本文選題：城建資金 + 城投債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　； 參考：《西安石油大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)，作為地方政府債務(wù)融資的方式之一，城投公司債券融資在中央政府積極財(cái)政政策的驅(qū)動(dòng)下，呈現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展，潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不斷突出。識(shí)別和計(jì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的前提，設(shè)計(jì)有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制機(jī)制是控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基礎(chǔ)，尋求一條解決當(dāng)前嚴(yán)峻的城投債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和控制問(wèn)題的道路，是急需我們?nèi)プ龅木o迫任務(wù)。 本文首先梳理和總結(jié)城投債券融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)，綜述了城投債券的概念、性質(zhì)、融資現(xiàn)狀和特點(diǎn)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類別和影響因素、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)量模型及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控實(shí)證研究概況。然后在此基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)城投債的發(fā)債情況、存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)引發(fā)因素及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行分析，為管理和控制債券風(fēng)險(xiǎn)建立理論基礎(chǔ)。 接著以四川、陜西、重慶、云南、甘肅2000年至2012年的財(cái)政數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，運(yùn)用改進(jìn)的KMV模型對(duì)我國(guó)西部地區(qū)城投債的發(fā)行規(guī)模進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，以北京、上海、山東、江蘇、廣東為研究樣本，對(duì)東部地區(qū)城投債發(fā)債規(guī)模進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，然后進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析。有效地預(yù)測(cè)了城投債的安全發(fā)債規(guī)模，為管理城投債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供參考。 最后，以鎮(zhèn)江、懷化、咸陽(yáng)、天津等具體的城投債為例，，研究發(fā)債規(guī)模、資產(chǎn)規(guī)模、資金運(yùn)營(yíng)狀況、資金償付情況對(duì)債券風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響。分析出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制機(jī)制設(shè)計(jì)的三個(gè)關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)：發(fā)債規(guī)�？刂�、資金運(yùn)營(yíng)控制、資金償付和管理控制，提出具體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as one of the ways of local government debt financing, the bond financing of the city investment company, driven by the central government's active fiscal policy, presents a leap forward development, and the potential risks are constantly outstanding. The identification and measurement risk are the premise of risk management. The design of an effective risk control system is the basis for controlling the risk and seeks a solution to the problem. The path of risk management and control before the serious urban debt investment is an urgent task that we urgently need to do.
This paper first reviews and summarizes the relevant literature on the risk management of city investment bonds, summarizes the concept, nature, financing status and characteristics, risk categories and factors, risk measurement models and empirical research on risk management. On this basis, there are risks, risk factors, and risk factors on the basis of this. The theory of risk control is analyzed to establish a theoretical foundation for managing and controlling bond risk.
Then based on the financial data of Sichuan, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Yunnan and Gansu from 2000 to 2012, we use the improved KMV model to carry out an empirical study on the scale of the issuance of urban investment debt in the western region of China, and take Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, Jiangsu and Guangdong as the research samples to predict the scale of the debt issuance in the eastern region, and then make a comparative analysis. It effectively forecasts the scale of the security bonds issued by the city investment bonds, and provides reference for managing the risk of the city's investment bonds.
Finally, taking Zhenjiang, Huaihua, Xianyang and Tianjin as an example, the paper studies the impact of debt scale, asset scale, capital operation status, and fund reimbursement situation on bond risk. It analyzes three key points in the design of risk control mechanism: debt scale control, capital operation control, fund reimbursement and management control, and put forward specific risks. Control measures.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

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3 馬廣s

本文編號(hào)：1792101