuàng)新之處主要體現(xiàn)在如下幾點：(1)構(gòu)建針對主權(quán)財富基金分類研究的分析框架,將當前主權(quán)財富基金歸為東亞新興經(jīng)濟體、傳統(tǒng)發(fā)達國家、中東石油國三類展開研究(2)基于社會階段差異的角度分析基金規(guī)模變動影響因素,將刻畫社會發(fā)展的指標引入分析框架。文章基于羅斯托“經(jīng)濟成長理論”進行分析,首次將人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)和社會產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)兩方面指標引入對于主權(quán)財富基金規(guī)模變動的分析框架。(3)引入了矩估計方法對問題進行定量分析。研究采用了處理動態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)的矩估計方法,將因變量滯后項加入實證模型增加研究的解釋力度,且消除了可能存在的內(nèi)生性對于計量結(jié)果的影響。
[Abstract]:After more than half a century of dormancy, the sovereign wealth fund grew into a remarkable social and economic phenomenon after the new century. At the end of.2013, the world's largest 80 sovereign wealth funds increased to $6 trillion and 100 billion, becoming a very important institutional investor. Historically, it was a big oil country. The rise of sovereign wealth funds has been promoted, but in the last twenty or thirty years, the oil factor is gradually allowing the social level, including the prevention of aging and the transformation of the social industrial structure. In addition, the 2008 global financial crisis has created a sovereign wealth fund, which aims to support domestic emerging industries and small and medium-sized enterprises. At this point, the sovereign wealth fund group is divided into the characteristics of the East Asian emerging economies, the traditional developed countries and the Middle East oil countries as the main representatives. Our country also has a huge sovereign wealth fund. How to effectively use the fund resources is a big problem related to the country's construction and economic transformation. The different factors of the scale change of the wealth fund provide useful suggestions for the rational development of the sovereign wealth fund in China. On the basis of combing the predecessors' research, this paper introduces the research method of the classified study of sovereign wealth funds and the social and economic two dimension analysis framework, which is based on the "economic growth theory" proposed by Rostow, an American economist. On the basis of this, some hypotheses are effectively tested from an empirical point of view. This paper collated seven indicators that depicted the level of national social development and the degree of economic development in the six years from 2007 to 2012, and constructed a generalized moment estimation model of dynamic panel data. First, the whole sample was analyzed to find the influence of various kinds of funds. Then the SYS-GMM method is used to analyze the three types of sovereign wealth fund samples separately to find the personality characteristics of each type of fund, and then compare the three types of results, and make some useful suggestions for the rational development of China's sovereign wealth fund. Through the research and empirical test, this paper confirms the following two The aspects are as follows: (1) there is a characteristic differentiation within the sovereign wealth fund, and the influence of various types of sovereign wealth funds has different demographic characteristics; (2) the social factors, especially the population age structure and the social industrial structure change, have a very significant impact on the scale of sovereign wealth funds. The difference in the development stage is the main reason that leads to the difference of the influence factors of the scale change of the sovereign wealth fund. The research holds that the problems and solutions of the sovereign wealth funds held by the developed countries provide the useful ideas and lessons for this article. Here the article suggests that China's sovereign wealth fund should be below two in the future development. Strategic preparation for the following aspects: (1) pay attention to the welfare trend of Chinese society, prepare for solving the problems of population aging and industrial structure adjustment in the process of social transformation in China. (2) increase support for domestic industry and strategic support to specific domestic industries. The main innovations of this paper are The following points are as follows: (1) to construct an analytical framework for the classification of sovereign wealth funds, and to classify the current sovereign wealth funds into the emerging economies of East Asia, the traditional developed countries, and the three types of Middle East oil countries (2) to analyze the influence factors of the change in the scale of the fund based on the differences in the social stage, which will depict the indicators of social development. Based on the analysis of rostot's "economic growth theory", the article introduces the two aspects of population age structure and social industrial structure into the analysis framework of the scale change of sovereign wealth funds for the first time. (3) the moment estimation method is introduced to quantitative analysis of the problem. In addition, we add the lagged item of the dependent variable to the empirical model to increase the explanatory power of the study, and eliminate the possible influence of the endogeneity on the measurement results.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51

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