本文選題：房地產(chǎn)信貸規(guī)模 + 個(gè)人住房貸款　； 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：2003年,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)成為我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。在接下來的10年間,房地產(chǎn)市場蓬勃發(fā)展,成為推動(dòng)國家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的中堅(jiān)力量。引導(dǎo)和促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定健康發(fā)展,有利于保持國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)快速增長,有利于滿足廣大群眾的基本住房消費(fèi)需求。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)屬于資金密集型產(chǎn)業(yè),但不同于其他產(chǎn)業(yè),具有建設(shè)周期長、資金需求量大、產(chǎn)品價(jià)值高的特點(diǎn)。 由于我國房地產(chǎn)金融市場不夠發(fā)達(dá),房地產(chǎn)市場的融資渠道比較單一,其資金主要來源于銀行貸款。因此,我國房地產(chǎn)市場與信貸市場密切聯(lián)系,兩者互相支持互相影響。房地產(chǎn)信貸包括房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款和個(gè)人住房貸款兩部分,分別滿足房地產(chǎn)市場供給方和需求方的資金需求。房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款的投放促進(jìn)了房地產(chǎn)市場供給的增長,而個(gè)人住房貸款的投放促進(jìn)了房地產(chǎn)市場需求的增長。商業(yè)銀行對供需雙方的信貸支持力度不同,將會(huì)影響房地產(chǎn)市場的供給和需求,進(jìn)而影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格。 本文在已有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,提出從增量層面,研究房地產(chǎn)信貸與房價(jià)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系。首先針對房地產(chǎn)信貸與房價(jià)的相互影響機(jī)制進(jìn)行理論分析,得出兩者相互促進(jìn)并同時(shí)受到外部因素的影響。受篇幅限制,本文側(cè)重研究房地產(chǎn)信貸對房價(jià)的影響。其次,在對現(xiàn)狀描述的基礎(chǔ)上,對房地產(chǎn)信貸規(guī)模與房價(jià)進(jìn)行定性分析,并進(jìn)一步分析房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款和個(gè)人住房貸款對房價(jià)的影響。再次,運(yùn)用格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)方法,對房地產(chǎn)信貸規(guī)模增速和房價(jià)增速進(jìn)行了因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,兩者互為格蘭杰因果關(guān)系,房地產(chǎn)信貸規(guī)模增速提高會(huì)推動(dòng)房價(jià)增速上漲,反過來亦成立。在以上實(shí)證研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本文使用VAR狀模型進(jìn)一步研究個(gè)人住房貸款增速和房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款增速對房價(jià)增速的影響,實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,短期內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款增速提高會(huì)使房價(jià)增速上漲,但是從長期來看,會(huì)使房價(jià)增速放緩；而個(gè)人住房貸款增速對房價(jià)增速起到正向推動(dòng)作用。最后,結(jié)合理論和實(shí)證分析,針對控制房價(jià)增速過快上漲,提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:In 2003, the real estate industry became the pillar industry of our national economy.Over the next 10 years, the real estate market flourished and became the backbone of the country's macroeconomic development.Guiding and promoting the sustained, stable and healthy development of the real estate industry is conducive to maintaining the steady and rapid growth of the national economy and meeting the basic housing consumption needs of the broad masses of people.The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry, but different from other industries, it has the characteristics of long construction period, large capital demand and high product value.Because of the undeveloped real estate financial market in our country, the financing channel of real estate market is relatively single, and its funds mainly come from bank loans.Therefore, China's real estate market and credit markets are closely linked, the two support each other.Real estate credit includes two parts: real estate development loan and personal housing loan, which meet the demand and supply side of the real estate market.The real estate development loan has promoted the real estate market supply growth, while the individual housing loan investment has promoted the real estate market demand growth.Different credit support from commercial banks will affect the supply and demand of the real estate market and then affect the real estate prices.Based on the existing research results, this paper proposes to study the interactive relationship between real estate credit and house prices from the incremental level.Firstly, the mutual influence mechanism of real estate credit and house price is analyzed theoretically, and it is concluded that both of them promote each other and are influenced by external factors at the same time.Limited by space, this paper focuses on the impact of real estate credit on housing prices.Secondly, on the basis of the description of the present situation, this paper makes a qualitative analysis on the scale of real estate credit and housing prices, and further analyzes the impact of real estate development loans and personal housing loans on housing prices.Thirdly, using the Granger causality test method, the paper tests the real estate credit scale growth rate and the housing price growth rate. The empirical results show that the two are Granger causality.The increase in the size of real estate credit will drive house prices up and vice versa.On the basis of the above empirical research, this paper uses the VAR model to further study the impact of personal housing loan growth rate and real estate development loan growth rate on the housing price growth rate, the empirical results show that,Higher lending growth in the short term will increase house prices, but in the long run it will slow them down; personal housing loans will have a positive effect on home prices.Finally, combined with theoretical and empirical analysis, to control the rapid increase in house prices, put forward relevant policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F832.45

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