本文選題：房地產(chǎn)投資 + 空間計(jì)量分析�。� 參考：《云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程加快,促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),從而帶動(dòng)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,目前我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的支柱行業(yè),與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展有著密切聯(lián)系。近年來,雖然房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展速度加快,但是發(fā)展極不均衡,各地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)投資存在顯著差異。究其原因,市場(chǎng)環(huán)境時(shí)刻影響著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)大發(fā)展,同時(shí)也影響了房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。因此,合理分析我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)投資的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境,重點(diǎn)分析市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程的影響,有利于政府對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控,對(duì)于保持房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康、穩(wěn)定發(fā)展具有深遠(yuǎn)意義。基于上述分析,本文側(cè)重以市場(chǎng)環(huán)境為背景,以我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)投資為研究對(duì)象,在總結(jié)已有理論與研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,以宏觀層面上的分析為主,側(cè)重空間布局分析,即分析各省、自治區(qū)、直轄市的市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程對(duì)房地產(chǎn)投資的影響。通過運(yùn)用1999-2015年我國(guó)31個(gè)省(自治區(qū)、直轄市)房地產(chǎn)投資數(shù)據(jù)和市場(chǎng)化指數(shù),試圖加入空間因素,分析市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程對(duì)房地產(chǎn)投資格局的影響。本文首先分析了房地產(chǎn)投資和市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程二者之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系,其次分別進(jìn)行空間自相關(guān)檢驗(yàn),最后運(yùn)用空間面板模型將市場(chǎng)化指數(shù)作為主要控制變量,并選取其他控制變量對(duì)我國(guó)全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)及東、中、西部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)投資布局進(jìn)行分析。本文的主要內(nèi)容和結(jié)論如下:1、通過對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)投資及市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程的現(xiàn)狀分析發(fā)現(xiàn)二者均存在區(qū)域差異性,理論分析表明,市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程影響了房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。房地產(chǎn)投資作為房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的一個(gè)重要組成部分,通過回歸分析發(fā)現(xiàn),市場(chǎng)化程度影響了房地產(chǎn)投資格局的形成。2、通過對(duì)我國(guó)1999-2014年房地產(chǎn)投資額及市場(chǎng)化程度空間相關(guān)性檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn):一方面,1999-2003年房地產(chǎn)投資不存在空間相關(guān)性,自2004年起我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)投資開始呈現(xiàn)出顯著的空間作用,房地產(chǎn)投資較高的區(qū)域,容易受到周邊地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)投資的影響;房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展程度與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平低的區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)投資最容易受到市場(chǎng)需求的影響。另一方面,2010年以來各地區(qū)市場(chǎng)化程度也逐漸開始存在空間相關(guān)性。3、分析了我國(guó)各地區(qū)市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程對(duì)房地產(chǎn)投資影響的差異性。本文按照統(tǒng)計(jì)口徑的不同劃分時(shí)間段,為了深入剖析房地產(chǎn)投資的差異性特征,采用空間面板數(shù)據(jù)模型深入分析全國(guó)地區(qū)、東、中、西部地區(qū)市場(chǎng)化對(duì)房地產(chǎn)投資格局的影響,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)各地區(qū)影響程度存在顯著差異,西部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)投資受市場(chǎng)化影響較大,東中部地區(qū)影響效果不明顯。該研究結(jié)論有助于更加清晰地認(rèn)識(shí)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)投資市場(chǎng),了解其發(fā)展?fàn)顩r及差異性特征,明確不同影響因素對(duì)房地產(chǎn)投資的影響程度,為保障我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的有序進(jìn)行,為制定差別化的房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策,為保障不同城市房地產(chǎn)投資協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提供參考。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the marketization process has accelerated, promoted the economic growth, thus promoted the development of the real estate industry. At present, the real estate industry of our country has become the pillar industry of the economic development, and has close relation with the development of the national economy.In recent years, although the speed of development of real estate industry is accelerating, the development of real estate industry is extremely uneven, and there are significant differences in real estate investment in different regions.The reason is that the market environment affects the development of social economy and real estate industry.Therefore, the reasonable analysis of the market environment of real estate investment in China and the analysis of the influence of the market-oriented process are beneficial to the government's regulation and control of the real estate market, and are of far-reaching significance to the maintenance of the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.Based on the above analysis, this paper focuses on the background of the market environment, taking real estate investment as the research object, on the basis of summarizing the existing theories and research results, focusing on the macro-level analysis, focusing on the spatial layout analysis.Namely analyze the influence of the marketization process of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government on real estate investment.By using the real estate investment data and marketization index of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) from 1999 to 2015, this paper attempts to add spatial factors to analyze the influence of marketization process on the real estate investment pattern.This paper first analyzes the relationship between real estate investment and market-oriented process, then carries out spatial autocorrelation test, finally uses the spatial panel model to take the market-oriented index as the main control variable.And select other control variables to analyze the real estate investment layout in the whole country and in the east, middle and west regions.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. By analyzing the current situation of real estate investment and marketization in China, we find that there are regional differences between them. The theoretical analysis shows that the marketization process affects the development of real estate industry.Real estate investment as an important part of the real estate industry, through regression analysis found,The degree of marketization affects the formation of real estate investment pattern. Through the spatial correlation test of real estate investment and marketization degree in China from 1999 to 2014, it is found that there is no spatial correlation between real estate investment and real estate investment from 1999 to 2003.Since 2004, the real estate investment in our country has been playing a significant role in space. The regions with higher real estate investment are vulnerable to the influence of the real estate investment in the surrounding areas.Regional real estate investment with low level of real estate market development and economic development is most vulnerable to market demand.On the other hand, since 2010, the degree of regional marketization has gradually begun to exist spatial correlation. 3. This paper analyzes the differences of the impact of the process of regional marketization on real estate investment in China.In this paper, in order to analyze the characteristics of the difference of real estate investment, the paper analyzes the influence of marketization on the pattern of real estate investment in the whole country, east, middle and west by using the spatial panel data model according to the different time periods of statistical caliber.The results show that there are significant differences in the degree of influence between different regions. The real estate investment in the western region is greatly affected by the marketization, but the effect in the eastern and central regions is not obvious.The conclusion of this study is helpful to understand the real estate investment market of our country more clearly, to understand its development condition and the difference characteristic, to make clear the influence degree of the different influence factors on the real estate investment, in order to ensure the orderly development of the real estate market in our country.In order to make differential real estate regulation and control policy, to ensure the coordinated development of real estate investment in different cities to provide a reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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